ReportSensor Tower
The Importance of Wishlists in 2025
1 Jan 202520 pages~11 min full read
Crossing the 100,000 wishlist threshold is the primary indicator of success, as these titles have a 71% probability of strong first-month sales compared to only 17% for those with fewer than 100,000.
Wishlist accumulation is highly top-heavy, with only 9% of games reaching the 100,000-wishlist milestone and over 90% of all titles failing to exceed 10,000.
85% of total pre-launch wishlists are collected at least four months before a game's release, emphasizing that audience commitment must be secured well in advance of launch.
Publishing a Steam page at least six months prior to launch increases wishlist growth by an average of 30% compared to pages created closer to the release date.
Major content drops, such as trailers, consistently drive significant engagement, with each release triggering a 10–15% spike in wishlist counts.
Action/Adventure and RPG/Strategy titles achieve the highest median wishlist counts (180,000–190,000), while Casual and MMO titles typically lag with medians between 70,000 and 80,000.
Titles with 10,000 or fewer wishlists face a 50% risk of underperforming, necessitating early contingency strategies like extended betas or community events.
**Executive Summary – “The Importance of Wishlists” (VGI Report, 2025)**
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### 1. What the Data Shows | Metric | Key Figure | Insight | |--------|------------|---------| | **Games surpassing 100 k wishlists at launch** | ~9 % (141/1 500) | Only a small minority achieve the “break‑out” threshold. | | **Correlation (wishlists ↔ Month‑1 sales)** | **r ≈ 0.70** (RSQ ≈ 0.49) | Strong overall link, but it spikes to **r ≈ 0.71** for games with **> 100 k wishlists**. | | **Top‑heavy distribution** | 1–2 % of titles > 1 M wishlists; > 90 % < 10 k | Success is heavily skewed toward a few blockbuster titles. | | **Genre performance** | Action/Adventure & RPG/Strategy → highest medians (≈ 180‑190 k) | Casual & MMO titles lag (median ≈ 70‑80 k) and rely more on post‑launch tactics. | | **Wishlist momentum** | Games that hit **100 k+** before launch have a **71 %** chance of strong month‑1 sales vs. **17 %** for < 100 k. | Momentum is a “crystal ball” for launch success. | | **Steam page creation timing** | 40 % of top performers publish 0.5‑1 yr before launch; 35 % publish > 1 yr early. | Early page creation gives sustained visibility and higher wishlist growth. | | **Pre‑launch wishlist accumulation** | 85 % of wishlists are collected **≥ 4 months** before launch. | The bulk of audience commitment happens well before the final countdown. |
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### 2. Why Wishlists Matter
1. **Predictive Power** – Once a title crosses the 100 k‑wishlist threshold, its first‑month sales become far more predictable (≈ 71 % correlation). 2. **Marketing Leverage** – High wishlist counts signal strong community interest, making it easier to secure press coverage, influencer partnerships, and paid‑media spend. 3. **Resource Allocation** – Studios can prioritize titles with early wishlist momentum for larger launch budgets and store‑front promotion. 4. **Risk Management** – Low‑wishlist titles (≤ 10 k) have a 50 % chance of under‑performing, suggesting a need for contingency plans (e.g., extended beta, community events).
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### 3. How Games Accumulate Wishlists
| Tactic | Effectiveness (based on VGI data) | |--------|-----------------------------------| | **Early Steam page (≥ 6 months pre‑launch)** | +30 % average wishlist growth vs. late‑launch pages | | **Regular content drops (trailers, dev logs, screenshots)** | Each major trailer ≈ 10‑15 % spike in wishlist count (case: *Kingdom Come Deliverance 2* added ~0.2 M per trailer) | | **Early Access / Demo releases** | Boosts momentum for “core” genres; median increase ≈ 12 % | | **Community engagement (Discord, Reddit AMAs)** | Stronger post‑launch
