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Memo

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Cover of TWIG #391: Xbox's 4,800 Cuts, Apex Predator Playbook, and the 6% Problem Killing New Games
57 min
Deconstructor of Fun57 min

TWIG #391: Xbox's 4,800 Cuts, Apex Predator Playbook, and the 6% Problem Killing New Games

The gaming industry is currently undergoing a structural shift characterized by extreme market consolidation and a pivot toward established intellectual property.

  • Legacy franchises older than five years now command 60% of total gaming market earnings, while new titles generate only 6% to 7% of annual revenue.
  • Microsoft is restructuring its Xbox division to focus on high-margin pillars like King and Minecraft due to a stagnant Game Pass subscriber base of approximately 30 million.
  • The gaming industry is shifting away from original intellectual property development toward the optimization of existing assets to maximize average revenue per user.
Deconstructor of FunJul 2026
Cover of Model Dev Memo Podcast, Season 7, Episode 5: Ads in ChatGPT (with Rishabh Jain)
47 min
Mobile Dev Memo47 min

Model Dev Memo Podcast, Season 7, Episode 5: Ads in ChatGPT (with Rishabh Jain)

The integration of advertising into ChatGPT represents an economically rational evolution designed to scale the platform while enhancing user discovery.

  • OpenAI's transition to an advertising model is an economically rational move that allows the company to fund product improvements while providing users with access to more advanced models.
  • The initial high-CPM (cost per mille) entry strategy is likely a deliberate tactic to prioritize signal collection and system training over immediate mass-market adoption.
  • OpenAI is expected to prioritize large, established brands for early ad placements to minimize user friction and avoid the risks associated with niche or controversial product targeting.
Mobile Dev MemoMar 2026
Cover of Mobile Dev Memo Podcast, Season 7, Episode 8: Games and AI (with Joost van Dreunen)
52 min
Mobile Dev Memo52 min

Mobile Dev Memo Podcast, Season 7, Episode 8: Games and AI (with Joost van Dreunen)

The gaming industry currently faces a critical miscalculation regarding the role of generative AI, as public markets erroneously view the technology as a disruptive force destined to replace human labor.

  • The video game industry experienced significant workforce reductions, with 15,000 layoffs in 2024 and approximately 9,500 in 2025, a trend accelerated by both economic decline and the promise of AI-driven efficiency.
  • AI currently excels at productivity and cost-cutting but fails to generate new consumer demand, a critical gap that industry leaders must address to avoid a surplus of mediocre, derivative content.
  • The massive infrastructure investment by AI companies, such as the competition for high-end Nvidia chipsets, is driving up hardware costs and creating a supply-side barrier for consumers and smaller developers.
Mobile Dev MemoMar 2026
Cover of Mobile Dev Memo Podcast, Season 7, Episode 9: RecSys and internet commerce (with Michael Komasinski)
37 min
Mobile Dev Memo37 min

Mobile Dev Memo Podcast, Season 7, Episode 9: RecSys and internet commerce (with Michael Komasinski)

The evolution of digital commerce is shifting toward an agentic model where artificial intelligence serves as an intermediary between consumers and retailers.

  • The future of digital commerce discovery will rely on a hybrid model that integrates semantic language platforms with high-volume recommendation systems (RecSys) to ensure product suggestions are accurate and relevant.
  • Criteo rejects the concept of fully autonomous purchasing agents, instead focusing its product roadmap on 'agentic' commerce that acts as an augmented, assisted experience where the human retains final decision-making authority.
  • Recommendation systems and ad-targeting algorithms are converging, as both rely on similar dual-encoder architectures and data-driven signal processing to drive conversion outcomes.
Mobile Dev MemoMar 2026
Cover of Mobile Dev Memo Podcast, Season 7, Episode 1: GenAI in CTV advertising (with Jonathan Moffie)
36 min
Mobile Dev Memo36 min

Mobile Dev Memo Podcast, Season 7, Episode 1: GenAI in CTV advertising (with Jonathan Moffie)

Generative AI is fundamentally reshaping the Connected TV (CTV) advertising landscape by dismantling the high financial barriers that historically restricted the medium to large-scale brand advertisers.

  • Generative AI is lowering financial barriers to entry for Connected TV (CTV) advertising, allowing smaller, performance-focused businesses to compete alongside large-scale brand advertisers.
  • By automating creative asset production and adapting social media content for television, AI is unlocking previously dormant CTV inventory for local and performance-driven marketers.
  • The integration of generative AI with ad servers and mobile measurement partners enables real-time optimization of creative variants based on downstream KPIs like app installs and direct purchases.
Mobile Dev MemoJan 2026