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TWIG #356 Epic vs Google, Roblox’s Rough Quarter, Supercell Pulls the Plug
The mobile gaming landscape is undergoing a significant structural shift following the settlement between Epic Games and Google, which concludes five years of litigation.
- The Epic Games vs. Google settlement mandates a tiered fee structure through 2032, charging 9% for non-gameplay items and 20% for gameplay-affecting purchases, which incentivizes developers to shift toward direct-to-consumer billing.
- Supercell canceled Squad Busters despite the title generating $100 million in gross revenue, as it failed to meet long-term viability standards after an estimated $150 million investment in development and marketing.
- Roblox reached 151 million daily active users and record bookings in Q3 2025, yet continues to face investor skepticism due to margin compression caused by rising infrastructure costs and expensive international user acquisition.
Week in Mobile Games E70 - Squad Busters shuts down and Google Play's transformative changes
The mobile games industry is currently navigating significant shifts in development strategy, platform regulation, and corporate restructuring.
- Supercell is shutting down Squad Busters, which launched in May 2024, after the game failed to meet internal performance expectations despite generating over $100 million in lifetime revenue. In-app purchases will be disabled on October 30, 2024, and the game will receive its final update in December.
- Following an injunction in the Epic Games vs. Google case, Google Play in the US is now required to allow alternative payment methods and permit developers to communicate pricing options outside of the Google Play billing system as of October 29, 2024.
- Amazon is cutting approximately 14,000 corporate jobs, with significant layoffs impacting its games division, specifically in the San Diego and Irvine offices, alongside the closure of the game New World.
Squad Busters, Sandsoft, Boss Fight, the ‘billion dollar blueprint’, Google Play, more
The mobile gaming industry is currently experiencing a period of significant consolidation and studio restructuring, marked by the high-profile closure of several notable titles and development teams.
- The mobile gaming industry is undergoing significant consolidation, evidenced by the closure of Sandsoft, Netflix's shuttering of Boss Fight, and Supercell’s decision to discontinue Squad Busters by mid-2026 due to poor long-term retention.
- Hybrid-casual games are experiencing rapid growth, recording a 114% increase in in-app purchase revenue during the third quarter.
- Google has opened the US Play Store to alternative payment systems, aligning with broader industry trends toward payment liberation for mobile developers.
Istanbul Is Building Gaming Giants
Cipher Games, a mobile developer based in Istanbul, recently secured $30 million in Series A funding led by the Rain Group and Play Ventures.
- Istanbul-based mobile developer Cipher Games secured $30 million in Series A funding led by Rain Group and Play Ventures, bringing its total capital raised to $43 million since 2022.
- Cipher Games is currently test-launching its debut title, Match Squad, in the Philippines, Indonesia, and the UK to refine its hybrid mechanics.
- Match Squad differentiates itself by combining traditional match-3 gameplay with a die-roll system inspired by titles like Monopoly Go and Coin Master.
Supercell’s First Flop? Squad Busters Still Busting
Supercell is currently facing a critical juncture as its recent performance, particularly regarding the mobile title Squad Busters, suggests a shift from its historical culture of innovation toward a more stagnant, corporate structure.
- Supercell is struggling to maintain its historical culture of agility as the underperformance of Squad Busters, two years post-launch, signals a shift toward a stagnant, corporate structure.
- The company has not produced a major successful game launch since 2018, putting significant pressure on its current portfolio and growth strategy.
- Internal pressures related to a potential IPO have created a reluctance to sunset underperforming titles, contradicting the studio's long-standing philosophy of killing unsuccessful projects.
Supercell Revenue by Year (2015 – 2025)
Supercell has established itself as a dominant force in the mobile gaming industry, generating over $13.58 billion in total lifetime revenue as of 2026.
- Supercell’s annual revenue has experienced a long-term downward trend since its peak in 2015 ($1.9 billion), hitting a low of $788.5 million in 2023 before rebounding to $1.45 billion in 2024.
- Brawl Stars is the company’s most volatile asset, experiencing a significant resurgence in 2024 with $678.5 million in revenue, more than doubling its 2023 performance.
- Clash of Clans remains the company’s primary revenue anchor, consistently serving as the top-earning title for over a decade despite a gradual decline from its $1.36 billion peak in 2015.
🎬 Creative Trends June 2025: Why AI, ASMR & Copy-Paste Are Redefining Mobile Ads
The mobile gaming advertising landscape in mid-2025 is defined by a strategic shift toward long-form video content and the aggressive iteration of proven creative concepts.
- Mobile gaming ads are shifting toward long-form content ranging from 50 seconds to five minutes to improve user pre-qualification and secure better auction placement.
- AI tools like Topaz AI are now the primary engine for mobile ad production, enabling rapid generation and upscaling of assets to mimic user-generated content styles.
- Developers are increasingly utilizing a 'copy-paste' strategy by re-skinning proven mechanics like resource management and character-saving puzzles to minimize innovation risk.
BBC Interview Reveals Supercell’s Next Move!
Supercell is currently navigating a period of strategic transition, characterized by a push for bold innovation and a potential move toward an initial public offering.
- Supercell is signaling a potential IPO by shifting its communication strategy toward institutional investors, emphasizing AI integration and risk-taking via new labs in Helsinki and San Francisco.
- The company’s portfolio performance has declined by approximately 20% when comparing the first half of 2024 to the same period in 2025.
- Brawl Stars revenue has experienced a sharp correction, falling from a peak of $80 million to roughly $40 million in monthly revenue.
Squad Busters 2.0 and mo.co: What We Learned from Supercell's Experimental Era
Supercell is currently navigating a transitional phase characterized by aggressive experimentation with new titles, specifically Squad Busters and mo.co.
- Supercell is actively testing new growth strategies by bypassing traditional soft-launch protocols to bridge the gap between casual accessibility and midcore depth.
- Both Squad Busters and mo.co have failed to meet the high performance benchmarks established by Supercell’s historical portfolio.
- Squad Busters has pivoted its monetization strategy away from gameplay-affecting consumables toward a midcore-oriented framework.
Mid-May 2025 Video Game Industry Insights: Revenue Shifts and New Ventures
Mid-May 2025 industry data reveal a mixed landscape of declining revenues for major publishers, offset by strategic pivots and new hardware launches.
- Warner Bros. games revenue dropped 48% for the quarter ending March 31, 2025, primarily due to the underperformance of Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League.
- Ubisoft shifted from a €401 million profit in Q1 2024 to a €15 million net loss this quarter, prompting the creation of a new €4 billion subsidiary backed by €1.2 billion from Tencent.
- Nintendo reported a 30% annual revenue decline and a 22% drop in Switch hardware sales, though projections suggest a 63% revenue increase next fiscal year driven by Switch 2 anticipation and 2 million Japanese pre-orders.
Week in Mobile Games E53 - Will Squad Busters 2.0 revive its fortunes?
Supercell is currently navigating a critical juncture for its mobile portfolio, specifically regarding the performance of Squad Busters.
- Supercell is attempting to pivot Squad Busters from a squad-based mechanic to a hero-centric model in its 2.0 update to resolve an identity crisis between casual and midcore audiences.
- The 2.0 update for Squad Busters has triggered significant player backlash due to the aggressive removal of established progression systems and features.
- The mobile industry is experiencing increased volatility, highlighted by the recent indefinite delay of a major title just one week before its scheduled launch.
Squad Busters 2.0 and Supercell's YOLO Game Launch Strategy
Supercell’s Squad Busters 2.0 represents a strategic pivot from a casual, broad-market mobile game to a midcore-focused experience.
- Supercell has abandoned its traditional 18-month iterative testing cycle in favor of an aggressive 'YOLO' launch strategy, prioritizing rapid market entry over the rigorous internal feedback gauntlets that previously defined its success.
- Squad Busters 2.0 is underperforming financially, with monetization metrics currently falling below one dollar per download.
- The game suffers from a lack of cohesive identity, remaining caught between the strategic depth of auto-battlers and the real-time action of brawlers, which contributes to persistent issues with gameplay chaos and limited depth.