Retention reports and market data
Documents
Global trends in hyper-casual games
This analysis of the hyper-casual gaming sector, based on data collected between Q2 2018 and Q1 2019, examines industry benchmarks, player behavior, and retention strategies.
- The hyper-casual market is highly volatile and hit-driven, with a small percentage of titles capturing the majority of total market share.
- Top-performing arcade games achieve a day-one retention rate of 42%, but long-term retention is poor, with only 2% to 5% of players remaining by day 28.
- Arcade games remain the primary driver of the hyper-casual sector with an average of 4.5 sessions per day, though the segment experienced a 20% decline between Q2 2018 and Q1 2019.
The digital playground: Reducing friction to play
The digital landscape of mobile gaming is shifting from isolated, single-player experiences toward social networks where gameplay serves as a primary medium for interaction.
- Social connectivity is a primary driver of retention, with data from the Bunch network showing that each additional friend a user connects with increases retention by 1.3 times.
- Players who use integrated communication tools to chat before, during, and after gameplay sessions exhibit nearly double the retention rates of general users.
- Developers should treat mobile games as social platforms where the 'metagame'—social behaviors occurring outside the immediate session—is as critical to lifecycle management as core game mechanics.
Build Your Own Fan Club: How to Use Your Email List
Email marketing serves as a critical, high-conversion tool for game developers seeking to cultivate a dedicated player base.
- Email marketing provides a direct, permission-based connection that bypasses algorithmic volatility, resulting in superior click-through rates and more reliable conversion metrics compared to social media.
- Developers should prioritize proactive lead magnets—such as exclusive soundtracks, early access demos, or unique in-game items—to convert casual observers into committed subscribers.
- A nurturing communication sequence that prioritizes high-quality content over aggressive sales tactics is essential for building community trust and reducing unsubscribe rates.
80% data, 20% luck – How to make profitable games in 2019
The mobile gaming industry has transitioned from a hit-driven, scattergun marketing approach to a data-centric model focused on sustainable growth and long-term player engagement.
- Mobile gaming has shifted from a 'boom-bust' launch model to a sustainable growth strategy, resulting in a 64% survival rate for games launched in 2018 compared to only 40% in 2016.
- Successful publishers now delay paid user acquisition (UA) until months after launch, allowing them to gather data on player segments to ensure marketing spend targets high-value users.
- Engagement is now prioritized over aggressive monetization, as evidenced by the fact that while total US App Store revenue grew 30% between 2016 and 2018, the number of players remained relatively static.
The golden cohort: How to create and engage your super user
Blockchain technology serves as a foundational shift in game development, moving the industry away from centralized control toward decentralized, player-centric ecosystems.
- Blockchain technology shifts game development from centralized control to decentralized ecosystems, enabling true digital scarcity and verifiable asset ownership.
- Decentralization allows players to treat in-game assets as portable, long-term investments, which increases player commitment compared to traditional, restrictive models.
- Trustless infrastructure facilitates secondary markets and cross-game interoperability, providing developers with real-time, market-driven data on virtual item value.
Hyper-personalisation fueled by psychometrics: The ultimate power-up for retention and monetisation
The mobile gaming industry faces significant challenges in maintaining player retention and monetization due to extreme market saturation, with over 800,000 games on the iOS store and 1,000 new titles released daily.
- Integrating psychometric data with behavioral analytics can drive a 400% increase in revenue and a 200% improvement in player retention.
- With 85% of mobile players churning within seven days and 1,000 new games released daily, developers must move beyond traditional behavioral metrics to combat market saturation.
- Psychographic data, such as personality traits and values, provides a more stable foundation for player modeling than behavioral data alone by explaining the 'why' behind player actions.
Custom-made games with machine learning and big data
The application of machine learning and big data in game development offers significant potential for optimizing player experiences, increasing monetization, and improving retention.
- Machine learning models can predict individual player behavior, including churn probability, expected lifetime value, and specific virtual item preferences, allowing for automated, personalized retention strategies.
- Data-driven interventions can significantly impact revenue: increasing VIP retention by 10% for one month can generate $1.3 million, while converting potential payers can add $4 million in monthly sales.
- Optimizing game levels identified as 'friction points' where players frequently quit can lead to an estimated $8 million annual increase in revenue.
Managing live operations game design
Effective live operations management requires a shift from siloed, ego-driven design to a player-centric, collaborative framework.
- Lead designers must transition from ego-driven design to a player-centric framework that prioritizes data-informed decision-making and alignment with production goals.
- Establishing clear spheres of authority empowers senior designers to take ownership of their work, which increases accountability and reduces friction between design, monetization, and data teams.
- Leaders should treat past mistakes as immediate coaching opportunities rather than tools for shifting power dynamics, fostering a culture of transparency and continuous professional growth.
Onboarding UX design tips for mobile
This analysis examines onboarding optimization strategies for mobile games, specifically focusing on the free-to-play title Seaport.
- Prioritize iterative UI and game rule refinements over complex tutorials to resolve friction points, as these low-cost changes can significantly improve core gameplay engagement.
- In the case of Seaport, implementing incremental design changes—such as intuitive iconography and dynamic tooltips—increased the ship dispatch rate from 59% to 85% before any formal tutorial was introduced.
- Integrating a guided NPC tutorial after optimizing game mechanics further boosted the ship dispatch rate to 96% and achieved a 40% day-one retention rate during soft launch.
Designing Path of Exile to Be Played Forever
Path of Exile achieves long-term player retention by adhering to five core design pillars: visceral combat, randomized levels, randomized items, a secure online economy, and deep character customization.
- Path of Exile maintains player retention through a rigid 13-week development cycle, which creates predictable return dates and manages burnout by allowing players to step away between cycles.
- The studio drives concurrent user growth by treating large-scale content expansions as the primary engine for re-engagement.
- Operational efficiency is achieved by using procedural generation and a strategic content library to repurpose existing assets, allowing for rapid assembly of new expansions within the 13-week window.
RAID: SHADOW LEGENDS | Metagame
Raid: Shadow Legends, developed by Plarium, represents a strategic shift for the studio from its traditional 4X strategy roots toward a squad-based, turn-based RPG.
- Plarium shifted its development focus from 4X strategy games to squad-based, turn-based RPGs with Raid: Shadow Legends to prioritize high-fidelity character design and complex progression loops.
- The game’s economy is built on a four-currency system—energy, silver, gems, and shards—that integrates directly into every player action to drive monetization.
- Monetization is driven by a tiered rarity system and a summoning mechanic, where players purchase shards to unlock higher-tier champions required for advanced campaign, dungeon, and arena progression.
Wappier on using dynamic pricing in mobile games to increase retention
The mobile gaming industry is undergoing a significant shift toward automated revenue optimization, moving away from manual LiveOps management toward machine learning-driven personalization.
- Automated machine learning-driven personalization can increase mobile game revenue by 30% to 50% without requiring expanded analyst teams.
- Dynamic pricing and automated loyalty programs shift the industry focus from heavy user acquisition spending toward the monetization and retention of existing players.
- Machine learning models calculate individual price elasticity and churn propensity to determine the 'next best action' for each player in real-time.