Marketing reports and market data
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Two & a Half Gamers37 min
two & a half gamers session #51 - Live Special @ Gamesforum Barcelona
The mobile gaming industry is currently undergoing a structural shift toward aggressive monetization and rapid capital recovery.
- Mobile game developers have shifted from one-year payback targets to aggressive 30-to-90-day windows to combat global economic uncertainty and ensure rapid capital recovery.
- Studios are increasingly prioritizing ad-monetized titles and low-cost user acquisition strategies to maintain financial viability in a competitive market.
- Transitioning to advanced mediation solutions like AppLovin’s MAX can generate a 6 to 7 percent revenue uplift, provided that ad formats and end-card configurations are meticulously managed.
Two & a Half GamersMay 2024
Two & a Half Gamers45 min
two & a half gamers session #49 - How to leverage User Churn Prediction? Why is it important?
User churn prediction serves as a vital data science strategy for maximizing player lifetime value and long-term retention within the mobile gaming industry.
- User churn prediction models should aim for high accuracy, as relying on generic rules—such as assuming a user is lost after seven days of inactivity—can cause studios to miss high-value whales who exhibit unique engagement patterns.
- Data science models for churn should be evaluated using the Area Under the Curve (AUC/AUROC) metric rather than simple accuracy to ensure the model effectively distinguishes between at-risk and retained users.
- After seven days of inactivity, the probability of a mobile game user returning drops below 5%, whereas a two-day inactivity window typically leaves a 25% chance of return.
Two & a Half GamersMay 2024
Two & a Half Gamers51 min
two & a half gamers session #47 - Creative trends 2023, 1 year anniversary - kudos to you
Mobile gaming user acquisition in 2023 is defined by a strategic shift toward hyper-casual mechanics and deceptive creative concepts.
- Mobile gaming development is shifting toward a philosophy where core game loops are designed specifically to match high-performing marketing creative concepts.
- Top-tier strategy games like Kingdom Guard and Top War are integrating popular mini-game mechanics directly into their tutorials and narratives to align user acquisition hooks with actual gameplay.
- The industry is moving away from purely deceptive advertising to avoid player backlash and poor retention, opting instead to embed proven ad mechanics into the core product experience.
Two & a Half GamersMay 2024
Two & a Half Gamers50 min
two & a half gamers session #44 - New creative strategy from CN, UA winner of 2022, games update
The mobile gaming industry is currently defined by a tension between aggressive, often ethically questionable creative strategies and the necessity of data-driven user acquisition.
- TikTok has emerged as the top-performing acquisition channel for 2022, consistently delivering lower costs per install and higher returns on ad spend compared to traditional platforms like Facebook and Google.
- Top-tier titles such as Survivor.io and Goddess of Victory: Nikke are driving revenue through sophisticated live-ops and event-driven spikes, while Marvel Snap utilizes progression-based bundles to maintain monetization.
- The industry is shifting toward more direct sales of power and progression to stabilize revenue streams amidst a broader move toward diversifying user acquisition channels.
Two & a Half GamersMay 2024
Two & a Half Gamers59 min
two & a half gamers session #41 - Stop with sexist ads, Q4 Admn round up, Goddess of Victory review
Mobile gaming experienced a notable surge in eCPM performance during the fourth quarter, with growth ranging from 3.15% to 25.4% as advertisers intensified holiday spending.
- The mobile game 'Goddess of Victory: NIKKE' generated $83 million in revenue during its first month, significantly outperforming the launch trajectory of similar titles like Azur Lane.
- US consumer spending on Black Friday reached $9.12 billion, a 2.3% increase over the previous year, though a 72% surge in 'Buy Now, Pay Later' financing suggests future consumer purchasing power may be constrained.
- The 'waifu' (character-collecting) game genre is successfully migrating from Asian markets to the West, with titles like NIKKE and Azur Lane demonstrating that these mechanics can achieve stable, long-term performance in Western territories.
Two & a Half GamersMay 2024
Two & a Half Gamers47 min
two & a half gamers session #40 - Q4 Live ops tips, Q4 UA Budget optimisations, Admon bidder updates
The mobile gaming industry is currently navigating a complex landscape defined by shifting advertising dynamics and seasonal volatility.
- The Google AdMob bidder has shown significant performance improvements, delivering an average ARPU uplift of 10% to 12% for previously underperforming games and effectively capturing market share from Meta demand on Android.
- During the Q4 holiday season, rising CPIs driven by e-commerce competition make it necessary to narrow UA focus to core audiences and pause underperforming campaigns to maintain profitability, even if it results in lower overall revenue.
- Despite budget cuts in Q4, developers should maintain a 10% to 20% allocation for creative testing to ensure a pipeline of winning assets for rapid scaling in January.
Two & a Half GamersMay 2024
Two & a Half Gamers43 min
two & a half gamers session #38 - Q4 Admon pro tips, Survivor.io clone Heroes vs. Hordes, TikTok SPC
Optimizing mobile game revenue during the Q4 holiday season requires a dual focus on technical infrastructure and tactical creative adjustments.
- Q4, specifically Black Friday and Christmas, represents the peak eCPM season, requiring ad monetization managers to lock down all waterfall placements by November 20th to ensure each placement fills at or near 1% while generating at least 1% of total ad revenue.
- Seasonal store assets like holiday-themed icons can significantly harm organic performance; one case study showed daily downloads dropping from 50,000 to 10,000 after a Christmas icon change, with traffic only recovering after reverting to the original icon in mid-January.
- TikTok's Smart Performance Campaigns (SPC) are currently yielding higher quality users at a cost four times lower than equivalent campaigns on Facebook, making them a priority for UA managers focusing on CPI optimization.
Two & a Half GamersMay 2024
Two & a Half Gamers47 min
two & a half gamers session #35 - Charge Champions in SL, Facebook UA tech checklist, Amplify update
The mobile gaming industry is currently navigating a period of growth deceleration, necessitating a strategic pivot toward diversified monetization models that extend beyond traditional in-app purchases and standard advertising.
- AppLovin is introducing branding demand into its exchange, which typically offers lower eCPMs than performance-based gaming ads but provides a new revenue stream as mobile games scale as a supply pool.
- Implementing 'app open' ads—ads displayed immediately upon launching an app—can yield a 10% uplift in ad revenue when managed with high price floors to protect user retention.
- AppLovin’s 'Vessel' is a new SDK-based marketplace and wallet that allows developers to integrate NFTs into their games, enabling users to buy, sell, trade, or convert in-game assets to cash.
Two & a Half GamersMay 2024
Two & a Half Gamers50 min
two & a half gamers session #31 - survivor.io redemption story, You scaled your game, now what?
Survivor.io serves as a primary case study for modern mobile monetization, demonstrating the efficacy of a hybrid model that blends hyper-casual accessibility with deep, long-term progression.
- Survivor.io achieves over $1 million in daily in-app purchase revenue by utilizing a hybrid monetization model that combines hyper-casual accessibility with deep, long-term progression systems.
- To maximize monetization without sacrificing retention, developers should target a 45% to 70% rewarded video viewer rate with four to five impressions per daily active user.
- Long-term player engagement is best sustained by introducing secondary progression layers and new currency tracks, which prevent unsustainable spending gaps caused by simple stat-based scaling.
Two & a Half GamersMay 2024
Two & a Half Gamers56 min
two & a half gamers session #26 - Unpacking Google ads "disaster", ASA Today's new ad, Google ＜3 MAX
Google’s recent implementation of stricter ad guidelines, which limit intrusive full-screen interstitials and specific app-open formats, represents a strategic shift toward rewarded advertising rather than a systemic threat to the hyper-casual gaming sector.
- Google is enforcing stricter ad placement policies, specifically targeting full-screen interstitial ads that appear before app loading screens and those that remain unclosable for 15 seconds, leading to increased app rejections.
- Apple has expanded its search ad inventory by adding two new placements in the Search tab and the Search results page, a move expected to significantly increase Apple's advertising revenue following the implementation of the ATT privacy framework.
- AdMob has historically used its mediation platform to incentivize developers, with reports of the company throttling ad traffic by 90-95% for developers who exceeded a three-placement limit, effectively forcing them toward Google's own mediation tools.
Two & a Half GamersMay 2024
Two & a Half Gamers46 min
two & a half gamers session #24 - 1 year after IDFA Apocalypse. State of the UA, Admon & retargeting
The mobile gaming industry has successfully navigated the initial disruption caused by Apple’s App Tracking Transparency (ATT) framework, moving beyond the narrative of an industry apocalypse toward a more sophisticated, privacy-centric operational model.
- Optimizing pre-prompt messaging and timing is critical for iOS user acquisition; effective implementation can increase opt-in rates from a baseline of 15–20% to as high as 40–54%.
- Retargeting remains a vital performance channel, with sophisticated studios now hiring dedicated specialists and using verifiable incrementality studies—often involving control groups—to justify spend and measure true ROI.
- The industry has shifted toward a more fluid budget allocation strategy between iOS and Android, moving away from the initial post-IDFA panic that caused a mass migration of spend toward Android.
Two & a Half GamersMay 2024
Two & a Half Gamers49 min
two & a half gamers session #23 - How to do a proper game performance audit? UA, Admon & GD
Conducting a comprehensive game performance audit requires a holistic evaluation that integrates team capabilities, production processes, and technical execution.
- A proper game performance audit should be categorized into three pillars: the team's production capabilities, the game's design and monetization strategy, and the technical health of UA and Admon.
- Ad monetization audits must prioritize a 'sandwich' waterfall structure; failing to place competitive networks between price points allows bidders to lower their payouts because they no longer face pressure from higher-bidding alternatives.
- Fill rates below 97% are considered unacceptable; if fill is low, developers should add more ad networks or implement a backfill placement to ensure every ad request is monetized.
Two & a Half GamersMay 2024