Infinity
Company
Documents about Infinity
A Future Already Past? The Promises and Pitfalls of Cryptogames, Blockchain, and Speculative Play
The article reviews the blockchain-gaming discourse, including the Play-to-Earn promise of earning a living by playing, and the counterarguments from journalists, players, and developers.
- The article argues that cryptogames should be understood as an emerging social practice that attracts financial speculators under the guise of online games.
- Over 70% of attendees at the 2022 Game Developers Conference expressed no interest in blockchain technology, and only 1% used it, according to a cited GDC/Informatech report.
- Axie Infinity's sidechain suffered a theft of $617 million, which the article cites as evidence that tying game objects to a localized blockchain undermines promised security benefits.
Longtime Epic Games Exec Donald Mustard Announces His Retirement
Donald Mustard, Chief Creative Officer at Epic Games, announced his retirement from the company in September 2023, concluding a nearly 25-year career in the game industry.
- Donald Mustard, the Chief Creative Officer at Epic Games, announced his retirement from the company in September 2023.
- Mustard is widely recognized as a primary architect of Fortnite, overseeing its expansion into the battle royale genre and its extensive series of pop culture and entertainment crossovers.
- Mustard joined Epic Games in 2008 following the company's acquisition of ChAIR Entertainment, a studio he co-founded in 2005.
June 2023: Web3 Gaming Monthly Market Update
This monthly market update for June 2023 analyzes trends in web3 gaming, focusing on Unique Active Wallets (UAWs), secondary market NFT transaction volumes, and fundraising activities.
- Web3 gaming investment saw a sharp 41% month-over-month decline in June 2023 as venture capital shifted focus toward artificial intelligence.
- Unique Active Wallets (UAWs) across the sector fell by 2.4%, while secondary market NFT transaction volumes decreased by 4.6%.
- Bitcoin-based NFT activity experienced a significant 44% drop, indicating a substantial cooling of interest in that specific segment.
The Great Reset: Your 2023 Guide to Web3 Games
The web3 gaming industry is undergoing a significant transformation, dubbed "The Great Reset," shifting its focus from unsustainable "play-to-earn" (P2E) models to developing fun, sustainable, and scalable games.
- The play-to-earn (P2E) model has collapsed, evidenced by a 99% decline in unique trades and a 77% drop in trading volume for virtual land NFTs since early 2022.
- Despite the market downturn, web3 gaming investment remained resilient in 2022, with approximately $3.7 billion raised, slightly surpassing the $3.6 billion total from 2021.
- The majority of the estimated 24,000 web3 guilds are likely to fail due to decimated treasuries and unsustainable business models, forcing survivors to pivot away from traditional guild structures.
The Smoke Test: Are These Game Economies Sustainable?
"The Smoke Test: Are These Game Economies Sustainable?" evaluates the long-term economic viability of four blockchain games—Illuvium, Splinterlands, Crypto Unicorns, and Star Atlas—using a "Ponzinomic Smoke Test" methodology.
- The sustainability of a game economy can be tested by assuming a constant player count; if the economy collapses without continuous growth, it functions as a Ponzi scheme rather than a sustainable model.
- Axie Infinity's collapse serves as a primary case study, where a steady user count failed to generate demand for new Axies, causing the value of the SLP token to plummet and triggering an exodus of play-to-earn participants.
- Splinterlands has maintained relative stability by shifting play-to-earn rewards from the DEC token to the governance-focused SPS token, helping to mitigate oversupply and support the value of its in-game currency.
The Unofficial Deconstructor of Fun 2022 Gaming Awards
The "Unofficial Deconstructor of Fun 2022 Gaming Awards" provides a retrospective analysis of the significant events, trends, and performances within the gaming industry during 2022.
- The gaming industry shifted from 2021 growth to 2022 austerity, driven by macroeconomic pressures like inflation and interest rates alongside the disruptive impact of Apple’s privacy policy changes on mobile marketing.
- Mobile gaming, previously a reliable growth engine, experienced a 5% to 10% decline in Western markets during 2022.
- Speculative investment in Web3, NFTs, and the metaverse collapsed, highlighted by Meta’s $15 billion loss on metaverse initiatives and the failure of FTX.
Losing the Game: How Blockchain and NFT Technology Turns Games Into Work
The integration of blockchain technology and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) into the gaming industry represents a regressive shift that transforms play into precarious labor.
- Play-to-earn (P2E) models, exemplified by Axie Infinity, function as a form of 'click-work colonialism' where middle-class investors from industrial nations profit from the labor of workers in low-income countries.
- Blockchain gaming represents a qualitative shift beyond traditional free-to-play monetization by exploiting players' fears of social decline and their desire for economic advancement in an era of polycrisis.
- The P2E model relies on a capitalist-worker dichotomy that strips games of their ludic value, effectively turning leisure into menial, precarious labor.
Mobile Game Market Review: October 2022
This analyst bulletin provides a review of the mobile game market for October 2022, focusing on significant updates, events, and new entrants in the US, China, and Japan markets.
- Major mobile titles are shifting away from traditional gacha mechanics; Mario Kart Tour replaced randomized warp pipes with a Daily Spotlight Shop, and Brawl Stars removed gacha requirements for unlocking high-level passive Gears.
- Clash of Clans experienced a 500% surge in daily iOS revenue following the release of its latest Town Hall update in October 2022.
- Garena Free Fire is monetizing virtual fashion by launching a 'Trend+' collectibles album, effectively treating in-game cosmetic outfits as proprietary fashion brands.
REVV Racing: The Last Lap?
REVV Racing, a web-based arcade-simulation racing game developed by Animoca Brands, faces significant challenges in player engagement and economic sustainability, suggesting a precarious future.
- REVV Racing’s native token, REVV, has struggled significantly, trading down 97% from its peak with a market cap of approximately $4.7 million as of September 2022.
- The game utilizes an overly complex token economy featuring four distinct tokens (one NFT and three fungible), which creates unnecessary friction and fails to provide long-term economic sustainability.
- The core game loop is economically harsh, requiring players to purchase car NFTs via OpenSea and often participate in specific, restrictive events that favor high-spending, skilled players, creating a pay-to-win dynamic.
Bad Romance: The AppLovin/Unity Merger
AppLovin's roughly $18 billion unsolicited bid for Unity, made in August 2022 shortly after Unity agreed to merge with ad rival IronSource, is unlikely to succeed. Four reasons are given.
- The $18 billion AppLovin bid for Unity is unlikely to succeed due to a $150 million termination fee tied to Unity's existing IronSource merger and a strategic mismatch with Unity's pivot toward non-gaming sectors.
- Hardware manufacturers including Corsair and Turtle Beach have reported year-over-year revenue declines of 40% or more, reflecting a significant post-pandemic market cooling.
- AppLovin’s merger attempt is characterized as a defensive move driven by the company's high debt-to-capital ratio and slowing growth within the consolidating mobile advertising landscape.
June 2022: Monthly Market Update
Blockchain gaming in June 2022 was sharply bifurcated: unsustainable, play-to-earn-driven games continued to deteriorate during the crypto bear market, while teams building the next generation of fun-first, better-designed games had not yet launched.
- Blockchain gaming is experiencing a significant market downturn, characterized by declining unique active wallets (UAW), volatile NFT transaction volumes, and a slowdown in fundraising as unsustainable play-to-earn models deteriorate.
- Top blockchain games, including Alien Worlds and Splinterlands, saw substantial player churn in June, with Splinterlands experiencing a sharp decline in active wallets following major reward structure changes.
- Casual and puzzle games are emerging as a resilient sub-sector, with Solitaire Blitz debuting in the top five and other titles like Arc8 and Gameta maintaining steady engagement despite broader market weakness.
How Can the Next Wave of Web3 Games Become Sustainable?
Web3 gaming's mid-2022 slowdown, argues analyst Javier Barnes in this opinion piece, is an opportunity to rethink the fundamentals of how blockchain games can last. Two structural obstacles are identified.
- Web3 gaming currently suffers from a sustainability crisis driven by speculative financial models that prioritize short-term growth over long-term player engagement.
- The reliance on positive-sum financial incentives creates fragile economic bubbles, as evidenced by the significant decline in active users for major titles like Axie Infinity when speculative appeal wanes.
- Game economies are highly vulnerable to external market shocks due to their dependence on volatile Layer 1 cryptocurrencies, which causes player retention to collapse during market downturns.