CD Projekt Valuation and Sales Forecast

Key insights

6 takeaways

01
Analysts at DM BOŚ projected that the upcoming 'Songs of the Past' expansion for The Witcher 3 will generate approximately $187.9 million (700 million PLN) in revenue during its first 12 months.
02
The 'Songs of the Past' expansion is expected to sell 11.4 million copies in its first year, with a projected release by the end of Q1 2027.
03
Following the problematic launch of Cyberpunk 2077 in 2021, DM BOŚ downgraded CD Projekt's share valuation from $117 to $58.
04
Post-Cyberpunk 2077, analysts lowered their 2020–2024 sales forecast for CD Projekt by 31%, reducing the expected unit sales from 71.1 million to 49 million.
05
CD Projekt's net profit was estimated to drop from approximately $300 million in 2020 to $158 million in 2021, with a recovery to $280 million projected for 2022.
06
DM BOŚ attributed the 2021 valuation decline to failures including premature release date announcements, communication issues during remote work, and significant performance disparities between PC and older console hardware.

Summary

Financial analysis from DM BOŚ provides a longitudinal perspective on the market performance and valuation of the Polish game developer CD Projekt. The assessments track the company’s volatility, contrasting the significant reputational and financial downturn following the 2020 launch of Cyberpunk 2077 with later projections regarding the expansion of its established intellectual property.

In March 2021, following the problematic release of Cyberpunk 2077, analysts downgraded CD Projekt’s share valuation from $117 to $58. This period was characterized by a 31% reduction in projected game sales for the 2020–2024 window, dropping from 71.1 million to 49 million units. Analysts attributed these challenges to premature release scheduling, technical failures, and internal communication issues. Despite these setbacks, the firm maintained a long-term outlook, noting that the company’s portfolio of two major franchises provided a foundation for recovery, with net profit forecasts fluctuating from $300 million in 2020 to an estimated $158 million in 2021, before a projected rebound to $280 million in 2022.

By August 2026, the outlook shifted toward the anticipated release of the Songs of the Past expansion for The Witcher 3. Projections indicate that this content could generate approximately $187.9 million in revenue during its first 12 months, with estimated sales reaching 11.4 million copies. Analysts expect a release by the end of the first quarter of 2027. These findings highlight a transition from crisis management to a reliance on established, high-performing franchises to drive revenue growth and stabilize the company’s market position. The methodology relies on financial modeling and market performance data to forecast the commercial viability of upcoming content releases.