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Brutally Honest #189
The mobile user acquisition landscape continues to evolve, with a primary focus on optimizing performance in a post-IDFA environment.
- Mobile user acquisition strategy must shift from volume-based metrics to value-based optimization to maintain performance in a post-IDFA environment.
- Meta’s advertising ecosystem now requires value-based bidding as a critical lever for campaign success due to recent algorithmic changes.
- While cost-per-install metrics remain stable, the quality of user signals now necessitates more sophisticated management to drive improved outcomes.
MVP UA IAA Template: Launching Meta Campaigns
The primary objective of this framework is to provide a streamlined, actionable user acquisition strategy specifically tailored for mobile games that derive the majority of their revenue from in-app advertising (IAA) rather than in-app purchases (IAP).
- Mobile games reliant on in-app advertising (IAA) require a distinct acquisition strategy that avoids purchase-based optimization models, which are ineffective for lower lifetime value profiles.
- The Minimum Viable Campaign Setup (MVCS) framework optimizes Meta’s machine learning by prioritizing ad-driven revenue signals over traditional in-app purchase data.
- Developers should adopt a 21-day roadmap to structure the launch and scaling process, ensuring performance metrics justify further investment before increasing budgets.
Linking Sentiment with Game Sales on Live Streaming
Live streaming chat sentiment serves as a viable predictor for the success and reception of new game launches.
- Live-streaming chat sentiment is a reliable predictor of game success, with sentiment on game-specific streams typically increasing by approximately 35% post-release for successful titles.
- Technical performance at launch is the primary driver of negative sentiment, as seen with S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2, where poor optimization caused a lasting drop in total sentiment that overshadowed post-launch improvements.
- Games with established intellectual property, such as Hogwarts Legacy and S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2, can achieve high sales volumes despite lower overall sentiment, as they rely on an existing loyal audience to drive initial conversion.
October 2025's Top New Steam & Console Games Revealed
The October 2025 market analysis provides a comprehensive overview of video game performance across Steam, PlayStation, Xbox, and Nintendo platforms.
- Battlefield 6 dominated the October 2025 market, selling 12 million units globally, including 7 million units on Steam alone.
- Nintendo’s Switch 2 achieved a strong launch with 10.36 million units sold by the end of September, supported by a 92% attach rate for Mario Kart World.
- Ghost of Yotei performed as a major console title with 2.7 million units sold, while the extraction shooter ARC Raiders grossed $55 million from 1.5 million units.
The Optimistic View That Indie Games Are in a Golden Age Right Now
The independent game industry is currently experiencing a period of unique market alignment, often described as a Great Conjunction, where player demand heavily favors accessible, rapidly developed titles over high-fidelity, long-term productions.
- The current 'Great Conjunction' of indie gaming is defined by high-demand, rapidly developed genres including 'friend-slop' (co-op horror/social games), idle/incremental games, shop simulators, and rage games.
- Successful indie developers are increasingly pivoting to short development cycles, with games like 'Desktop Defender' developed in two weeks and 'RV There Yet' created in eight weeks, to avoid the risks of long-term scope creep and over-polishing.
- The 'friend-slop' genre is seeing a surge in simultaneous hits, such as 'Backrooms Escape Together' and 'Dark Hours' achieving high concurrent user counts (CCU) on the same days, indicating a market appetite for multiple similar titles.
DreamHack Atlanta 2026 to Include IEM Atlanta, CDL Major III
ESL FACEIT Group (EFG) has announced that DreamHack Atlanta will return to the Georgia World Congress Center from May 15–17, 2026.
- DreamHack Atlanta 2026 will take place at the Georgia World Congress Center from May 15–17, 2026.
- The event will host the Call of Duty League (CDL) Major III, marking the first time a CDL Major has been held at a DreamHack festival.
- The 2026 festival will feature the Intel Extreme Masters (IEM) Atlanta, a Counter-Strike 2 competition with a total prize pool of $1,050,000.
Does Steam Have Its Regional Pricing Recommendations Right?
This analysis evaluates the efficacy of Steam’s regional pricing recommendations by comparing them against the actual pricing strategies of independent and AAA game developers.
- AAA publishers frequently ignore Steam’s pricing matrix, with titles in Brazil priced an average of 67% higher than Valve’s suggested recommendations.
- Independent developers largely adhere to Steam’s 2022 pricing guidelines, though market pressure in Poland has forced prices 20% to 25% lower than suggested levels.
- Aggressive pricing strategies by AAA publishers may reduce their competitiveness in international markets compared to indie titles that align more closely with platform guidance.
Their Second Game Did Worse, Now What?
The commercial underperformance of a studio’s second title often stems from the common trap of scaling production complexity at the expense of a clear, marketable core concept.
- Commercial success in indie development is more achievable by keeping budgets low—such as aiming for a 100,000 euro return on a 50,000 euro budget—rather than relying on the high-risk, high-cost model of large-scale sequels.
- Indie developers should avoid the assumption that a successful first game guarantees a sequel's success, as the player base for a title with 1,000 to 2,000 reviews is often not large enough to justify a sequel strategy.
- Detective game design should prioritize player engagement by integrating story into gameplay mechanics, such as requiring players to pass tests based on information gathered during dialogue to avoid the 'click-through' apathy common in RPGs.
Sweden is Killing It in the Indie and AA Space: Can a Public Coffee Stain Continue the Combo?
Sweden has established itself as a dominant force in the indie and AA game development sectors, driven by a continuous talent loop and a culture of community-led innovation.
- Coffee Stain has spun off from Embracer Group as a publicly traded company, testing whether a decentralized, community-driven AA development model can maintain its creative autonomy under public market pressure.
- The publisher’s portfolio includes major commercial successes like Valheim, which has sold over 20 million copies and generated $300 million in Steam revenue, and Deep Rock Galactic, which has sold 11 million copies with nearly $200 million in gross revenue.
- Coffee Stain maintains a 'capital-light' operational model with only 250 employees, focusing on high per-head revenue and organic growth through community iteration rather than aggressive, large-scale acquisitions.
The Future of Game Publishing Is Player Ownership
The modern game publishing landscape is undergoing a fundamental shift toward self-publishing, necessitating a transition from traditional marketing models to data-driven player relationship management.
- First Look acts as a CRM for game studios, centralizing player data from platforms like Steam, Discord, and email to streamline playtesting, feedback collection, and community management.
- The platform currently serves over 100 active game studios, helping them manage self-publishing operations that were previously handled by external publishers.
- First Look was acquired by Pragma to unify the backend and frontend of game development, creating a more cohesive infrastructure for studios to manage player relationships and game operations.
Interview with Vice President at Korea AI Game Association
The gaming industry is currently undergoing a significant transformation as artificial intelligence becomes deeply integrated into creative development processes.
- The gaming industry is undergoing a structural shift where AI technology is becoming deeply integrated into the creative development process.
- The Korea AI Game Association is focusing on empowering indie developers to improve their creative capabilities through the adoption of AI tools.
- A primary objective of the Korea AI Game Association is to strengthen the global competitiveness of Korean indie games through AI-driven innovation.
Session: Level Up - Gaming In 2025 & Beyond - Josh Skinner, Sensor Tower
The gaming industry in 2025 exhibits a resilient and evolving landscape, characterized by a shift in player behavior and a robust performance in consumer spending across both mobile and PC/console platforms.
- Mobile gaming in 2025 shows a 10% year-to-date increase in in-app purchase revenue despite a 6% decline in total downloads.
- Live operations are no longer a guaranteed growth driver, as many top-tier games are experiencing revenue declines despite active event schedules.
- Data-driven optimization of event cadence is critical for success, exemplified by titles like Gossip Harbor shifting from 24-hour to 7-day task events to improve performance.