Estimating Steam/Console Sales: Two Hot Methods

This analysis explores methodologies for forecasting Steam and console game sales, providing two distinct spreadsheet models designed to help developers establish financial expectations. The primary thesis is that while perfect prediction is impossible, combining pre-release metrics like Steam wishlists with post-release data such as pricing and sales ratios can yield indicative revenue ballparks. The scope covers the global PC and console markets, specifically focusing on the 2020–2021 period and the transition from launch to long-term tail revenue.

The first methodology, developed by GameDiscoverCo, offers a basic prediction model. It utilizes a game’s launch wishlists and average global price to extrapolate first-week sales and subsequent three-year net revenue. Key data points indicate that first-week sales typically range from 0.03 to 1.0 sales per wishlist. This model assumes a conservative 3x ratio for Year 1 revenue relative to Week 1 sales and provides a high-level estimation for console market share.

The second methodology, provided by narrative publisher Fellow Traveller, offers a more sophisticated month-by-month forecasting template. This model shifts the primary metric to the Month 1 sales-to-wishlist ratio, allowing for variables between 10% and 90%. It incorporates granular details such as launch discounts, regional price weighting, and the specific revenue lifts associated with Steam seasonal sales and spotlight promotions.

Beyond forecasting, the analysis examines 2021 industry trends, noting that Steam release volume increased by approximately 25% year-over-year as of June 2021, with some months exceeding 1,000 new titles. Conversely, Nintendo Switch release volume remained flat at approximately 135 games per month. The findings conclude that transparency in data and the use of post-launch "real-world" baselines are essential for developers to accurately predict the long-term financial tail of their products.