About that EA deal…

What a week for video game news. EA is going private in a mammoth $55 billion deal. Xbox has raised the price of its top game pass tier by 50% and we're going to talk Battlefield 6 versus Call of Duty. Hello and welcome to the Game Business Show. I am joined today by a brilliant analyst, adviser, consultant, author, someone I've known for a long time and I can't believe I've only just invited on to the game business show. Welcome Yast Van Duan. Have I got that right, Ya? Have I got that right?
That's perfect. Thank you for having me.
Uh, what's going on in your world, Y? I mean, I I want to really want to plug your newsletter. I think it's amazing. What's what's what's new for you?
What's new for me is um, you know, of course there's a lot of news. And what that means is I end up, you know, the things that might seem obvious to us as people that look at the games you see all the time, I then spend two, three days of my week explaining to non-gaming folk what it's all about, you know, and it's almost like you have to explain to them what EA does.
Yeah.

So, it's some um you know, some starter level education, but it's good to hear the questions that they have, right? It's the the scrutiny that they bring. I like that. Yeah. So that's new and it's uh you know on the on the personal note like school has started here in Brooklyn. So the kids are finally back at school after a summer of breaking my house. So I'm excited. I'm excited to have some bandwidth.
Cool. It's similar for me. I get like the BBC or CNN or the Chinese news agency will call me up and ask uh for that sort of stuff. And one thing I always try and struggle with is making sure that I I explain it to people that don't even know what a you know what do you mean by a shooter game? that kind of um you have to go down to that level. But I guess because you teach you know people you must you must be able to quite articulate in explaining complicated things.
I try to it's the uh they find me because of that and so then you know it's it's challenging though to explain at 2 a.m. to some news agency in China exactly the differences between all of these games and titles and companies.

But you know it's a it's part of the job. But it's I find that conversation just in general just fascinating. like you know the games industry as I experienced it and you know this too is like there's so few of us in each of these categories that there it becomes an echo chamber immediately right the number of journalists reporters analysts it's never enough nearly relative to its size and so it's runs a risk of everybody sort of agreeing constantly or forgetting to look outside which is you know why I always welcome those perspectives
I so this is perfectly line up what I was going to say about your newsletter um which um you can get is it super yoast your substack I do recommend you can just go on the game business we we push it and promote it is that your you everything time you write something it's uh I feel challenged or informed or inspired by it
thanks
my job is to really talk to people I go around I get I get people's opinions all the time and everyone ends up reaching a sort of consensus on what the industry is and what it's going to do because they're all talking to the same people

and we're all just saying the same things in one big circle and then you'll say something which doesn't contradict things necessarily, but it definitely comes at a completely different angle and I think it's super val. Everyone should read it. That's my that's my advice.
I appreciate it.
Um that's high praise. Thank you.
Well, let's talk let's talk. I'd be interested to hear your views. I mean, I know you've already written about them about the big story of the week. Probably the biggest story of the year. I don't know if I even need to repeat it. Uh EA has signed an agreement with an investor group to become a private company. The investors mounting the takeover include Saudi Arabia's public investment fund PIFF and US-based private equity firm Silver Lake Management and Affinity Partners. Affinity Partners is run by Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. I mean the key takeway Andrew Wilson who is the CEO of EA will continue to be the CEO of EA. I think the deal is expected to close is it end of Q1 financial year 27 end of June. The deal consists of equity investment of around $36 billion and then $20 billion of debt financing

committed by JP Morgan, Chase Bank. Uh there's an awful lot of quotes in the release uh about being committed to the company and investing, but it's usual placeholder meaningless statements that don't really mean anything. We'll reassure nobody. Lots of people have different views on this. Um although there is a lot of negativity around it. What was your your immediate reaction was that it didn't add up.
It didn't add up. And I mean it in a literal sense of the 25% premium on top of the market value of EA based on just sort of a basic analysis of its financials suggests that there is more going on than just like a leverage buyout. Uh you know in simple terms like why would you borrow this much money on this type of asset if you didn't have some ulterior motive. And so the reason it doesn't add up is because it's very much part of a soft power play by Saudi Arabia. Right? It's the same reason they've been investing in sports and buying soccer celebrities to come over and play there. The same reason we had uh a lot of dust last week with American

standup comedians having sort of this rift between them like who went out there to the Riad Comedy Festival and who didn't. And so there is this um large sponsor of entertainment and there they have their own agenda and it's rippling throughout the entertainment ecosystem and now it's hit gaming in a big way.
Yeah, that's why it doesn't quite add up in terms of finances. It's great for shareholders certainly. Uh there was a few things I noted. I I did think obviously because of their success with Scopely which is linked to the the Saudi Arabia investment. EA's mobile business is one that probably one of the bigger opportunities actually within that organization. I know that
EA has been consist been a consistent performer but not not a particularly it does feel like they hit a bit of a ceiling as a company. Um but there's things like mobile I think was an opportunity um for them which I guess that this might help them unlock.
Mhm.
So I was trying to find where the the synergies might be where the uh the opportunities is might be. I guess a lot

of the concerns is this debt and what that's going to mean to uh EA's staff. Uh what it means for certain ones, their franchises. Are they going to have to improve the cash flow in order to um service the debt? Um that seems to be one of the overriding comments certainly in in the in the echo chamber that you that we were you were talking about earlier.
No, 100%. I mean, you know, any any private equity activity is generally followed by layoffs in sort of a blood bath if nothing else, right? It's sort of part of the exercise where you take company X public private or whatever you put it under a new owner and then a bunch of people come in with spreadsheets and machetes and they start cutting it down to size, breaking it into pieces. They look for margins and profits and blah blah blah. and then they either sell off some of the components or they re they they cast it back out. They they create some IPO moment or whatever. That's sort of the general story around this. In this case,

there is some reason to believe that that's not their immediate objective, right? So there is of course the look the simplest answer is probably the correct one. But let's for a moment assume that they are in fact serious about leveraging the largest US-based game publisher as a way to bring attention to their region and to establish themselves as a hub for interactive entertainment. Um you know it's not in their interest to immediately start cutting people out. uh in that sense I suspect that there's going to be some requirement for people to move to Riad or you know some of these places and they're not going to want to do that. Uh so you know there's probably going to be some shuffling of chairs in that regard. Um but it doesn't on paper seem logical for me to immediately start cutting into it. Um, what I expect to put it differently is like the activity that will likely happen is that they're going to separate more prominently uh EA Sports and everything else. It's already the case

of course internally, but they're going to just make that two separate entities where all of the sports components will live their own life in the broader sports ecosystem that they're building. Um, and the shooter games and the Sims and all of those, there's probably going to be a a smaller subsidiary there. And then there's going to be a bucket, like a portfolio of all the stuff that you know and love but haven't played for years, like Command and Conquer or Ultima or SSX. And I'm guessing they're going to sell that off to the highest bidder and they're going to use that to pay down the debt a little bit because that doesn't really serve their strategic soft power like
Yeah, that's the bit that I was the bit that you find that the gaming media is most worried about is boware, right?
Yep. maybe EA Motive and the the the Star Wars games, you know, the Sims and the sports games and the and the shooter games. Oh, yeah, they might even get more investment. You can invest much more in how much they've spent on Battlefield, but we'll come back to

that. But, uh, certainly those those other titles is where perhaps the anxiety is because even, you know, EA's never been the most altruistic of companies. Like, we're not we're not dealing with a business that heavily invested in niche things, but they did it from time to time. and they'd be, "Oh, go on that small team can make a Dead Space remake or go on there and try a Mirror's Edge sequel." There was there were times that they would they would give things, you know, that wouldn't, you know, because they might had a team spare or because, you know, they wanted to develop some talent or whatever it was that the strategy with there was. So, there was always a little bit of it and um yeah, that's you know, that's the stuff that uh
is probably most under threat, but you know, EA's cut that stuff before. They've made some cuts themselves, including to the is it Black Panther game they cut?
Um, which um they did quite recently. So, they do do those sort of things. I guess another part of me is there's just a little bit less visibility on as a result of a another company going private, that's even less visibility on on the game performance that uh as someone who loves to chat this stuff, it's quite
Yes, it's good for data companies.

Yeah. I mean, look, you know, like it's there's there's no there's no losing condition in that, but it's the fact that it will now be private. Yeah, it's true. like will have less visibility like what's really going on like you you won't be able to tell as much because they're not mandated to share. That seems to be the case. Like I remember the the current US administration already suggesting that American companies stop reporting on a quarterly basis anyway. So that seems to be the thing that they want to do regardless. I mean look I I get it like I provide data for a living and I am an analyst so like that doesn't hurt me but it makes my job harder too, right? in that sense. So, so and that the reason companies tend to do that is because they don't want eyes and influence on their operations. And so you could be cynical about it and say like what what are they doing that they don't want us to see or and and I did this analysis a few weeks ago like if you look at the long-term differences between privately held and publicly traded firms, privately held companies are actually more innovative because

they can think of longer timelines than
Oh yeah. publicly traded ones which have to show something that goes up and to the right every three months right every quarter you got to show progress or increase or improvement of some kind otherwise your investors and they will leave you by the dozens like this we saw this with the CD project like they abandoned that stock when that didn't turn out to meet expectations so in many ways like being publicly traded is somewhat of a curse too which is not to say that now suddenly EA is going to be this benevolent altruistic company as you say, right? It's
from the people that brought you pink Darth Vader comes
comes now, you know, free money. No. So, it's going to end up being a um somewhat of a cultural shift, but they might have a little bit more breathing room to pursue and invest in innovative things that we haven't seen from them before. But that's probably a small consolation to what most players will think is, you know, a bad decision. I've never really seen EA, particularly in recent years,

as being the most innovative company. They're often the most reactive. They they all go they'll go, "Everyone's playing Destiny, Boware, make me one of those." And uh or everyone's I remember I think went to see that once they show me two MOBAs they're working on. I'm not sure either of them came out in the end. Like is they they because Mobas were a thing and there was just an element of this is the this is the genre everyone's pushing into, we'll push into the we'll push into it as well. We'll spend as much money as we can to try and succeed in that market. Most the time it doesn't work. Yeah. I So be interested if that is an innovative if they start um down that route instead.
Well, we'll see. I mean, there must be some pent up like creative tension in there somewhere. But yeah, it's the nature of the portfolio, right? They see heavy reliance on sports video games which is all licensed materials which is very strictly regulated by the owners. And you know, you simply can't make a lot of changes to the gameplay of football or golf or whatever any of those games because then they stop being a realistic
counterparts to their physical form. So

in
in those terms like by nature of its portfolio, EA has always had like the minimal amount of room to innovate and so maybe it never really developed that. you know, they did a good job at the Frostbite and a bunch of their technical innovations once once they divested from FIFA.
They really took it serious then and I think that that paid off. I think including all female soccer teams
and you know the female soccer leagues, I thought that was innovative and new for them. I thought that you know the way that they allow you to experience the play and the replay and sort of like the highlight moments in the game. So they have a way of pushing that forward. It's just, you know, will that be better in a privately held circumstance? Will it be a catalyst for it? You know, we'll have to see. I think they're going to be very distracted in becoming first and foremost integrated with the larger Saudi Arabian strategy.
Also, there's a lot there's a lot of concerns, anxieties amongst some of the members of teams there. It's not just because of the potential for layoffs.

there is of they're not entirely happy that their management has jumped into bed with with which is always going to be the case. I mean Ubisoft with Eve Gillimo quietly going over there and doing some talks and things there's an element of they're aware of the political sensitivities around this but I think the industry needs money. China's and the Chinese companies has had it have had it their way for a while and um this is the latest pot of gold I guess um it's a microcosm of what happens in the world at large right I mean money
decides everything right it's cash rules everything around me all over again and so here we have an industry that's been sort of weak particularly EA has been underperforming to take two Battlefield 6 I'm sure it's going to be amazing also by the grace of Strauss Zeldnic delaying the launch of GTA 6 6 months. So, you know, it gave it the runway that it needed to succeed in the holiday season of 2025. So, you know, you have to wonder it's like um in a moment like

that, a check like that of $55 billion makes a big difference. It but it also sets a different tone, right? games have never really been regarded as this mouthpiece for any kind of political idea, even though of course they're totally cultural entrenched and they have certain practices and beliefs in there. Um, you know, so it's not unfair to raise the question, um, what's going to happen to the gay couples in the Sims?
Yeah.
Under this new ownership, right? Is there going to be is that going to go away? Is they're going to spin it off because it doesn't match their agenda? You know, look, it's their it's their asset. they could do whatever they want, but you could argue like that might not fly.
Yeah, that's sort of the concern. Well, I mean, well, this story is going to run around. We'll be talking about it um all the time and and I don't think we've seen the last of Saudi's investment in the game space by by any stretch. Um our next story, at the time of recording, is only just breaking, which is that Xbox uh has increased the price of Game Pass

Ultimate. It's it's a little bit more complicated than that. It's not just an increase for Game Pass Ultimate. It's a big increase. It's up 50%. It's $299, up from $199. Um, but they're bolstering it in quite a significant way. So, they're including the Ubisoft Plus Classics Collection in the service. They've also adding in Fortnite Crew service, which is the Fortnite subscription offering. The firm also pledges to release more than 75 day one games into Game Pass Ultimate uh every year. There is a slight increase as well for the PC Game Pass and that's going up by more than a third to $16.50, $13.50. And they're also rebranding the other Game Pass tiers, but they're not, well, maybe in some markets, but not in the US, they're not increasing the price of those. So, Game Pass Core is now called Game Pass Essential. Game Pass Standard is Game Pass Premium. Um, they're both going to maintain their prices, but they've got extra stuff in it, including some more games. And, uh, and and Microsoft expanding cloud gaming to all its subscription offerings. I've got some stats here, Yos, but what was your initial reaction to that? I got to

play the analyst here and say I told you so. I um about a year ago I wrote a piece and it's like they are going to and should increase the premium tier for game packs to 30 bucks. Um and that's has everything to do with just the mechanics of like you can't have the lower half of your subscriber base which really only plays some of the games some of the times pay the same amount as the people that just eat it. Right? So the economics are very simply put um if you don't differentiate then the the lower the poor players they subsidize the the the wealthier more affluent the the more intensive players and so that doesn't make any sense but particularly in a game pass setting where they rely on cloud gaming infrastructure and streaming it which according to my math costs something like 42 cents per streaming hour of game time. Um, if you play more than so many hours, what you end up getting is basically, you know, someone who gets a 100 hours a month for the price of like 10, 15, 20 hours. And

so, they don't pay their fair share by offering day and date and exclusive and all these other features to premium players. They're actually covering their own expense and the and the and the and the cheaper versions of the subscription don't subsidize the the the high intensity players. That's sort of the basic mechanics. That's sort of what you see with Netflix, Spotify as well. Um, and so they're just following that example.
I mean, yeah, there's some stats there. The average Game Pass Ultimate subscriber, they would have to have spent $550 just to buy all the games that they play in a year. That's the average. But Game Pass, this is the other statistic which sort of backs up their decision not to raise the price of the other tiers, is that Game Pass subscribers spend the majority of their time playing catalog titles. So there's the other element of the people that do buy the do get game pass als majority of players the majority of players seem to be preferred to play the catalog is um is what they do obviously this is the second price increase in a

year uh sorry just over if you go from August 24 game pass seen a price increase by nearly um 77%. Mhm.
But look, Sakana's got some data here. So Sakana sent me a some statistics which I thought was uh quite fascinating. When it comes to people who unsubscribe from Game Pass, they got this Q3 survey. So when people come unsubscribed from Game Pass, not just Game Pass, but uh Nintendo Switch Online and PS+, they said it's because the price doesn't um though they like the service, the price was just too much. And there's some other people that have said um the price is too much. The second second reason why the price is too much for what they get out of it. So, there will clearly be some lost customers as a result of it, but um I suspect the majority of people because what is even is $10 a month. That's that's barely two coffees from Starbucks in in 2025, right? I mean, it seems like a lot over the course of the year. I guess it's almost the price of two AAA games. But if you're somebody that is super engaged in this in this ecosystem and you've now got Ubisoft games in there as well and you've got stuff for you know you've always had stuff for Riot, you've got stuff for Call of Duty,

now you got stuff for Fortnite and you've got even more streaming components, even more rewards. It I mean it is the literally lives up to its name. It is the ultimate um it is it is the ultimate subscription service in many ways.
Is that the one you would you would take? Uh well I what I find interesting about subscription services is it's different to different people and this is the reason why I think chucking more stuff in doesn't necessarily change stuff. If you're never interested in Ubisoft games the inclusion of Ubisoft isn't going to make this more valuable to you. Um for me the one I actually use the most is the Nintendo Switch online service which I think on paper is probably the weakest of them all. But the reason why I use it is because I'm 40 and I grew up with Nintendo games. So I uh I like playing old Nintendo games. I do it a lot and therefore I get the most value out of that service because it appeals to that element of me. Um game pass is probably the one I use the least for that reason because I'm a bit retroy.
Mhm.
But I I can see the value of it. I mean actually I was trying to think about this from um over the course of of this year just gone. Actually Game Pass this year is like proper good. Right. So

because Call of Duty Black Ops 6 came out, we've had India. I I was trying to sit there and think would I have bought It's about five games the cost of Game Pass Ultimate now. Would I have bought five games from Game Pass over the last year? And I started to think about it and I actually thought actually this year might have done that because I would have got Indiana Jones and I okay maybe I wouldn't have got Call of Duty but I definitely would have played it. I was interested in and I gave that a go and then you start getting into Doom the Dark Ages and Clare Obscure and Oblivion and for me I love Tony Hawk's Pros Skater 3 and four. I I'm up to six or seven games now that's come out this year, new ones, brand new ones that have been released over the last year and they're promising to do even more
going forward. Um, I actually think it's a po it's a it's a good service. And I think if you are if you're somebody who is engaged in that ecosystem, it it I I suspect nobody likes a price rice, but I think it I think it's more digestible, more palatable than I than perhaps it looks.
Yes. I think it's um it's a fair value for money. Like the problem and you

know, I I'll get right to it, which is as a consumer just awesome. Thanks. You know, I'll pay for this. It's all, you know, I'll pay for all of them. I have the PlayStation one, the Nintendo one because they're all like worth their salt. The problem is not the demand side, it's the supply side. Like how do you build a business as a publisher in a sort of fixed fee ecosystem like this? Like the same thing happened to musicians. Um, you know, streaming became a marketing channel more than anything else because there's no money in streaming for musicians unless you're Taylor Swift or Drake or something like that, right? Unless you have billions of plays. So in other words, like you know, what does that mean long term for the supply side? Like can you be a sustainable double A indie in that ecosystem? And you know, currently these subscription providers are all kind of competing with each other, so they'll probably be fine for a while. But it's a very tough thing for game makers, but the players of games, this is this the best time ever. They get all this very cheap subsidized

content. even 30 bucks a month like you know annually of course that's a substantial amount of money but you get premium everything like you know it's what does Disney cost and what does Netflix cost like all of those offer their own unique catalog of of IP and shows and things to consume in some ways and they are inching towards 2030 bucks my consideration then is not so much to look at the top end for the super users but the bottom like you know you remember that Xbox had this bunch of documents leaked during the uh regulatory inter in investigation around the Activision Blizzard uh purchase and that also revealed at the time and it's probably updated now but that they were eyeing 100 million game pass subscribers. Now let's say that that's still true in some capacity. We don't know they don't tell us any numbers but let's say that they are about halfway that point. Now to get the other 50 million in the pool they're going to have to offer something that's cheaper,

right? And so then I'm thinking $10 a month or maybe $6 a month on mobile that would make sense to do that. So it's that's what's going to drive the audience. Um and so they have to first build all this perceived value at the top and then you can have the the cheaper $6 a month maybe adfunded version of it on the lower end and then you can also have a game pass subscription.
Yeah, that's very secret. The thing that that jumped out to me was the fact that the um the lower tiers aren't increasing in price, but they are increasing in what's in them.
They've got the streaming in there now. They've got more games in there to try and make it more appealing. And and Sakana's data, I mean, um Sakana report, okay, this is spending. It's not it's not necessarily the number of subscribers, but they've seen game subscriptions between January uh 2025, end of January to July, end of July 2025, 19% increase in US um subs uh US spending on gear game subscriptions. Now, that doesn't just include Game Pass and Nintendo Switch Online, which also saw a boost would have seen a boost

around Switch too, but it also includes PC MMO stuff and and all those other things. It doesn't include mobile. Um, so you know, we have and and there's been I think between I think if I'm correctly March all the way to July, that was five consecutive months of growth in in terms of in terms of getting subscribers. So, you're starting to see a bit and and Matt Sakana, he he speculates that it's the cost, you know, the cost of games has got to a point where this is now seen as a viable um way for people to pay for their games. I I don't know. I I'm not I'm not I'm not convinced. I I can see the argument. Um, and so there's an element, I think, from a consumer point of view of um um of game subscription services become looking more appealing from a from purely in terms of their own wallets and increasing the lower end but not increasing the row end tiers but not increasing the price
I guess might might play into that potential.
Oh, that's that's that's consistent with the sort of economic cycle we're in,

right? So, what's selling us from a content perspective? I mean, you said so just now, which is I like the Nintendo inventory. You know, Nintendo launches new IPs sometimes, but mostly it's the Marios and the Zeldas and stuff, and so it's very consistent IP, which is exactly what you'd expect during a weaker market. People cling to what they know because they know it has value. We're in late in the current hardware cycle. So, console makers think and they're sort of geared to think this way where you have a risk averse consumer base that doesn't really want to spend a lot of money. And so they offer them like all of the good stuff for a reasonable price exactly like you're describing. Um and so after several years of looking towards innovating around the cool content that we could build now all these companies are trying to figure out how to innovate around distribution and subscriptions are a clear example of distribution innovation where we can just reach more people at at differentiated price points and do it in such a way that they actually want to be involved and like are excited about it. Right? Um, this probably wouldn't

have happened 5 years ago.
No. No. And whenever I talk about game subscriptions, um, I get a bit of, um, I get some people that will say to me that they're worried about the impact this is going to have on the market and, um, you know, what it means for sales of premium games generally. And, you know, this this these changes aren't necessary going to alleviate any of those concerns. But I I think we've got to point with consumer spending under threat generally and discoverability being such a major issue. this clearly helps with that kind of situation and
100%. And so although there there obviously there will be downsides. I mean you've talked about some of the um the impact on on profitability it's had for well margins you know the fact that you know somebody um I watched the rest is entertainment podcast in the UK that um um they named a really famous pop musician that would earn from her music all she gets is minimum wage from Spotify. like proper superstar Allison Moy or whatever and um it's um and um

earns minimum wage in Spotify. That's that situation. So I guess that's where
the concerns come in and that's when more revenue streams are needed, but it's a different conversation than this one. I suspect um we could be away for that one.
Um
I'm excited to see like Xbox trying to like play with the model. I I do I do like that they push this forwards and that they're sort of relentless. It's like I know that which is not to defend him, but like a lot of people look at it with some skepticism like well where is it? You know, we we had this big deal. I mean, in the wake of the EA privatization, you had the Activision Blizzard purchase. Okay, we spend all this money. Where is the thing? And they're they're they're working on it. They're they keep rolling out. They keep sort of being relentless about pushing this. So, you know, there's still a a pulse to all of this. They haven't abandoned it. So, I'm optimistic about that part, but it's tough. like it's a big boat trying to turn its course, right? It's uh
we'll see what comes of it.
I'm curious to see.
Well, uh because we had such I would

normally I rattle through a bunch of stories because there have been so many big big ones this week. I've I've um I focus on those two, but we do there is another what the topic I was going to bring to the table. This is this was planned before the EA news broke. Um but um I was going to talk about Battlefield 6 versus Call of Duty. And interestingly, Yost, I didn't know that you'd already written about this. I read it uh just before this call. So, this is a topic that you are you're also familiar with. So, you're a great um um uh topic about this because it is it you can oversell it a little bit because I think I think it's worth
again I've got a lot of data. So, I'm not going to read it all out at once because otherwise it would just be a string of me reading out numbers. Time
data to me. I like it.
Um but um but if you talk about battlefield, so this is this is US data. It's not too dissimilar in the UK actually. Um, Battlefield is the 16th biggest franchise in US uh, according to Sakana. That's his lifetime revenue game dollar sales as they call it. So, it's just behind Nika Speed, but it's ahead of the Sims. So, that's number 16

for Battlefield. Number one is Call of Duty. And Battlefield 1 is the franchise's best performing game in terms of dollar sales. That's slightly ahead of Battlefield 4. Battlefield 1, this came out in 2016. It was actually the number two overall game of the year in terms of game revenue. Number one, Call of Duty. Um, and also Call of Duty Infinite Warfare, one of the one of the lesser Call of Duties. Um, um, 2018 2018's uh, uh, Battlefield 5 didn't do very well at all. It was number 16 for the year. 2021's Battlefield 2042 was number five, so it did better. But number one, Call of Duty. Number three, Call of Duty. There was two Call of Duty games ahead of it. Um uh in 2024, Call of Duty is still finished as the US bestselling franchise in terms of uh uh dollar sales. That's the 16th consecutive year Call of Duty has been number one in the US. Um now there has been years where Grand Theft Auto 5, Red Dead Redemption 2, and Hogwarts Legacy have finished as the best individual selling game. But in terms of a

franchise that includes the previous year's titles and that kind of stuff, Call of Duty has been number one every year for 16 years on the trot. Um, so yes, Call of Duty versus Battlefield always a very very exciting story, but if you look through it historically, um, it's just it's there's only ever been one winner. It's been a very one-sided um, one-sided battle. And one thing I'd like to point out about Call of Duty and versus Battlefield, and it's always a fun thing to talk about, and there are some reasons to believe Battlefield might get quite a bit closer this year, or maybe even win, who knows, um, is that, um, Battlefield and Call of Duty are not actually the same game. I don't know if you're a player, Yoast. Um, but they uh they they obviously they're obviously war shooters. They have similar um settings and that kind of stuff, but Battlefield is a large scale game. It has vehicles and it's a big focus on teamwork with giant maps and that kind of stuff. Call of Duty is faster paced, close quarters combat, smaller, tighter maps. So, the point being is that if you are somebody who likes Call of Duty, you

won't necessarily like Battlefield. It's not like this experience is the same. It's not like it's transferable. It's not like going from PlayStation to Xbox or or or doing they are they are different experiences albeit ones that um are similar in setting. Um are are you a player? Most of you are you a big it's my job so I play I but I've also conceded I play these for fun.
Mhm.
Where where so I I just off top like whenever these things come out of course I go through the campaigns I try out the multiplayer components um and then they either fade to the background or they don't. Um, I like the Call of Duty franchise, of course. Uh, you know, I at all of them in a multiplayer setting. Like, I'm not afraid to admit this. Um, and of those, I like the large scale battles with the breakable environments a little better because I can lean a little bit more on my team on my team to like not die all the time. So, it's um, so yes, I play them, but the military shooters to me, they have a

limit. There's sort of a ceiling to it just in general.
All right. Okay.
The um from a franchise perspective, you know, I could make an argument that they're not the same game at all, like you say, like it's a you know, the gameplay mechanics are so different that it's it's almost comparing football to soccer, you know, or football to American football to say it properly. And it's a you know, they they look the same. They involve a bunch of grown men in shorts chasing a ball, but they're not played the same way at all. Um, and so perhaps there is the ven diagram of overlap from the consumer base is very different than you might think, but it's a it's a much more social thing perhaps in that sense. Um, it's much less about um the prestige. So Call of Duty is really big on like the the the recognition and the the skins and so on. They are the ones that bring, you know, Nicki Minaj into the fold for whatever reason. And it's a uh it's a very it's a very different mindset, you know. I was like that would be what the Battlefield's trying to do. I one of the

I think the connection there's a connect one of my this isn't really I've got some more data and I'll come back to it in a second but one of my favorite stories in the games industry is the story of Call of Duty and EA and Medal of Honor and I I might have told it on the show before but I've definitely written about it before and I don't know I don't know how familiar you are with it Yoast but um um so this one of the key things one of the key people who are leading this battlefield resurgence it's huge investment EA's made the person sort of driving it is Vince Zampella Mhm.
And Vince Ampella um goes all the way back throughout the whole arc of this this this big long story that goes that that goes back you know 25 years plus. So he worked he was part of 2015 Inc. along with Jason West and a bunch of other people making Medal of Honor Allied Assault which was um excellent. It was an excellent game. Um EA had this idea that actually they wanted to put all their Medal of Honor developers um and in a big new studio in LA and invited the 2015 Inc. developers to come

and and work out of EALA and become part of that organization. They didn't really want to do that. They didn't want to break up as a team. They didn't want they going to LA was fun, but but sort of um being being part of um being part of this bigger team wasn't that interesting to them. And EA did a bit of its old classic EA bad behavior of the '9s where they just, you know, they held off some of those royalties and and and canceled that DLC or expansion or whatever it was they were working on. Put 2015 Inc. in a very very difficult position to the point where they were basically about to have to join EA, sign with EA and become part of EA. And just as that was about to happen, I think the guy who told me the story, a guy called Drew who was there at the time said about a week before they got a knock on the door, obviously metaphorically speaking by Bobby Kotic and that is the that is how Infinity Ward was formed. So that's how Call of Duty Call of Duty was originally called Moh Killer, Medal of Honor Killer um uh designed to designed to take down and so and what they did is

they hired the developers of the best Medal of Honor game to make Call of Duty and Call of Duty was created. Now obviously Zanella and Weston fell out with Activision Blizzard around the development of Call of Duty Modern Warfare 3 and then went ended up back at EA, different EA now, different people. Um they worked on Titanfall. Um which was my favorite story about Titanfall. This is a bit of a side story to that overall arc is I wanted to find out why Titanfall 2. Do you remember Titanfall 2 came out and I need to remember the exact in between Call of Duty and Battlefield? like they probably sandwiched it in between. And there was a load of conspiracy theories online that it was EA trying to hurt Respawn, all this kind of stuff,
but no, it was Respawn's decision. And when I asked uh Respawn Off the Record over a drink, um why why that happened and they just went hubris. They believe they believed they had the better game. And you know what? They did. Um but obviously you were you were between two two juggernauts there. and um and in the end title 14 found an

audience over time but um but anyway that's sort of a side point their point being these people are supremely confident in what they're doing they they've delivered hits and now here we are
um that Vanella is back at EA making a
making Battlefield um um and I don't putting it all in one person he's not the creative director he's not the person actually building the game but there is a um there is a there's a story line here that I find quite entertaining Um um I'm not sure what my point was with that, but wasn't I wasn't planning to tell that story on the
It's like a windowed Canterbury tale story. I like it. I think it's there's a lot to say for the fact that, you know, um some of these creatives, they actually successfully managed to reinvent themselves and these genres over and over and some don't. I think one of the you know things that you know I always go like franchises of course like Sana would express it in like dollars spent but like these like just lasting this long like just the just the

brand recognition of like the fact that we all have this touchstone of like one of those titles one of those franchises and we know exactly what we're thinking about
and we can all agree in the same way that we when we talk about Mario games or Zelda games right and so so so that longevity is that is so incredible to accomplish as the Americans would say. And so the fact that but that that but that requires is people to constantly push the boundaries in their own sort of you know in their part of the kitchen or whatever that is. Um, and that's why I think you see a lot of these half-hearted attempts at games coming out. Like I think, you know, the teams behind XFind and Concord are very sincere and creative, but you know, there's no there's the only legacy that they leave is that they came and went, which is, you know, that tells you how hard it is. Like even people at that level, you know, like these games are on paper totally fine, but they just don't resonate the way that the the Battlefields and the Call of Duties. You need to coax people away and you need to

keep giving people stuff and it requires such a level of investment. But let's talk about it. I've got some other numbers. Right. So I as so I tried to see how well Battlefield 6 is doing and it's obviously here's some socare estimates that 22 million people were in the beta for Battlefield 6. New's data is slightly higher. It tends to be that tends to be the case. But um they they're at 25 million. Um Newi did some nice comparisons actually. Battlefield 6 and Battlefield 2042 between those two games. So the peak daily active user for Battlefield 6 was 10.4 million for the beta whereas uh Battlefield 2042's beta was 5.1 million. Again that's new data. Um they again the Battlefield 242 beta was shorter than the Battlefield 6 beta by about about half actually. Um but the 2042 beta was 5.7 million total players. Well Battlefield 6 24.7 million. That's according to Nuzu. Ampair did some interesting different analysis. They they estimate 1.7 million Steam pre-orders for Battlefield 6. They think it's going to do 5 million in its first week. That's their estimate. Um they

also point out the Steam user base is 25% bigger today than it was when Battlefield 2042 launched. Um but um it but they said they did a share of Call of Duty players in July 2025 that also played Battlefield 6. So the people of Call of Duty and who played both in July, but this is the Battlefield 6 beta and didn't go back to Call of Duty in August. So 29% of Call of Duty players who also played Battlefield 6 didn't go back to Call of Duty in August. 24% of PlayStation, 48% on Steam. So if there's disruption to come, they think uh that disruption well is going to come across all three platforms, but it will but but Steam in particular will have more than the rest. Um, video game insights, uh, they, you know, Call of Duty maintains a strong lead in terms of followers on Steam. Um, but, uh, that's because of Call of Duty H. One of the confusing thing about Steam data, by the way, is Call of Duty has a launch of Call of Duty HQ,
and Call of Duty HQ includes all of Call of Duty games. And so, it's not an it's not really an accurate comparison. So,

Call of Duty HQ has a followers around 640 to 650,000, but the line is flat. They've not seen much growth on that. Whereas Battlefield 6, this is Video Game Insights, um have started from zero and they're now surpassing 200,000 followers. Um uh so, you know, they're still far behind Call of Duty, but the sole Battlefield 6 curve is very sharp and going upwards and it's gaining momentum. Um wish list data, Call of Duty sits relatively flat at about 700,000 data, whereas Battlefield 6 is on 2 million wish lists by late September actually, and this is multiple sources, but Video Game Insight is the one that shared this with me, 2.4 million wish lists for Battlefield 6. Obviously, it doesn't mean doesn't necessarily mean anything. It's worth noting that Call of Duty is more like an annual sports title today. So, these sort of numbers don't really tell you much about Call of Duty. They just tell you about Battlefield 6, which is a lot of momentum behind it. Um, uh, so yeah, Battlefield has certainly emerged with a lot of momentum. There's a lot of explosive excitement around it. Um, this is a random small data point. It's not a big one, but um, press Engine data

reveals that there's been 13,088 articles written about Battlefield 6 since it reveal. That's actually 20 more articles from Black Ops 7. Black Ops 7 was actually unveiled um almost a month and a half earlier than Battlefield 6. So, the press are writing more about it. I mean, the press is hardly going to be an indicator whether or not this game is going to do what what's going to perform well and what isn't. But um um it's just more of a a small data point really. But all of that is to say, I think only thing you can conclude from that is there's a lot of momentum for Battlefield. Um Call of Duty is difficult to tell. Um uh but certainly you know the beta's gone down well the hype is very high but you all know this yoast it's really what happens after the launch right that's the uh that's the key
purchase intent is just that it's like you know one day I will go to the gym it's um you know people's excitement is sort of like you know uh commitment without commitment that is that those tend to be useful indicators you know

and I appreciate you sharing some of these numbers it it gives me a sense too of like how other firms express these things, right? Like being on a wish list is this common metric just to kind of argue the point and two years ago that would actually convert into like whatever the number was you would have 6% of people would actually buy the game and a year ago 3% and probably this year one and a half%. So in other words, increasingly wish list numbers um become a weaker indicator for actual
sales or projected sales. And so the same goes with everything else. And so the you know the amount of uh articles being written is a good one. I like that one very much. Uh it suggests that there's gatekeepers, smart people that watch the games industry and they help us vet these things. From a business perspective, that layer of voices has been hollowed out tremendously over the last couple years, right? There's a lot of layoffs in the games press.
Yeah.
And so, you know what this all comes down to? So, while this is very

promising, I agree with you with the observation that there's a lot of momentum for Battlefield. Uh it's probably because of the cyclical nature of Call of Duty um that we now have this like much more sort of buildup uh release coming up.
It has to prove itself. of the beta was promising. Okay, great. It hopefully can regain its magic. It also seems a little bit more memeable with all the sort of like, you know, flying tanks and all the nonsense that you see that that's that that suits things like Tik Tok and YouTube much better. And so all this to say is like, you know, marketing becomes a key component in all of this, right? Like what can they do differently than Call of Duty does? And I think that's where they have the advantage.
Yeah. And there's a few things Call of Duty is in game path as well. So I think subscription has an impact upon
followers. I don't have to choose. I already have that one.
Yeah. Um and there's um uh Yeah. And the and the other and the other um uh component is um uh

one of the other one of the things about Battlefield is that it it's it's I'm very mindful of what happened with Xifi. like that define started off very very strongly as well and loads of people from Call of Duty went and gave that a go and there's no reason for they wouldn't give it Battlefield 6 a go. It comes out a whole month and a bit before Call of Duty launches. There's a nice big gap there. It's not like in the same twoe period of anything but you know if Battlefield doesn't if there isn't enough stuff in Battlefield if it doesn't um entice people for you know if there's or if you know things don't work so well or whatever you
Yeah. they've got this they've got this window to really grab an audience and keep them there and entertain them and sustain them and and that could be a problem for Call of Duty, but equally they have a nice window in which to lose all that audience and um and and and we can talk about the it's going to be a big launch. I think I I can't see it not being a big launch um but um whether or not it um uh it will last, I think that's that's the hardest thing in life actually. I think it's harder. I think

you know we've seen we know it's hard. we saw with Concord is hard as a live service game to find an audience. Um I think that's what six will do that I don't think that's that's not the problem it will face. I think the hardest thing to do as what Xifi discovered and so many other games have discovered is keeping hold of it because they because even if you do even if they do entice
huge amounts of Call of Duty players to go across Call of Duty is where they've spent years and years of their time. It's where their audience is where their community is. I know everyone says this every time um but that you know that's their home game and trying to keep them away from that is is going to be a difficult thing. Um but sometimes I think Call of Duty players do want something different. I remember uh Sham Shani who was on the show earlier in the year said something like 6 million of Hell Divers 2 players came from Call of Duty and that was like that was not what they were aiming for at all. They actually got a bit caught up in trying to satisfy Call of Duty players in a game that was not made for Call of Duty players. And I think they they sort of lost their way for a few months there as a result of that. You know, the way I read what you're saying, the way I hear it is um as the incumbent like a Call of

Duty as the number one as you listed like they can only let loose. They can only secede market share during these moments. The question is like how long and how sustainable is that? Like what you see particularly in these network based games is that people will find the new release of XYZ come out and you know I we call them tourists. They just kind of wander off for two weeks and go play the new big release. So Ghost of Yo comes out great. I'm going to play that for a couple weeks and then I finish the story and then I'm going to go back to my multiplayer game with my friends that I play every night from 8 to 10 at night whatever. And so that that is the that is the evergreen title that I join but occasionally I take breaks from it. So then the mechanic very simply becomes can I convince people to surrender their existing game whether that's Call of Duty or Fortnite or whatever and come join this other one and start a family here instead right relocate and that's a really tough thing to do. I think that's why
um games have a very short window. Uh

the risk profile particularly on freeto play but just multiplayer games is incredibly difficult nowadays. like Xdefine is a perfect example of you had 225,000 concurrent users. This is one of the breakout successes for Ubisoft and you know it was it wasn't great. It just didn't really deliver and they lost it and they never got it back and so you only have that moment. So the odds are against you in that sense but it's it's likely that people will kind of wander off away from Call of Duty in favor of something new, something that's a little bit of a different thing. And that is a real that's a material threat to Call of Duty, I would say.
Good. I mean, I do like seeing two games battling it out. They're both going to be fine.
Oh, yeah.
And, you know, a bit of competition can generate a lot more excitement around a genre, can can spark some innovation. Um, I'm not saying that, you know, people were being lazy in the first place, but there's something about having a rival that just, you know, adds a little bit
keeps everybody honest, you know, like it's a like you mean the thing is is

like the the unspoken part of like creative effort is that of course we're all trying to make the best games like and you see this with Silk Song, you know, in the last couple weeks like you had these amazing things that come out. Um, but in my experience, creative people are hugely competitive on the same level as athletes, right? And so I'm all for it. I think it's wonderful that there is different versions. I think, you know, the shooter genre is such a competitive category overall. It's, you know, it's one of the red-hot components always and to be the number one in there or to participate in a meaningful way. Like what an incredible accomplishment. So I like it. I think it's very exciting. The um you know, I look forward to Battlefield 6. I am curious what Call of Duty 7 will do and how that's going to play out this holiday season. But you know, as a consumer, you can't really lose. That's That's the upside.
That's a good thing.
Yoast, I've taken up all your time. We're out of time. Um Um Thank you so much for joining us. I love having you on and I would love to have you back. I I genuinely can't believe it's taken me this long to invite you on.

Save the best for last.
Episode 58, I think this is.
I appreciate it, Chris.
Everyone at home, that's it for today's episode of the Game Business Show. Uh we'll be back next week with more news, analysis, and interviews, including our big delay show. Uh the big delayed show celebrating 30 years of PlayStation in Europe. It was meant to go live on Tuesday, but it's a bit of a monster. So bear with us. We need a little bit longer to get it right. We've also launched our paid subscription tier service uh this week as well, which includes on a Monday you'll get a micro version of the game business show where we go through the biggest news stories of the last week in a sort of condensed concise way. We also sent out a newsletter as well if you're not somebody who likes to listen or watch if you want to just get that in the newsletter form. We that comes out on a Monday. And there'll be some other there's some other subscription bonuses. In fact, fact, for the 30-year PlayStation EU um video, there is an extended extended stuff for you to be able to dive into and enjoy. Until next time, thank you all for uh uh tuning in and uh we'll see you again soon.