Rami Ismail on Why Hits Like BG3 Lead to Fewer Funded Games: "Everything That's Successful Tightens the Noose"

The current video game industry is trapped in a self-defeating cycle where the success of major titles paradoxically restricts future development opportunities. Industry consultant and developer Rami Ismail argues that the market is governed by a funding-centric model that forces developers to compete against increasingly high production standards. When a game achieves massive success, it raises the bar for quality and financial performance, making it harder for publishers to justify funding new projects in that same genre. Consequently, instead of fostering innovation, major hits create a risk-averse environment that discourages investment in smaller or experimental titles.

This systemic pressure forces developers to seek substantial capital to remain competitive, often leading to the integration of monetization strategies like microtransactions to satisfy investor demands for guaranteed returns. The reliance on external funding creates a vicious circle: successful games tighten the financial noose by elevating expectations, while unsuccessful games are used as evidence to avoid similar creative risks in the future. This dynamic contributes to industry-wide consolidation, as companies merge to secure the resources necessary to compete with global tech giants and high-revenue live-service models.

The scope of these challenges spans the entire industry, from independent developers to large-scale AAA studios. Because modern development cycles for indie and AAA games range from two to five years, the full impact of these market pressures is expected to manifest by 2028. The current trajectory suggests that without a fundamental shift in the industry’s economic structure, developers are left with few options beyond attempting to navigate the existing system or facing a potential market collapse. Potential long-term outcomes include a move toward shorter, more focused games or a complete restructuring of how development is funded and valued.