Tales From Discoverabilityland: February 2020

This February 2020 analysis examines the evolving landscape of video game discoverability, focusing primarily on the Steam platform. The central thesis posits that while platform-level discoverability tools are improving, the primary challenge for developers has shifted from overcoming gatekeepers to addressing a saturated market where consumer interest is the ultimate arbiter of success.

Key data points highlight a stark decline in indie game revenue on Steam between 2013 and 2019. While the median indie game earned approximately $110,000 in 2013, that figure dropped to $1,400 by 2019, with the top 25% of titles earning only $12,000. To achieve significant commercial success, a title must now rank within the top 5% of releases, which generated approximately $413,000. Despite these figures, the total number of games on Steam reached 30,000, suggesting that while the number of "hits" has increased in absolute terms, the barrier to entry and the competition for visibility have intensified significantly.

The analysis also evaluates specific discoverability strategies, such as the efficacy of pre-launch demos and machine learning-based recommendation engines. Evidence suggests that offering a free demo on a game’s main page does not provide a clear, statistically significant advantage and may potentially reduce wishlist conversions. Furthermore, the report notes that while Steam’s "Play Next" feature—which uses machine learning to suggest unplayed games from a user's existing library—represents a positive step in platform-led discoverability, developers must increasingly rely on direct engagement with their player base through community channels to ensure visibility in a crowded marketplace.