Infinity
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Documents about Infinity
136: It's Happening, Isn't It?
Event firm ReedPop, the company behind PAX, Comic-Con and EGX, will produce E3 2023, and the newsletter author reads this as promising for the show's revival.
- ReedPop, the firm behind PAX and Comic-Con, has been selected to produce E3 2023, marking a significant shift in the management of the industry's flagship event.
- The US video game market is projected to decline by 8.7% in 2022, with total spending expected to reach $55.5 billion due to economic pressures, hardware supply issues, and a quieter release calendar.
- Major publishers are increasingly bypassing centralized industry events in favor of independent, direct-to-consumer digital showcases that offer higher engagement and lower costs.
July 2022: Monthly Market Update
Blockchain gaming in July 2022 was in a consolidation phase: no industry-changing releases or NFT hype, but early signs of recovery as Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded and fallout from the Luna crash faded.
- Total web3 gaming funding reached $291 million in July 2022, marking a 21% increase over June despite broader market volatility.
- Secondary NFT transaction volumes remained stagnant, continuing a downward trend that has returned to levels seen one year prior.
- Unique Active Wallets (UAW) for top blockchain games remained relatively flat in July, with casual titles like Solitaire Blitz showing significant growth while Arc8 saw a 35% decline in UAW.
Axie Infinity: Redemption or Ruin?
Axie Infinity entered a steep, multi-dimensional decline in 2022, and the evidence argues that its play-to-earn model is struggling to sustain itself.
- Axie Infinity is experiencing a critical ecosystem collapse, evidenced by a sustained loss of over 250,000 daily active users per month that the free-to-play Axie Origin update failed to reverse.
- The value of core ecosystem assets, including AXS tokens, SLP currency, and Axie NFTs, has plummeted between 82% and 99% from their historical peaks.
- The project's financial stability has severely deteriorated, with land NFT prices falling 94% from 2021 highs and the community treasury suffering an 81% write-down in total value.
Is Diablo Immortal Fun for Mortal Wallets? - The Metacast by Naavik
The gaming industry is currently navigating a critical transition as major franchises attempt to adapt their core experiences for mobile platforms and broader ecosystem expansion.
- Aggressive monetization in mobile titles like Diablo Immortal, where character upgrades can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, risks alienating core fanbases and inviting increased global regulatory scrutiny.
- Successful mobile adaptation of major franchises requires bespoke development rather than simple ports, as evidenced by the performance of Apex Legends Mobile.
- Long-term mobile viability is increasingly dependent on sophisticated live-ops, personalized player segmentation, and strategic partnerships with experienced developers like Tencent.
How to Get Started in Blockchain Gaming
This Naavik and Forte deep dive, written by Matt Dion and dated June 8, 2022, is a guide for game developers beginning blockchain game development.
- The article identifies five foundational questions for developers, beginning with whether a blockchain is being used for the right reasons.
- The article states that if more people take money out of a game economy than put into it, the ecosystem is fundamentally unsustainable.
- For Thetan Arena, the article reports 171% and 199% increases in downloads and revenue within 60 days, compared with Heroes Strike's entire lifetime performance.
Land Value Tax in Online Games and Virtual Worlds: A How-To Guide
Lars Doucet and Dan Cook argue that virtual worlds containing land-like assets, including Ultima Online, Star Wars Galaxies, Final Fantasy XIV, and metaverse platforms, predictably suffer land crises.
- Land Value Tax (LVT) mitigates speculation by increasing the cost of holding scarce virtual assets, forcing land into the hands of players who will put it to its highest and best use.
- To calculate LVT, developers must distinguish between the value of 'improvements' (player-added value) and 'land' (inherent value), using the equation Total Market Value = Improvements Value + Land Value.
- Short-term leases with Vickrey auctions are the recommended implementation method for new games due to their simplicity and effectiveness in price discovery.
How TABS Creator Landfall Got Discovery Right!
Swedish indie studio Landfall, maker of Totally Accurate Battle Simulator (TABS), is profiled through an interview with CEO and game designer Wilhelm Nylund, followed by a roundup of game discovery and platform news from May 2022.
- Landfall Games successfully kickstarts multiplayer player bases by offering titles for free during the first 24 to 100 hours, resulting in three million downloads for Totally Accurate Battlegrounds and one million for Knightfall.
- Visual legibility and physics-based interactions are critical for market discovery, as they allow games to go viral easily through short-form video content like GIFs and YouTube clips.
- Sandbox and survival genres provide smaller development teams more flexibility than AAA genres because players prioritize creative experimentation over the high-polish standards required for competitive shooters or MOBAs.
Loot: The Epitome of Composability
The Loot project, launched in August 2021 by Vine creator Dom Hoffman, is presented as a seminal experiment in composable, bottom-up, community-driven blockchain applications.
- The Loot project represents a bottom-up, community-driven approach to blockchain gaming that contrasts with the centralized, VC-funded models of projects like Axie Infinity and The Sandbox.
- Loot assets consist of simple, text-based lists of RPG-style items, with no canonical visual representation, leaving the interpretation and development of the game world entirely to the community.
- The market capitalization for original Loot bags peaked at approximately $293 million on August 6, 2021, before declining to $35 million, representing a nearly 90% loss in value.
The Future of Axie Infinity with Philip La, Game Lead at Sky Mavis - The Metacast by Naavik
The future of Axie Infinity centers on a strategic pivot from speculative, earnings-driven mechanics toward a sustainable, fun-first gaming experience.
- Axie Infinity is pivoting from speculative, earnings-driven mechanics to a fun-first model that prioritizes high-quality gameplay, improved graphics, and intuitive progression.
- The platform has adopted a freemium model to lower barriers to entry, allowing players to access the 3v3 battle loop and PvE content without an initial financial investment.
- Economic stability is being managed through a balanced system of token sinks and sources designed to discourage pure extraction and promote long-term sustainability.
Blockchain Gaming with the Web3 OG, Shahaf Bar Geffen
The blockchain gaming sector is undergoing a critical transition from speculative, finance-driven models toward a sustainable paradigm centered on entertainment and digital ownership.
- The blockchain gaming industry is shifting from speculative, finance-driven models toward a sustainable paradigm that prioritizes high-quality entertainment and digital ownership.
- Blockchain technology should function as invisible infrastructure that enables a read-write-own model rather than serving as the primary marketing hook for users.
- Developers are moving away from the volatile boom-and-bust cycles seen in early projects like Axie Infinity by focusing on long-term player retention and engagement.
State of Play-to-Earn: Finland
This EGDF discussion paper, compiled by Neogames Finland with the European Games Developer Federation in early 2022, gives an overview of play-to-earn (P2E) games built on non-fungible tokens (NFTs).
- The paper argues that the hype places the focus on monetisation, while the key challenges in the games industry are more linked with discoverability and player retention.
- Citing NonFungible.com, the paper reports that sales of all NFTs jumped to more than $17 billion in 2021.
- NFTs as game collectibles represent about 22% of total NFT trading volume, according to DappRadar.
two & a half gamers session #12 - Metacore 65M loss, Niantic 1 hit wonder, Industry conference guide
The gaming industry currently faces significant challenges regarding marketing efficiency, platform monetization, and the long-term viability of major titles.
- High-budget TV advertising is not a guaranteed path to profitability, as evidenced by Metacore incurring a $65 million loss despite significant revenue growth.
- CD Projekt Red experienced a 63% year-over-year revenue decline, highlighting the difficulty of maintaining long-term financial momentum following a troubled product launch.
- Security vulnerabilities remain a critical industry risk, exemplified by the $600 million Axie Infinity crypto heist attributed to state-sponsored actors.