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Valor Mortis: Postponement and Development Strategy
Valor Mortis, an action title from Lyrical Games and One More Level that blends Dark Souls-style combat with parkour in a Napoleonic-era undead setting, was originally slated for release on September 24.
- Lyrical Games and One More Level postponed the release of Valor Mortis from September 24 to October 13, 2026, to avoid a crowded market window.
- The original September 24 release date became untenable after Remedy’s Control claimed the same launch slot, creating a high-risk 'September crush'.
- The decision to reschedule was driven by the crystallization of the competitive landscape following major industry events like Summer Games Fest and various platform showcases.
The Xbox and PlayStation Games with 1M+ Sold on Steam Since 2023
This analysis examines the performance of Xbox and PlayStation titles on Steam since 2023, focusing on games that have surpassed one million units sold.
- Sony’s Helldivers 2 has sold 14.5 million copies on Steam, generating nearly $500 million and accounting for 40% of the units sold by Sony and Microsoft titles in the 1 million+ club since 2023.
- PlayStation’s prestige single-player ports are experiencing diminishing returns on Steam, with newer releases like God of War Ragnarok and Horizon Forbidden West selling at significantly lower velocities than earlier ports like the original God of War and Horizon Zero Dawn.
- Ghost of Tsushima Director’s Cut has achieved 2.7 million Steam sales, demonstrating that a longer gap between console and PC release can help preserve the novelty premium and drive sustained revenue.
Brutally Honest #207
The newsletter provides tactical guidance for mobile user acquisition (UA) managers, focusing on optimizing campaign performance in a post-IDFA environment.
- Optimize Google Ads performance by shortening attribution windows to 7 days for purchase events and 1 day for ad impressions to accelerate feedback loops, rather than relying on the 90-day default.
- Utilize a 28-day purchase attribution window for Applovin campaigns to effectively support blended ROAS optimization.
- Scale high-quality ad creative production by integrating AI image generation models such as Google’s Nano Banana, ByteDance’s Seedream, and Tencent’s Hunyuan.
Project Helix and the Xbox Identity Crisis
Project Helix represents a significant strategic pivot for Microsoft’s Xbox division, characterized by the development of a new console architecture that functions as a Windows-based PC.
- Project Helix is a proposed $1,000–$1,200 console running a Windows-based architecture with a controller-optimized 'Xbox Mode,' expected to launch no earlier than late 2027.
- Xbox has faced a significant structural disadvantage in the console market, with the PS4 outselling the Xbox One 117 million to 58 million and the PS5 currently leading the Xbox Series consoles 86 million to 34 million.
- Game Pass subscriber growth has stalled, reaching approximately 36 million by mid-2025, falling well short of the 100 million target set for 2030.
Phil Spencer Retiring from Xbox, Microsoft AI Exec Asha Sharma Taking Over Gaming Division
Microsoft has announced a significant leadership transition within its gaming division, marking the retirement of longtime Xbox head Phil Spencer.
- Asha Sharma, former head of CoreAI at Microsoft and executive at Meta and Instacart, has been appointed CEO of Microsoft Gaming, succeeding the retiring Phil Spencer.
- Xbox president Sarah Bond is departing the company, while Matt Booty will transition to Executive Vice President and Chief Content Officer, reporting directly to Sharma.
- Phil Spencer is retiring after 38 years at Microsoft, including 12 years leading the gaming division, though he will remain in an advisory role through the summer.
The Counterintuitive Advantage of Launching During Steam’s Busiest Event
This analysis examines the strategic advantages of launching games and demos on Steam during high-traffic seasonal events, specifically the Winter Sale.
- Launching a game during Steam's busiest event, like the Winter Sale, can be advantageous because many indie developers avoid these periods, creating less competition for visibility on key widgets.
- Games launched during the Winter Sale and in January tend to stay on the 'New & Trending' list longer, with an average of 4.25 days and a median of 4 days, compared to 'Popular Upcoming' where games typically last 1-2 days.
- To appear on 'New & Trending', a game likely needs to achieve around $8,000 in sales within a few days, while 'Popular Upcoming' requires approximately 5,000-7,000 wishlists.
How 2025’s Xbox-Published Games Sold on PS5
This analysis examines the commercial performance of Xbox-published titles on the PlayStation 5 platform throughout 2025.
- PlayStation 5 has become a critical revenue driver for Xbox, with 10 key 2025 titles generating hundreds of millions of dollars in sales to offset declining Xbox hardware performance.
- Gears of War Reloaded sold 572,000 units on PS5 in 2025, significantly outperforming its combined sales of 202,000 on Xbox and 73,000 on Steam.
- Game Pass cannibalized Xbox and PC sales for Gears of War Reloaded, with an estimated 1.6 million players accessing the title via subscription rather than purchasing it.
The Game Awards Nominees by Copies Sold
The 2025 Game of the Year nominees represent a significant commercial milestone for the industry, with collective sales exceeding 20 million units across major platforms.
- The Game Awards nominees have collectively sold over 20 million copies across Steam, PlayStation, and Xbox platforms.
- Hollow Knight: Silksong leads the nominee sales with 5.5 million copies sold and approximately $100 million in revenue, while also reaching 2 million players via Game Pass.
- Expedition 33 has sold 5.3 million copies, demonstrating strong market demand for JRPGs despite industry skepticism, supported by 3 million Game Pass users.
Linking Sentiment with Game Sales on Live Streaming
Live streaming chat sentiment serves as a viable predictor for the success and reception of new game launches.
- Live-streaming chat sentiment is a reliable predictor of game success, with sentiment on game-specific streams typically increasing by approximately 35% post-release for successful titles.
- Technical performance at launch is the primary driver of negative sentiment, as seen with S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2, where poor optimization caused a lasting drop in total sentiment that overshadowed post-launch improvements.
- Games with established intellectual property, such as Hogwarts Legacy and S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2, can achieve high sales volumes despite lower overall sentiment, as they rely on an existing loyal audience to drive initial conversion.
SKAN 4 Adoption in 2025: Does It Matter?
The mobile advertising industry has reached a significant milestone in 2025 as Meta has begun a substantial transition to SKAdNetwork (SKAN) 4.
- Meta has begun transitioning to SKAN 4.0, marking a significant shift in adoption by the industry's largest ad network three years after Apple's initial release.
- The adoption of SKAN 4.0 by major players is now showing a sustainable upward trend in postback volume, moving beyond previous temporary spikes.
- SKAN 4.0 provides improved measurement capabilities for lower-volume apps by enabling signal returns through coarse conversion values.
11 Tips for Killer UA Operations: Q3 2025
User acquisition strategies for the third quarter of 2025 center on the necessity of multi-channel diversification and the implementation of creative-first funnels to combat rising costs per install.
- Scaling a mobile game requires meeting strict performance benchmarks, including a minimum of 10-15% Day 30 retention and consistent, predictable monetization across multiple user cohorts.
- In Q1 2025, the top 2% of ad creatives accounted for 53% of total spend in gaming apps, though there is a broader industry trend toward diversifying creative concepts rather than relying on single 'hero' assets.
- Android UA spend is heavily concentrated in three networks: Google (67.7%), AppLovin (14.5%), and Meta (11.3%), necessitating a strategy that diversifies spend across 3–5 networks to mitigate channel dependence.
How Much Should We Freak Out About Silksong
The release of Hollow Knight: Silksong serves as a case study for indie developers regarding the perceived risks of launching games alongside major industry blockbusters.
- The release of a major title like Hollow Knight: Silksong does not significantly impact the sales of other indie games, as Steam's algorithm-driven visibility—such as the Discovery Queue and New & Trending lists—remains the primary driver of success.
- Only 7 games from the observed list rescheduled their launch dates to avoid the Silksong release, while 29 games with at least 400 followers maintained their original release dates.
- Leveraging a major industry event for marketing can be effective; developers who publicly addressed the Silksong release, such as the team behind Baby Steps, saw significant engagement, with their announcement video garnering 123,000 views.