2015
Company
Documents about 2015
Fallout Shelter: Is Its Success Sustainable?
Bethesda's Fallout Shelter climbed to third place on the US iOS top grossing chart on June 17, 2015, prompting industry debate over whether its rank reflected a new recipe for success or merely Apple's featuring and timing alongside the Fallout 4 hype.
- Fallout Shelter has a Game Power Score of 81, which is above the average of 74 for the top 200 grossing games, but insufficient to reliably sustain a top 10 position.
- Only 8% of mobile games with a Game Power Score similar to Fallout Shelter have successfully maintained a position in the top 10 grossing charts.
- Sustaining a top 10 grossing position typically requires a Game Power Score of 90 or higher, as evidenced by benchmarks like Clash of Clans (94), Candy Crush Saga (91), and Game of War (90).
Mobile Games: A Flawed Industry
Mobile game economics in 2015 are structurally challenged, according to this guest post by Plamee Games VP of Marketing Michael Velkes.
- The mobile gaming industry faces a structural profitability crisis, as average user acquisition costs reached $3 in 2015 while only 2% of users convert to paying customers.
- Successful developers must move beyond pure user acquisition strategies, as the high cost of paid installs often exceeds the lifetime value of a user, which typically ranges between $1 and $1.50 for average products.
- Retention is a critical failure point, with data indicating that only 10% of users remain active in an app after 10 weeks.
Hot Button Issues
Quantic Foundry surveyed 1,127 gamers in 2015 to measure agreement with polarizing statements about games and gamers, covering topics such as free-to-play monetization, gender and ethnic inclusiveness, game quality, the legitimacy of casual platforms, violence, and the value of gaming.
- Gamers show the highest consensus on the belief that video games are an art form (mean 4.32) and that online relationships can be as genuine as face-to-face ones (mean 4.26).
- The most controversial topics among the 1,127 surveyed gamers—indicated by the highest standard deviations—are the willingness to pay for free-to-play games (SD 1.30) and the definition of 'real' games regarding Facebook titles (SD 1.29).
- There is strong disagreement with the idea that games should cater exclusively to a male demographic (mean 1.17, SD 0.49), which also represents the area of highest consensus among respondents.
How We Created the Gamer Motivation Profile
Quantic Foundry's 2015 article lays out how it built the Gamer Motivation Profile, a quantitative model of why people play video games.
- Quantic Foundry developed the Gamer Motivation Profile by using Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) on survey data from 1,727 total gamers to identify five core motivation clusters.
- The model identifies five primary motivation groups—Action, Strategy, Achievement, Social, and Immersion—which are further broken down into 11 underlying sub-motivations.
- Players are not categorized into single buckets; instead, they receive a unique score for each of the 11 motivations, creating a distinct constellation profile for every individual.
What We Learned from the Beta Version of the Gamer Profile Tool
Quantic Foundry's June 2015 post describes how the company designed and beta-tested the individual reports delivered by its Gamer Motivation Profile Tool.
- 82% of beta participants rated the Gamer Motivation Profile as either 'Very Accurate' or 'Extremely Accurate'.
- 73% of users felt the report provided the right amount of detail, while 25% desired even more in-depth information.
- 86% of participants reported that the tool provided good or great coverage of their primary gaming motivations.
Brand Equity on Mobile
Brand equity, as defined by David Aaker, Carol Simon and Mary Sullivan, and Kevin Keller, has traditionally been valued through two benefits: the ability to command a price premium and the ability to spend less on marketing while achieving equivalent exposure.
- Traditional brand equity, which reduces consumer risk and commands price premiums, is largely irrelevant in the mobile ecosystem because 83% of apps are free and users face no financial risk when evaluating new products.
- Mobile app discovery is a winner-takes-all marketplace controlled by platform owners, meaning brand recognition alone cannot guarantee visibility without significant investment in direct-response marketing.
- Brand loyalty is difficult to establish on mobile, evidenced by data showing that 22% of app downloads result in only a single session as users easily switch between competing apps.
Four Ways Grin Apps Uses Store Intelligence to Conquer the Mobile Marketplace
Grin Apps, a publisher of "companion apps" for major social networks, describes how it uses Sensor Tower's Store Intelligence platform to guide product and launch decisions.
- Grin Apps uses download velocity data to benchmark emerging apps against incumbents like Snapchat and Instagram to determine if a new social network has sufficient growth to warrant a companion app.
- The company performs market saturation analysis by aggregating lifetime download volumes of all direct competitors and applying industry-standard retention metrics to estimate the remaining addressable market.
- Grin Apps utilizes publisher-level portfolio analysis to monitor the success and revenue share of specific app concepts launched by competitors, helping them identify new market entrants.
Dubsmash: A Case Study in Virality
Dubsmash, a lip-sync video messaging app from Berlin studio Mobile Motion, serves as a case study in organic viral growth and the geographic patterns that shape it.
- Dubsmash achieved over 50 million downloads across 192 countries with zero marketing spend, relying entirely on organic and viral discovery.
- The app’s user experience prioritizes immediate value by allowing users to record lip-synch videos without registration, only requiring sign-up for sharing or adding effects.
- Viral growth originated in the developer's home market of Germany, reaching the #1 downloaded position on Google Play within one month and on iOS within one week of launch.
New Studies Show Positive Impact of Games
Several recent studies reinforce the view that video games improve visual skills and cognitive ability, according to a May 2015 news item from the Flemish Games Association (FLEGA).
- Research from Brown University indicates that video games sharpen visual processing skills and improve a student's ability to continue developing skills after initial learning.
- A study by the University of Georgia found that tutoring software utilizing a 'learning-by-teaching' approach improves the academic performance of low-achieving students by fostering deeper engagement and analysis.
- The OECD's Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) reports that moderate video game play is associated with improved performance in core subjects like math and science.
Ketchapp: A Case Study in Mobile Portfolio Management
Ketchapp, a small Paris-based publisher, offers a case study in portfolio-driven mobile publishing built on volume, calculated virality, and cross promotion.
- Ketchapp maintains a high-velocity publishing model, releasing simple, single-mechanic games at a rapid pace to capitalize on viral trends and maximize portfolio-wide cross-promotion.
- The company utilizes an aggressive cross-promotion strategy, using intrusive pop-up interstitials and native in-game integrations to propel new titles into the Top 10 downloaded positions on iOS.
- Ketchapp’s portfolio performance is highly calculated; of 16 releases in early 2015, only 5 reached the Top 10, suggesting the company throttles cross-promotion based on a game's immediate viral performance or click-through rates.
The Advertising Dilemma for Mobile Games
Rising in-app advertising revenue in mobile games may disadvantage the small developers who depend on it most.
- Small mobile game developers face an 'advertising dilemma' where monetizing through ads effectively forces them to funnel their own users toward the portfolios of large, well-capitalized incumbents.
- The mobile gaming market is bifurcating, as tier-1 and tier-2 incumbents use massive marketing budgets to create insurmountable barriers to entry for newcomers who cannot compete on unit economics.
- In-app advertising revenue grew by 70% between 2013 and 2014, yet approximately 90% of developers earn less than $10,000 per month from this revenue stream.
9.4% Growth for Global Games Market
Newzoo's preview of its 2015 Global Games Report, relayed by the Flemish Games Association (FLEGA) in May 2015, forecasts that the worldwide games market will grow 9.4% year over year, from €74.6 billion to €81.6 billion.
- The global games market is projected to grow by 9.4% in 2015, increasing from €74.6 billion to €81.6 billion.
- China is expected to surpass the United States in 2015 to become the world’s largest games market by revenue, reaching this milestone one year earlier than previously anticipated.
- PC and Mac remain the most popular gaming platforms, commanding a 37% share of the global market.