Market Forecast

The video game markets across Asia and the Middle East are entering a period of recalibrated growth, with total revenues across key sub-regions projected to reach significant milestones by 2025. China remains the dominant force, with revenues expected to hit $51.2 billion in 2025, supported by a 4.1% year-over-year increase. This growth is fueled by a 24% rise in game approvals and proactive government subsidies. While China maintains a steady long-term outlook with a 3.0% five-year compound annual growth rate, India emerges as the fastest-growing market. India is projected to surpass the $1 billion threshold in 2025 with a 16.2% year-over-year increase, driven by the PROG Act of 2025, which pivoted the industry away from real-money gaming toward traditional video games and esports.

Regional performance varies significantly based on local macroeconomic conditions and hardware cycles. East Asia, comprising Japan and South Korea, shows a more optimistic outlook than previously anticipated, with a revised five-year growth rate of 1.7%. This shift is attributed to the successful launch of the Nintendo Switch 2 and a recovery in the South Korean mobile sector. Conversely, Southeast Asia and the MENA-3 region (Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt) face more tempered expectations. Southeast Asia’s growth forecast was lowered to 3.5% due to headwinds in Thailand and Indonesia, despite strong performance in Vietnam. Similarly, the MENA-3 forecast was adjusted downward to a 6.4% growth rate as economic challenges in Egypt and slower mobile growth in Saudi Arabia offset increased government support for localization and age-rating reforms.

The data, derived from Niko Partners’ 2025 half-year market model updates, covers PC, mobile, and console platforms across 13 distinct markets. The methodology integrates proprietary market models, macroeconomic indicators, and qualitative regulatory analysis to provide a comprehensive five-year outlook through 2029. Overall, the findings suggest that while mature markets like China and East Asia are stabilizing, emerging markets like India and Vietnam are becoming critical drivers of global industry expansion.

The video gaming industry is transitioning into a new era of growth following a post-pandemic stabilization period. While the sector is unlikely to replicate the rapid doubling of the 2010s, a convergence of technological and structural shifts is expected to revitalize the market. This evolution is driven by four primary strategic trends: the integration of Generative AI, the expansion of the user-generated content (UGC) creator economy, the mainstream adoption of cloud gaming, and the regulatory opening of mobile app stores.

Key findings indicate that Generative AI is already being utilized by approximately 50% of studios to improve development efficiency and create adaptive gameplay, with 20% of new Steam games disclosing AI use by mid-2025. Simultaneously, the creator economy is surging; payouts from platforms like Roblox and Fortnite are projected to exceed $1.5 billion in 2025. Cloud gaming is also positioned for a massive scale-up, with revenues forecasted to grow from $1.4 billion in 2025 to $18.3 billion by 2030. This shift toward hardware-agnostic play is mirrored in distribution, where 33% of adult gamers have already purchased titles directly from developer web stores to bypass traditional platform fees.

The scope of this analysis is global, with a particular focus on major markets including the US, China, Germany, Japan, and South Korea. It covers the industry from late 2025 through projections for 2030, spanning mobile, console, and PC segments. Data is derived from the Global Gaming Survey of approximately 3,000 gamers, metadata analysis of the Steam platform, and interviews with industry leaders and developers.

The industry concludes that success in this new landscape requires a departure from traditional "console war" mentalities in favor of ecosystem-based strategies. Developers must master new monetization models, such as tiered pricing and windowing, to protect the value of premium content while navigating a market increasingly defined by infinite digital shelf space and algorithmic discovery.

The Indian interactive media and gaming market reached a valuation of $3.8 billion in FY24, representing a significant 30% share of the country’s broader $12.5 billion new media sector. Growth is characterized by a 20% five-year projected CAGR, with expectations to exceed $9.2 billion by FY29. This expansion is primarily driven by a 41% year-on-year increase in in-app purchase revenue, particularly within the midcore segment, which grew by 53%. While Real Money Gaming (RMG) remains a major contributor, recent changes to the GST regime have led to margin compression and increased user acquisition costs for operators in that sub-sector.

The player base in India has expanded to 590 million gamers, with 148 million identified as paying users. Engagement metrics show a 30% increase in average weekly time spent, rising from 10 to 13 hours. Demographic data reveals a diversifying landscape where 44% of gamers are women and 66% reside in non-metro cities. Notably, there is a high degree of overlap between gaming categories, as over 60% of RMG paying users also spend money on midcore titles. Payment behaviors are heavily modernized, with 83% of users utilizing UPI or digital wallets for transactions.

The regulatory environment is shifting toward formal recognition and support, with the government identifying gaming as a "sunrise sector." New frameworks distinguish between RMG and Free-to-Play (F2P) games for taxation purposes, while esports has been officially integrated under the Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports. These findings are based on a mixed-methods research design conducted between May and October 2024, incorporating a primary survey of 2,269 smartphone users across 16 Indian cities alongside secondary analysis of financial statements and proprietary industry data.

PCF Group S.A. reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2024, highlighting a period of significant revenue growth and improved profitability. The primary thesis of the financial update is the successful execution of the group’s multi-project strategy, supported by both work-for-hire contracts and the development of original intellectual property. Geographically, the group maintains a strong international presence with major studios in Warsaw, Rzeszów, Montreal, and Newcastle, supported by a total workforce of 763 people as of March 31, 2024.

Financial performance in Q1 2024 showed a substantial increase in revenue to 56.9 million PLN, compared to 34.9 million PLN in the same period the previous year. This growth was driven by the release of Bulletstorm VR and ongoing work on Project Maverick. EBITDA rose to 11.0 million PLN, a significant improvement over the 3.0 million PLN recorded in Q1 2023. Net profit also turned positive, reaching 11.0 million PLN compared to a net loss of 0.9 million PLN in the prior year. Management attributed this increased profitability to a high revenue base and a disciplined cost approach, despite increased spending on the publishing team.

The production pipeline remains robust across several segments. In the AAA category, Projects Bifrost and Victoria are progressing according to schedule under a self-publishing model, both having received internal greenlights for 2025-2026 release windows. The VR segment, managed through InCuvo, continues development on Green Hell VR updates and the upcoming Project Bison. Additionally, work-for-hire projects remain stable, with Project Maverick reaching its target developer headcount and negotiations continuing with Square Enix regarding other collaborations. The balance sheet remains healthy, with 138.6 million PLN in cash and bonds and total assets valued at 505.1 million PLN.

The Indian media and entertainment sector reached a valuation of INR2.32 trillion in 2023, marking an 8.1% growth rate driven primarily by digital media and online gaming. While television remains the largest individual segment, the industry is transitioning into a "linear and digital" hybrid market, with digital media expected to become the dominant segment by 2024. Total industry revenue is projected to exceed INR3 trillion by 2026, supported by a 10% CAGR and a massive expansion of active screens, which are expected to reach nearly one billion by 2030.

The digital surge is characterized by a "vernacular-first" strategy and the rapid rise of Connected TV, which is anticipated to reach 100 million homes by 2030. Online gaming has emerged as a powerhouse, surpassing filmed entertainment to become the fourth-largest segment despite a new 28% GST mandate. While traditional mediums like print and radio remain resilient and profitable, they are pivoting toward niche audiences and hyper-local advertising to maintain relevance. Meanwhile, the filmed entertainment sector saw record revenues in 2023, fueled by a revival in Hindi cinema and premium experiential offerings, even as theater admissions faced pressure from rising costs.

The industry is currently navigating a "profitability-first" era defined by consolidation and technological integration. Generative AI is expected to provide an INR450 billion boost by 2027 through enhanced content creation and operational efficiencies. However, significant challenges remain, including low digital monetization relative to high engagement levels, digital ad fraud, and a tightening regulatory landscape. New frameworks, such as the Digital Personal Data Protection Act and updated broadcasting bills, are forcing companies to balance aggressive AI-driven personalization with stringent compliance and data transparency requirements.

The manifesto articulates a strategic vision for positioning Europe as a leading global hub for video‑game development, emphasizing the sector’s unique blend of technology and creativity. It calls for coordinated EU‑wide actions to strengthen the talent pipeline, ensure transparent content acquisition, and protect the distinctive nature of games while integrating them responsibly into broader cultural and educational contexts. Central to the argument is the need to maintain an open, competitive market; any imposed taxes, fees, or distribution constraints are portrayed as threats to investment, innovation, and the integrity of the single European market.

Key proposals include adapting the Creative Europe programme and extending the General Exemption Regulation to accommodate the specific requirements of video games, thereby aligning funding mechanisms with industry realities. The manifesto underscores the value of the PEGI rating system and co‑regulation, urging continued support for self‑regulatory frameworks that address consumer and business concerns swiftly. It advocates for comprehensive intellectual‑property safeguards, revised NACE codes to capture the sector’s economic contribution, and targeted funding through Horizon initiatives for mapping and skill‑gap analysis.

The scope spans the entire European Union and its member states, covering policy, education, and market regulation for the video‑game industry over the 2024‑2029 horizon. While no quantitative survey data are presented, the text references a network of national associations and industry bodies, indicating broad stakeholder consultation. The overarching aim is to foster diversity, equality, inclusion, climate responsibility, and child‑protection within a thriving European gaming ecosystem.

The global mobile gaming market experienced a period of stabilization in 2023, with total in-app purchase (IAP) revenue reaching $76.7 billion. While this figure represents a 2% year-on-year decline, it remains 22% higher than pre-pandemic levels recorded in 2019. The industry outlook is positive, with revenue projected to rebound to $78 billion in 2024 and surpass $100 billion by 2028, reflecting an anticipated average annual growth rate of approximately 6.8%.

Market performance in 2023 was characterized by a shift in consumer preference away from mid-core and hardcore genres toward casual and hybrid-casual titles. Casual gaming revenue grew by 8% to $28.6 billion, now accounting for 38% of the global market. Within this segment, puzzle and board games performed exceptionally well, with both genres reaching $10 billion in revenue. Notable titles such as Royal Match and MONOPOLY GO! were primary drivers of this growth, with the latter emerging as a significant revenue contributor in the board game category. Conversely, traditional powerhouses like RPG and strategy games saw revenue declines of 10% as the pandemic-driven stay-at-home demand subsided.

Geographically, the United States remains the largest mobile gaming market, generating $22.2 billion in 2023. While the U.S. market remained stable, other key regions experienced varied results; the Chinese iOS market held steady, whereas Japan and South Korea saw revenue contractions of 13% and 7%, respectively. Despite broader genre declines, high-quality new releases—particularly in the RPG sector—continued to secure top positions in growth rankings. The analysis relies on estimated IAP data from the Apple App Store and Google Play, excluding advertising revenue and third-party Android marketplace income.

The Summer Edition of the Xsolla Report demonstrates that indie game development has entered a phase of rapid democratization and commercial viability. Accessible engines such as Unity, Unreal, and the fast‑growing Godot now dominate production pipelines, enabling more than 8 000 titles to launch in 2023. Coupled with free or low‑cost asset stores and cloud backend services, indie studios can cut development time and costs dramatically, accelerating time‑to‑market and allowing them to compete with larger studios.

Sales data confirm the shift: indie titles generated over $15 million in lifetime revenue on Steam alone, and now account for 31 % of total Steam earnings. Action, adventure, and RPG genres remain the most lucrative, while indie games enjoy higher average Steam ratings (≈72 %) than AAA titles. The market share of indie games on PC and console platforms rose from 13 % in 2021 to 18 % in the United States, underscoring a growing consumer appetite for independent titles.

Influencer marketing has become the primary driver of discovery and purchase decisions, with YouTube still commanding the highest impact but TikTok and Instagram offering more cost‑effective alternatives. The sector’s marketing spend is projected to triple, reaching $24 billion by 2024. Meanwhile, the convergence of education and gaming—through MOOCs, online academies, and immersive technologies—has expanded the talent pipeline, raising average developer salaries from $60 k in 2010 to $95 k in 2024.

Geographically, the report focuses on North America and Europe, with a particular emphasis on U.S. market dynamics, while the time frame spans 2021–2024. The findings highlight that strategic adaptability, influencer partnerships, and cloud‑based commerce tools are essential for publishers, developers, and investors to capture the expanding indie market.

Mobile market analysts project a dynamic yet uneven 2024 landscape, with generative AI and video‑first platforms driving growth while text‑centric microblogging contracts. Global app store revenue is expected to reach $111.4 billion, a 4 % rebound after a 3 % decline in 2023, with the United States accounting for roughly 80 % of that uptick. Gaming spend is projected to climb back to $111 billion, up 4 % from the 2023 forecast of $107.5 billion; key growth will come from RPG, match‑making, party and casino titles, particularly in the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Germany and the UK.

Video‑centric social media continues to dominate consumer spending, with TikTok poised to surpass $14.6 billion in lifetime spend and reach a $16 billion milestone by year‑end. The platform’s average monthly user hours are projected to hit 40 hours in December 2024, up from 32.5 hours in October 2023, underscoring its monetization potential beyond advertising through tipping and subscription models. In contrast, microblogging apps such as X (Twitter) and Threads are forecast to see daily active users fall by 53 million and 20 million respectively, reflecting a shift toward photo‑and video‑first experiences.

Generative AI apps are set to experience a 40 % year‑over‑year download growth, with AI chatbots and art generators leading the surge. The overall trend suggests that AI‑enhanced features, video content, and direct consumer monetization will shape the mobile ecosystem in 2024, while traditional ad‑driven models face increasing pressure.

Global mobile gaming experienced a minor 2% year-on-year decline in in-app purchase revenue in 2023, totaling $76.7 billion. Despite this slight contraction, the market remains 22% larger than pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Projections indicate a recovery to $78 billion in 2024, with a long-term growth trajectory expected to surpass $100 billion by 2028 at an average annual growth rate of 6.8%. These findings are based on Sensor Tower App Performance Insights, covering the App Store and Google Play across major global markets including the United States, China, Japan, and South Korea.

The industry is currently defined by a shift in consumer spending from mid-core and hardcore titles toward casual and hybrid-casual models. Casual game revenue grew 8% to $28.6 billion in 2023, now accounting for 38% of the global market. Hybrid-casual games showed the most aggressive growth, increasing 30% to exceed $2.1 billion. In contrast, traditional high-revenue genres like RPGs and Strategy games both saw 10% revenue declines as the pandemic-era stay-at-home boost faded. Despite these drops, RPGs and Strategy remain the largest individual segments, generating $20 billion and $14.8 billion respectively.

Geographically, the United States remains the largest market at $22.2 billion, followed by the Chinese iOS market at $15.1 billion. While the Japanese and South Korean markets saw declines of 13% and 7% respectively, specific titles defied broader trends. MONOPOLY GO! and Royal Match emerged as major drivers in the casual sector, with the former generating $1.2 billion and the latter surpassing Candy Crush Saga in monthly revenue. In the mid-core space, new entrants like Honkai: Star Rail and Whiteout Survival achieved significant growth, particularly in APAC markets, by utilizing innovative themes and integrated gameplay mechanics.

The global games market in 2024 is characterized by a period of stabilization and strategic restructuring following the post-pandemic correction. While the industry saw a revenue decline in 2022, recovery began in 2023 and is expected to continue through 2024, driven largely by the expanding install base of current-generation consoles like the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. Despite this growth, the year is defined as a lean period for many companies as they navigate high interest rates, reduced investment capital, and a highly competitive landscape where a small number of titles dominate the majority of player engagement.

Key findings indicate a significant shift in business models and platform strategies. While live-service games remain the primary revenue drivers, the market is experiencing oversaturation, leading many developers to return to premium, finite gaming experiences. Growth in multi-game subscription services is expected to slow as they face competition from free-to-play social platforms like Fortnite and Roblox. Additionally, mobile developers are increasingly diversifying by bringing their titles to PC to combat rising user acquisition costs and stricter privacy regulations. Major hardware and distribution shifts are also anticipated, including the launch of a new Nintendo console and the introduction of an Xbox mobile store on Android.

The scope of this analysis covers global market trends across PC, console, and mobile segments, with revenue forecasting extending through 2026. The methodology combines internal market data and analyst perspectives with a survey of gaming executives and industry experts from companies such as Ubisoft, Iron Galaxy Studios, and Savvy Games Group. Emerging technologies like generative AI are identified as tools for increasing production efficiency, though they are not expected to transform game development at scale within the immediate calendar year. Overall, the industry is moving toward risk-reduction strategies, focusing on established intellectual properties and cross-platform accessibility to maintain stability.