Plus: A New Way to Estimate Steam Week 1 Sales

This analysis provides a framework for estimating first-week sales on Steam by examining the relationship between concurrent users (CCU) and total units sold. By evaluating internal data and public sales milestones from titles like The Wandering Village and Slime Rancher 2, a "rule of thumb" is established suggesting that first-week Steam sales typically range from 20x to 40x a game's peak launch CCU. The research indicates that highly "sticky" or replayable games often sit at the lower end of this multiplier (around 20x), while titles with shorter playtimes or less player overlap can see multipliers as high as 38x.

The scope of the data covers global PC and console market trends for late 2022, specifically focusing on the week of October 31st. Beyond the CCU-to-sales methodology, the findings track the performance of recent releases such as The Past Within and Against the Storm, while noting underperformers like Ghost Song. The analysis also forecasts upcoming high-profile launches, including Sonic Frontiers and Tactics Ogre: Reborn, weighing their Steam follower counts against critical reception and pricing strategies.

Methodologically, the report utilizes a mix of proprietary GameDiscoverCo data, third-party tracking via SteamDB, and public developer disclosures. It extends its geographic and platform coverage by compiling download and grossing charts for the U.S. PlayStation Store, Xbox, Nintendo eShop, Epic Games Store, and Meta Quest. Key observations include the continued dominance of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II on consoles, the strong debut of Bayonetta 3 on Switch, and the sustained popularity of Bonelab in the VR segment.