GTA VI Might Come out in FY 2024-2025 as Take-Two Projects Significant Increase in Revenue

Key insights

6 takeaways

01
Take-Two Interactive projects a significant revenue increase, with net bookings rising from $3.9 billion in FY 2023 to $5.2 billion in FY 2024 and $5.5 billion in FY 2025.
02
Industry analysts from Cowen and Jefferies suggest the release of GTA VI could occur within the FY 2024–2025 window based on these financial projections.
03
The projected revenue growth is partially attributed to Take-Two’s $12.7 billion acquisition of mobile publisher Zynga.
04
Historical data shows that major Rockstar releases correlate with massive revenue spikes, such as the 93% year-over-year increase following the 2013 launch of GTA V.
05
Take-Two’s revenue grew by 48% year-over-year to $2.6 billion during FY 2019, the year Red Dead Redemption 2 was released.
06
There is no official confirmation of a release date for GTA VI, and Rockstar Games is known for maintaining flexible development timelines for its major titles.

Summary

The primary objective of this analysis is to evaluate the potential release window for the next installment in the Grand Theft Auto franchise based on Take-Two Interactive’s financial projections. Analysts suggest that a release in fiscal year 2024 or 2025 is plausible, as the publisher anticipates a significant surge in net bookings during those periods.

Take-Two’s financial outlook, disclosed in an SEC filing regarding its $12.7 billion acquisition of Zynga, forecasts net bookings of $3.9 billion for fiscal year 2023. This figure is projected to climb to $5.2 billion in fiscal year 2024—a 33% increase—and reach $5.5 billion by fiscal year 2025. Historical data supports the correlation between major Rockstar Games releases and substantial revenue spikes; for instance, the launches of Grand Theft Auto V and Red Dead Redemption 2 resulted in year-over-year revenue growth of 93% and 48%, respectively.

While these financial targets provide a basis for speculation, the analysis notes that the projected revenue growth may also be attributed to the integration of Zynga’s mobile gaming portfolio. Furthermore, the absence of official development updates from Rockstar Games complicates definitive conclusions. Because the studio historically operates without rigid public deadlines for its major titles, the financial projections remain speculative rather than confirmed indicators of a specific release date.