Updated Jun 1, 2026 by Benedict Evans
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Published by Benedict Evans
Benedict Evans –– December 2020 Every 10-15 years, a platform shift reshapes technology Mainframes PCs Web Smartphones Generative AI Benedict Evans –– November 2025 2 What happens in a platform shift? Who is affected, and how much? The New Thing! Inside tech Outside tech All tech innovation, New gatekeepers, Is this a new tool, investment and new value capture new revenue, or an company creation New and bigger existential threat? Benedict Evans –– Novemb...
The next platform shift Every 10-15 years, a platform shift reshapes technology Mainframes PCs Web Smartphones Generative AI Benedict Evans –– November 2025 2
What happens in a platform shift? Who is affected, and how much? The New Thing! Inside tech Outside tech All tech innovation, New gatekeepers, Is this a new tool, investment and new value capture new revenue, or an company creation New and bigger existential threat? switches over markers Benedict Evans –– November 2025 3
Dominance is won and lost Microsoft dominated the PC era, but when the centre of gravity shifted to smartphones it became irrelevant Microsoft OS share of global computer unit sales 100% 75% 50% 25% 0%1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: Apple, Google, Gartner Benedict Evans –– November 2025
Early leaders often disappear The ‘first’ was not the winner in PCs, browsers, search, social or smartphones Global PC unit sales share IBM-compatible 100% All others Apple 75% 50% 25% 0% 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Source: Gartner Benedict Evans –– November 2025
How will the new thing work? We don’t know For every new platform, we forget how many ideas failed and how unclear everything was Internet Mobile internet Generative AI? AOL, Yahoo, i-mode, J2ME, WAP, Browsers? Agentic? Pointcast, Flash, mesh, DVB-H, Voice? MCP? plugins, portals… keyboards… Wearables? GEO? Sun? Netscape? Nokia? RIM? Benedict Evans –– November 2025 6
Noise, hype, anti-hype When things are exciting, people get excited cnbc.com fortune.com E businessinsider.com CNBCmake it BUSINESS INSIDER INVESTING ≡ FORTUNE Subscr INVEST 's a '10% to 20% chance' that Al SLA 7+0.1% DOW JONES7+0.52% isplace humans completely, says NEWSLETTERS· CFO DAILY NASDAQ7 +0.65% S&P 500 7 +0.53% AAP MIT report: 95% of generative AI pilots at AI Anthro to 6 companies are failing Anthropic's CEO says that in 3 to 6 months, Al will be writing 90% of the BY SHERYL ESTRADA . code software developers were in August 18, 2025 at 6:54 AM EDT charge of + Follow ather' of the technology ue, Jun 17 2025·2:54 PM EDT on Jackson Huddleston Jr. X in By Kwan Wei Ke ByKwan Wei Kevin Tan WORLD WORLD WO ECONOMIC AIChatbot Al assistant ECON ONOMIC ECON Ai Ai Ai FORUM ORUM FOR Prompti RLD WORLD OMIC ECONOMIC UM FORUM Benedict Evans –– November 2025 7
The live streaming industry experienced a period of stabilization and strategic maturation throughout 2024, characterized by a modest 3% year-over-year increase in total hours watched across major platforms. This growth brought the global annual viewership to approximately 35 billion hours, signaling a shift from the volatile surges of previous years toward a more sustainable, long-term trajectory. While Twitch maintained its position as the market leader in terms of total hours watched, its market share faced increasing pressure from YouTube Gaming and Kick, the latter of which saw a 45% increase in viewership as it successfully attracted high-profile creators through non-exclusive contracts and aggressive revenue-sharing models. Geographically, the Asia-Pacific region remains the primary engine for mobile streaming growth, while North American and European markets show a deepening preference for high-production "eventized" content. Non-gaming content, specifically the Just Chatting category, continues to dominate the landscape, accounting for nearly 15% of all platform activity. However, the competitive gaming sector saw a resurgence driven by the massive success of tactical shooters and the expansion of co-streaming rights for major esports tournaments. These community-driven broadcasts often outperformed official channels, representing a fundamental shift in how audiences consume professional competitive play. The integration of artificial intelligence and enhanced monetization tools defined the technological landscape of the year. Creators increasingly utilized AI-driven moderation and clip-generation tools to maximize reach across short-form video platforms like TikTok and Instagram Reels, which now serve as the primary discovery funnel for live broadcasts. Brands have responded by shifting budgets toward long-term creator partnerships rather than one-off sponsorships, seeking to capitalize on the high engagement rates of mid-tier streamers who boast more dedicated, niche communities. As the industry moves into 2025, the convergence of live commerce and interactive broadcasting is expected to become the next major frontier for platform revenue.
Decoding the Breakout AI Across Finance, Social, and Health Apps, the 2026 Global Mobile App Marketing Trends White Paper Uncovers the Drivers In 2025, the global mobile app market experienced a fundamental shift. Traffic-driven growth approaches reached their limits, and broad, volume-oriented strategies began to lose traction. Instead, value-led operations, technology-enabled optimization, and deep localization emerged as the primary drivers of sustainable growth.
The industry snapshot reveals a workforce that remains predominantly male and White, yet shows growing diversity in gender identity, sexual orientation, and geographic mobility. Two‑thirds of respondents are male, 24 % female, and 8 % non‑binary, with 28 % identifying as LGBTQ+. The U.S. dominates the sample (54 %), and California remains the top state of residence, while Washington has experienced the largest influx. Most workers are under 35 (64 %) and concentrated in design, programming, and visual arts roles. Layoffs continue to be a significant concern, especially within AAA studios where two‑thirds of respondents report company layoffs and nearly one in five have been personally let go. Indie studios experience fewer corporate cuts, yet a higher proportion of individuals report personal layoffs. Roughly half of all respondents anticipate no layoffs in the next year, but those with prior layoff experience express greater uncertainty. Generative AI elicits polarized views: 42 % see it as a productivity catalyst, while 38 % view it as ethically problematic and potentially job‑threatening. The debate centers on balancing efficiency gains against concerns over originality, labor displacement, and environmental impact. VR/AR/MR remains a niche segment, with only 8 % of respondents engaged in such projects. Meta Quest/Horizon dominates the market, and accessibility features are widely adopted, though advanced options lag behind. Monetization trends show premium titles favor digital downloads and physical copies, whereas free‑to‑play games rely heavily on in‑app purchases for currency and cosmetics. Crunch culture persists, with 87 % of workers clocking overtime in the past year and over half citing essential work or self‑pressure as drivers. Union support is strong in the U.S., with 82 % backing unionization and a majority expressing interest, though leadership opinions are slightly more divided.
H O W A I + G A M E D E S IG N THEWORLD OF CONSUMER TECH IS CHANGING 1990 2007 2023 2026 INTERNET MOBILE AI APPS AI APPS ERA ERA 1 .0 2 .0 The web goes Computing moves Chat w rappers. A A gents, interfaces, public. Everything into the pocket. new wave of and entirely new gets connected.