Market Analysis reports and market data
Documents
S8, E01: Articulating a bull case for the open web (with Gareth Glaser)
The open web represents a significantly undervalued advertising market, currently constrained by legacy infrastructure that prioritizes outdated branding models over the performance-driven strategies that define modern digital marketing.
- The open web is significantly undervalued, with average CPMs ranging from $6 to $15 on platforms like Facebook compared to a fraction of that on the open web, representing a massive potential for economic growth if monetization strategies are modernized.
- The historical development of open web advertising was stunted by an over-reliance on agency holding company budgets and rebates, which favored established walled gardens over the technical innovation required for performance marketing.
- Prebid.js, an open-source framework used by 99% of web publishers, was a critical turning point that allowed publishers to bypass Google Ad Manager's monopolistic advantages, resulting in publisher revenue increases of approximately 70%.
Design Club: Exploring The Tidy Up Genre!
The emerging tidy up genre represents a specialized category of cozy simulation games centered on the meditative act of organizing chaotic environments into ordered spaces.
- The 'tidy up' genre focuses on low-cognitive-load, relaxing gameplay that induces a flow state, often characterized by organizing chaotic environments into an 'immaculate state.'
- Tidy up games are technically accessible to develop compared to complex physics-heavy titles, though they require a high volume of art assets to populate the game world.
- Designers utilize non-linear movement, such as the mechanics found in pop-up books, to engage players by exploiting human cognitive blind spots regarding non-linear motion.
Can a Bad Name Hurt a Good Game?
The extraction shooter genre is undergoing a strategic evolution as developers increasingly integrate cooperative PvE modes to mitigate the high churn rates associated with purely competitive PvP environments.
- Extraction shooters like ARC Raiders are shifting toward PvE-focused co-op modes because player data shows a growing audience segment that prefers cooperative play over the high-stress, hardcore PvP experience.
- The lack of formal contracts in the Roblox ecosystem is leading to legal disputes, as early contributors to successful games seek compensation after being excluded from revenue shares that can reach millions of dollars per month.
- Game titles do not significantly impact commercial success as long as they are functionally distinct and searchable; generic names are common across successful titles like War Thunder, Delta Force, and World of Tanks.
🐌 Voodoo's mid-core ERA: Draft Showdown is Battle Legion with the friction removed
Voodoo is successfully transitioning into the mid-core market by applying a hybrid-casual philosophy to complex genres, most notably through the auto-battler Draft Showdown.
- Voodoo’s auto-battler Draft Showdown currently generates $120,000 in daily revenue with 400,000 daily active users, with projections estimating a peak of $200,000 to $300,000 as the title matures.
- The game successfully scales mid-core mechanics by applying a hybrid-casual philosophy, specifically removing complex unit placement friction and integrating roguelite elements to prioritize active, counter-based gameplay.
- Monetization is driven by a high-volume strategy featuring seven distinct rewarded ad placements and a double-dipping interstitial system, supplemented by a Draft Pass for in-app purchases.
AI's insane PR machine, Zynga's failed Supercell deal & EU regulation | Week in Mobile Games podcast
The mobile gaming industry currently faces a period of significant regulatory pressure and strategic introspection.
- The European Consumer Protection Cooperation (CPC) has targeted major publishers including King, Supercell, Mojang, Activision Blizzard, and Ubisoft over concerns regarding in-game virtual currency practices.
- Proposed EU Kids Act regulations threaten common mobile engagement mechanics, specifically targeting daily login bonuses and activity streaks that may undermine a child's decision to stop playing.
- Mark Pincus revealed that Zynga considered a $400 million acquisition of Supercell in 2012, a move that would have significantly altered Zynga's trajectory during its struggle to transition from browser to mobile gaming.
🚨📢 BREAKING NEWS: AppLovin sues Unity, Monster Hunter mobile, Minecraft new content in 14 years
The gaming industry is currently navigating a period of significant legal, financial, and creative shifts.
- AppLovin has initiated a lawsuit against Unity, alleging that Unity’s advertising SDK improperly harvests sensitive data regarding user devices, revenue engagement, and creative assets.
- A startup focused on training AI models on gameplay clips from Medal has raised $220 million, reaching a $6.2 billion valuation with a strategic focus on world models rather than game engines.
- Tencent’s TiMi Studio Group will launch the mobile title Monster Hunter Outlanders on October 29, with a mainland Chinese release slated for next year.
Why Video Game Studios By Big-Name Developers Fail So Often
The frequent failure of independent game studios founded by veterans from major AAA companies stems from a disconnect between the resources of large organizations and the realities of smaller, independent operations.
- New studios founded by AAA veterans often fail because they lack the specialized infrastructure—such as dedicated marketing, cinematic teams, and administrative support—that large companies like Blizzard or Rockstar provide by default.
- Founders frequently struggle to adapt to modern market realities, such as the necessity of Early Access, community building via Discord, and iterative beta testing, instead relying on outdated 'surprise launch' strategies that are no longer effective.
- Excessive venture capital funding, common during the 2021–2022 zero-interest-rate period, often leads to 'scope creep,' where studios artificially inflate project size and headcount to match their inflated budgets, resulting in complacency and unmanageable complexity.
Women Gamers 2026: 9th Annual Edition
The ninth annual edition of the Women Gamers study provides a comprehensive analysis of how women engage with the gaming industry, drawing on nine years of longitudinal research.
- Toxicity remains a significant barrier to engagement, with 51% of all women reporting negative experiences, a figure that spikes to 79% among Gen Z players.
- To avoid harassment, many women are actively hiding their gender or opting out of voice chat, contributing to a broader industry trend where solo play is increasingly preferred over multiplayer experiences.
- While women play an average of six genres, engagement on PC and console platforms has plateaued since 2024 as Gen Z players increasingly prioritize social media over traditional gaming.
TWIG #403: The Market Only Grew 2%, Friendslop Hits the PC Charts and China Drafts Off GTA VI
The global gaming industry is currently experiencing a period of significant stagnation, with real-term market growth hovering at approximately 2% annually when adjusted for inflation.
- The global gaming industry is stagnating with only 2% annual real-term growth, driven by rising user acquisition costs and a lack of expansion beyond mature Western and Chinese markets.
- Console spending is highly consolidated, with 93% of revenue directed toward established intellectual property, creating significant barriers for new entrants.
- The PC market is a winner-take-all environment where only 1.5% of annual game releases generate more than $1 million in revenue.
Games media crisis deepens, Bloober hunts weird horror titles, and New York Games Week launches
The games media landscape is currently undergoing a period of profound instability, marked by widespread layoffs and a fundamental shift in audience acquisition as AI-driven search algorithms disrupt traditional traffic models.
- The games media sector is facing significant instability due to layoffs and AI-driven search algorithms disrupting traditional traffic models, leading to a shift toward niche publications and podcasts.
- Bloober Team is launching the 'Broken Mirror Games' label, led by Tymon Smektała, to expand into a global horror platform by managing two first-party and five second-party titles.
- New York Games Week is debuting as a decentralized event model that utilizes existing city infrastructure and coordinates with New York Comic-Con to replace traditional, rigid trade show formats.
🥟 Mystery Dumpling Unbox ASMR: The Game that isn't a GAME (It's an Ad Simulator)
Mystery Dumpling Unbox ASMR exemplifies the rise of the ad simulator, a category of ultra-casual mobile applications designed to monetize viral trends rather than provide sustainable gameplay.
- Mystery Dumpling Unbox ASMR generates approximately $1 million in monthly revenue, or $30,000 per day, by operating as a transient ad-based simulator rather than a traditional game.
- The application achieves 300,000 daily downloads and 1.1 million daily active users through organic search traffic and keyword optimization, requiring zero investment in paid user acquisition.
- The monetization strategy relies on high-density ad formats, including permanent MRECs, frequent interstitials, and Google’s in-game billboards, while intentionally excluding rewarded video.
Les Français et le jeu vidéo: 2026
Video games have become a foundational element of French culture, with 38.7 million individuals—representing seven out of ten citizens—engaging with the medium as of 2026.
- As of 2026, 38.7 million French citizens—seven out of ten people—engage with video games, maintaining an equal gender split and an average player age of 40.
- Market engagement is high, with 90 percent of buyers playing at least weekly across an average of 2.1 platforms, primarily utilizing a mix of physical, digital, and subscription models.
- Gaming is a primary social medium in France, as 63 percent of players participate in multiplayer experiences that frequently lead to the formation of real-world friendships.