Square Enix Next: That Excitement Once Again

Square Enix’s recent performance review exposes a persistent decline in revenue growth and profitability over the past three years, with operating income falling 32 % and ROE dropping 61 %. The downturn is driven primarily by weak margins in both high‑definition (HD) and small‑dungeon (SD) game segments, excessive portfolio fragmentation, sub‑optimal product design and promotion, and escalating development costs. While the MMO licensing arm remains the sole growth driver (+11 %), overall gaming revenue has slipped, with HD and SD titles declining 4 % and 5 % respectively. Operating margins for these segments hover around 35–40 %, noticeably higher than the industry average of 28 % but still lagging behind competitors, indicating inefficiencies that are not being adequately addressed.

The company’s medium‑term “Reboots” plan offers only high‑level directions without concrete key performance indicators or quantitative targets. Critical gaps include a lack of clear business‑portfolio strategy, insufficient disclosure on non‑core business rationales, and no defined mechanisms for monitoring progress or maximizing shareholder value. Capital allocation disclosures are similarly weak: cost‑of‑capital calculations, ROE and ROIC targets, and hurdle rates are absent, while share‑buyback authorization remains unused despite a sharp price decline. SG&A costs exceed peer norms by 5–6 ppt, driven largely by an oversized sales force, further eroding profit margins.

Geographically, SD game revenue is almost entirely domestic; the Japanese market has contracted 2 % annually since 2020, and overseas growth remains only 3 %. The company’s global SD strategy is inert, with a 7 % overseas expansion rate falling short of projected growth and flagship titles such as FFVII Ever Crisis deriving 70 % of revenue from Japan. Non‑core Amusement and Publishing businesses are undervalued, with a significant conglomerate discount relative to peers and declining sales and margins. Limited cross‑synergy between game and publishing arms further hampers value creation.

In summary, Square Enix faces a multifaceted challenge: declining core game performance, weak strategic direction and KPI setting, high SG&A costs, and an underperforming non‑core portfolio. Addressing these issues through tighter cost control, clearer performance metrics, aggressive overseas expansion, and potential portfolio optimization is essential to restore corporate value and achieve sustainable growth.