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Epic Games Store Launches First Run Program
Epic Games has introduced the First Run program, a strategic initiative designed to incentivize third-party developers to launch new titles exclusively on the Epic Games Store.
- Participating developers retain 100% of their revenue for the first six months following a game's release on the Epic Games Store.
- After the initial six-month exclusivity period, the revenue split reverts to the standard Epic Games Store 88/12 model.
- To qualify, titles must be new releases launching on or after October 16, 2023, and must not have been previously available on other third-party PC storefronts or subscription services.
Estimating Early Access Success
Early Access serves as a high-risk, high-reward strategy for game developers, functioning effectively as a full product launch rather than a mere testing phase.
- There is a strong correlation (0.75 coefficient) between Early Access (EA) launch performance and full 1.0 release success, indicating that initial launch metrics are highly predictive of long-term outcomes.
- On average, games see a 3.78x increase in review counts from their first month of EA to their first month of 1.0, though the median increase is only 1.4x, suggesting that most games do not experience explosive growth during the transition.
- A game that fails to gain traction at the start of EA is unlikely to recover; only one game in a sample of 2,313 managed to grow from fewer than 10 reviews in its first month of EA to over 1,000 reviews by its 1.0 launch.
Frequently Asked Questions About Steam Next Fest
Steam Next Fest serves as a critical strategic milestone for independent game developers, functioning best as the final promotional event before a game’s official launch.
- Steam Next Fest (SNF) is a one-time opportunity per game, so developers should reserve their participation for the final festival immediately preceding their official launch.
- Visibility in SNF is driven by wishlist volume and velocity; developers should prioritize extensive playtesting and bug-fixing over securing editorial featuring, which provides minimal measurable traffic impact.
- To maximize visibility, developers should stream 24/7 during the festival and schedule their two featured hours during low-traffic periods (e.g., 2 AM PST) to avoid competition for the limited front-page widget slots.
Your Early Access Launch Is Your Launch
This analysis examines the strategic relationship between Steam Early Access and full 1.0 releases, arguing that the transition to 1.0 is rarely a transformative discovery event.
- For 95% of games, the transition from Early Access to 1.0 does not trigger a transformative discovery event and functions primarily as a discount-driven sales bump.
- Steam’s discovery algorithms do not distinguish between Early Access and 1.0 titles, meaning the initial Early Access launch effectively serves as the game's primary market debut.
- Successful 1.0 transitions are rare outliers that require significant, influencer-driven content updates to overcome the fact that core audiences are typically captured during the initial release.
Desynced: How an 'Automation X RTS' Hybrid Found a Steam Audience
The successful Early Access launch of Desynced serves as a primary case study for how complex genre hybrids find dedicated audiences on Steam.
- The hybrid title Desynced sold over 20,000 units in its first three days, driven by a niche focus on automation and RTS mechanics and high engagement with an average playtime of 16 hours.
- Roblox maintains massive scale with 65 million daily active users, highlighting the continued dominance of platform-based creator economies.
- PlayStation controller usage on Steam has grown significantly, rising from 11% of total controller sessions in 2018 to 27% in 2023.
Should You Do Early Access?
The analysis evaluates the strategic viability of Steam Early Access (EA) for independent game developers, weighing the potential for increased visibility against the significant operational risks.
- Early Access is a high-risk, high-reward strategy where success depends on reaching a 1.0 release; however, a significant portion of games never transition out of Early Access, with 90% of titles from 2016 failing to reach 1.0.
- For games with at least 100 reviews, the median revenue for a 1.0 release is $77,000, compared to $62,828 for Early Access and $43,500 for a normal launch, suggesting that completing the full development cycle provides a financial advantage.
- Early Access provides two distinct marketing opportunities: an initial launch email to wishlisters and a second, free visibility boost when the game officially transitions to 1.0.
Paradox Interactive Q2 2023 Financial Results
Paradox Interactive’s financial results for the second quarter of 2023 demonstrate significant growth, driven by a strategic focus on core franchises and the successful release of new titles.
- Paradox Interactive reported Q2 2023 revenue of SEK 737.3 million, a 61% year-over-year increase, with operating profit rising 37% to SEK 292.9 million.
- The United States is the company's primary market, accounting for 86% of total revenue, while Europe and Sweden contributed 10% and 2.2% respectively.
- PC gaming remains the dominant platform, generating 79.9% of sales, compared to 14.8% from consoles and 2.2% from mobile.
Plus: Rogue Trader Smashes It as The Day Before Bombs
This analysis examines the performance of major video game releases during the second week of December 2023, focusing on Steam and console market trends.
- The Finals dominated the second week of December 2023 with 200,000 peak concurrent users (CCU) on Steam, despite facing minor community pushback regarding AI voice acting and movement mechanics.
- The Day Before experienced a catastrophic launch characterized by high refund rates and overwhelmingly negative reviews, despite initially reaching 38,000 peak CCU.
- Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader leveraged its strong IP and developer reputation in the CRPG genre to achieve a successful launch with over 31,000 peak CCU on Steam.
Wartales: How Did It Sell 600k Copies on Steam?
Wartales, a party-based medieval RPG developed by Shiro Games, serves as a primary case study for achieving significant commercial success on Steam through systems-driven gameplay and effective community management.
- Shiro Games' Wartales achieved over 600,000 unit sales and one million wishlists by pivoting from a management-focused title to a nomadic mercenary RPG.
- The game’s focus on player-driven narratives resulted in high engagement, with 35% of reviewers logging over 100 hours of playtime.
- Wartales successfully targeted a specific niche audience that overlaps significantly with players of Expeditions: Rome, King Arthur: Knight’s Tale, and Battle Brothers.
How Roguelite Hockey Game Tape to Tape Generated $600k by Finding Right Niche and Marketing Strategy
The indie sports title Tape to Tape demonstrates that niche innovation can overcome the dominance of AAA franchises in the sports gaming sector.
- Tape to Tape generated $635,674 in gross revenue and sold 34,020 units within the first eight days of its May 2023 Early Access launch.
- The game achieved a 91% positive review rating and a 41:1 sales-to-review ratio, demonstrating strong player satisfaction and conversion.
- Steam Next Fest was a primary driver of visibility, contributing over 27,000 wishlists to the game's pre-launch total.
Wildfrost, Boundary Go Big in Their Launch Week
This analysis evaluates the commercial performance and market trends of video games during the mid-April 2023 period, focusing on Steam debuts, upcoming releases, and cross-platform console charts.
- Boundary achieved a strong Steam debut of 25,000 concurrent users (CCU), significantly bolstered by the Chinese market.
- Wartales reached 16,700 CCU during its 1.0 launch, while Wildfrost hit 5,800 CCU and is projected to sell over 100,000 units in its first week despite mixed reviews.
- Minecraft Legends leads upcoming Steam releases with over 13,700 followers, outpacing Survival: Fountain of Youth and Coffee Talk Episode 2.
PC & Console Games: Predictions for 2023
The PC and console gaming landscape in 2023 is characterized by a shift toward deeper, more complex gameplay and a strategic preference for PC-first release cycles.
- The GaaS market is highly consolidated, with only about 60 titles on PlayStation maintaining over 100,000 daily active users, making it difficult for new entrants to compete with established incumbents.
- Non-AAA developers are increasingly prioritizing a 'PC-first' release strategy, using Steam Early Access to refine products before investing in console ports.
- Middle-market games with budgets between $1.5 million and $7 million face significant financial risk and often require secured subscription deals to achieve a return on investment.