2020 Predictions: How to Get That RPG Loot

RPGs generated nearly $3Bn in Western in-app purchase revenue through 2019, making them the third-largest mobile genre behind Strategy ($5.4Bn) and Puzzle ($4.5Bn). The genre grew 18% year over year, driven by new launches reaching the top of their sub-genres within months without cannibalizing established titles. Even so, RPG's share of mid-core revenue fell from 40% in 2017 and 39% in 2018 to 30% in 2019, because mid-core overall grew faster at 25%. The analysis relies on App Annie estimates, framed as trend indicators rather than precise figures, and divides the genre into seven sub-genres, most dominated by one or two titles.

Success factors are examined through contrasting cases. RAID Shadow Legends (expensive 3D) and Hero Wars (cheap 2D) both reached roughly $16M a month, showing that production values are not decisive. Three principles apply regardless of approach: prioritize metagame depth over core gameplay innovation, excel at live operations, and keep content production efficient. Licensed IP is a double-edged sword. Marvel Strike Force topped $150M in its first year, while Looney Tunes World of Mayhem earns about 80% less revenue per install and has declined since launch. Failures typically combine a kiddish IP, a novel battle mechanic, and a shallow metagame.

The 2020 predictions are specific. Idle RPGs, led by AFK Arena, Idle Heroes, and Ulala, will drive genre growth, while Team RPGs grow moderately. GLU's Disney Sorcerer's Arena is forecast at $30M–$50M, below target, and no new IP-based Team or Idle RPG will break into the top. Puzzle RPGs will grow slowly; Empires & Puzzles, which reaches $25M+ monthly, will dip as Zynga's Combat & Puzzle reaches $5M–$7M a month, and LEGENDARY will keep declining, with N3TWORK a possible acquisition target. Diablo Immortal is expected to launch at roughly $50M a year in the West, with upside tied to South Korea. Marvel Realm of Champions is projected to hit $200M annually, pulling Marvel Contest of Champions down from $165M to about $60M.

The author also reviews how last year's predictions fared, noting hits on Team RPG growth and Puzzle RPG slowdown, and a miss on Diablo, which had not yet launched. The overall conclusion is that the RPG market is mature, requiring heavy investment, strong live operations, and depth, with multiple viable routes to the top.