TWIG #349 The Conspiracy Behind Apple's New Gaming App and a Plea to Supercell

No one gives a [ __ ] about mobile.
No one gives a [ __ ] about
Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. They will when they need paychecks and they want jobs.
No, that's true. [Music]
Hello everyone and welcome to Twig 349. I'm Jen Dano. I am the resident marketing, publishing, and Viking on the podcast today. Here's who we have.
Phil Black Monizations are first chair. Still slow, man. Still slow, dude. Pop a red bull like me before they
I was reading the notes so I lost my cue. Eric Crest strategy and investing.
M Katkov Frano the founders and happy for the ladies to go first.
Well, well, yes. Thank you very much. The ladies. All right. Apple has a new gaming app. Here's what we got going on today. Forgot to intro the segment. Okay. Apple has a new gaming app. Actually, I've been playing with it for a while. We'll talk about it. It's just such a weird weird weird thing. Stash gets a new boss. Hopefully Homa gets his

kids as back. Phil is Discord going to IPO soon. Phil attempts a liver shot. O a liver shot on Squadbusters. Nintendo Direct directly disappoints core gamers and crests. And if we get to it, we have some thoughts on Borderland 4 as it is coming out. So, let me start off with banter and just kind of like thank everyone. Last week I talked about I have an upcoming surgery. It's tomorrow, Thursday. So by the time you hear this, I will already be done and out hopefully. Thank you. I was overwhelmed with the response. Like so many people reached out. A lot of kind words. I think I have like almost a thousand responses on on LinkedIn. It was kind of crazy. I probably also heard from about 20 people who either had brain surgery themselves or had family members. And all of the stories were just so lovely and gave me a lot of confidence that this is actually like not going to be, you know, a really big deal. I think the thing I got commented on the most though

was my new haircut.
So if you're So if you're watching, you can see it. It is like kind of Viking kind of Natalie Dormer in the Hunger Games or Judy from Cyberpunk 2077. I don't play that game, but I got that one. So on my appointment with my doctor, she said, "Oh my god, I had that haircut when I was a teenager. Can I put like a lightning bolt in it in surgery?" And I was like, "Yes, yes, you can." What? Whatever you would like to do. So anyway, thank you everyone and I will give you hand you over to the boys for the next 3 weeks after this, but I will be back soon because I don't know if I can take listening. It'll be it'll be rough. All right, what are we shilling?
Game Economist cast. Obviously world's number one Game Economist cast. We had Mr. Eric Seard on the podcast. Just quick tease on that. Got to ask the questions I've always wanted to ask Eric. You know, what should you do if you are the head marketing person on something like Battlefield? How do you deal with a lot of the brand spend? How do you analyze that? How do you think about that knowing who you are? We talked about things like why did

freetoplay conquer games but stall on platforms like Twitch or Spotify. It was a really great podcast. I think it's very different from the other type of podcasts he's normally done. We talked about his master's degree at Harvard, which has been interesting and why that was important for him. So, it was just really great to have him on. And, you know, he's a former Twig alum and he's always up to really interesting and awesome stuff.
Did you ask him for career advice?
I always do. I learn by observation when it comes to his career.
Yeah.
All right. So, for me, I just did my bianual guest lecture at USC. They have a video game school there. So, the class is by Ed Zobber. It's an advanced game business class, and it's my fifth appearance. I'm becoming a a regular. So, I'm just telling the next generation of game makers, they are badass. And these are undergraduates mostly there. I think there were two in graduate school. But the entrepreneurial spirit, I mean, they guys, they could care less about mobile though. They were like asking me all kinds of questions about like being an indie or a solo or a small group dev

for Steam games. Like, that's really all they care about. So, my public service announcement again is if you are a game industry veteran and you have the ability to take a little bit of time, you know, take the Yoda challenge, either mentor some of the the next generation or go do a speaking gig at like a local university. They appreciate it so much and it's actually like really personally rewarding. So, check that out. I think Crest has even done this. Crest has even opened his heart to the next generation. Even
I don't I don't think my message is quite as positive as yours. I'll tell you that. I did actually do the San Jose State class with Mike Williams and
I I've actually followed Jeff Karp and then Frank Jabbo is coming in the next couple weeks. So it's pretty cool to actually just do that and shoot the [ __ ] with these kids that are excited about the industry. So
So they don't care about mobile? Like like what do you mean they don't care?
No one gives a [ __ ] about mobile. No one gives a [ __ ] about
Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa,

whoa. They will when they need paychecks and they want jobs.
No, that's true.
They don't understand the empirical element yet. Like mobile and HD very different. Creative, easier to understand. Mobile, thicker, denser, more empirical. And then they're USC people, so they probably don't have a lot of empirical training.
They're also children, so they have more creative integrity than what it takes to build [ __ ] on mobile.
Correct.
They just they just haven't had to get a paycheck yet.
Yeah.
They haven't lost their soul yet. They haven't lost their soul. one day. Let me show a little bit as well. So Bashian Bergman was on the podcast. He is the COO of Soulston, but he wasn't here to talk about Soulston. He talked about his book on why everyone needs a gaming strategy. So this was definitely a book aimed at brands and how the brands and Yeah, Chris is actually showing press play.
Look at that. Look at that.
Unopened. Unopened.
Look at the binding is like perfect.
Yeah. You can see it. No,
every book in my house has perfect

binding. Let me tell you that.
Yeah, he he has the audio version of that. But no, so Bashan has been talking a lot on he was on Gamescom and he's doing a lot of talking events. He has like head of brand of Adidas with him and so forth. So it's very interesting to dive deeper of what the big corporations are thinking about gaming and gaming strategies. So that's one if you're interested that piece and press play is the book. So check it out. And then on the blog, we had my post on work harder is not a strategy. This is something that Joe Kim triggered me with his newsletter. And everybody who knows Joe Kim knows that he's the crown king of hard work. So he wrote a little bit about like, you know, slipping milestones, low morale, vague road maps, and how we just need to move faster is not the right answer. And I continued with that. So anyways, that's on the blog. I just had a lunch with game makers Joe Kim and a bunch of other folks down in San Monteo last week. That was really fun to get together with a great group. I did get a really positive

I forgot about this. I I did get a really positive response from someone about what I was talking about with Unity, like with the post on Unity and someone that had worked at Unity for a long time was like, "Yeah, it was really really nice to actually hear from someone outside what we were all feeling inside under John Ricatello's reign." It's like and I was like, "Oh my god, thank you for like I'm glad I'm the voice of the people so to speak within these companies
channeling the feelings."
So summarize what was your post about?
No, my post was the fact that John Ratella managed to [ __ ] into the ground because he kept going after the stupid [ __ ] of like, you know, broadening out to different verticals, going after movies and [ __ ] like that, right? Like just the way he is, you know? you know, spend to grow type thing rather than focusing on gaming and focusing on adte. That's what they should have done all along, right? Period. End of sentence.
And clearly that's exactly what they're doing right now.
You know, Epic's engine, the engine is used by so many other industries other

than just games. And so maybe they saw that and they were jealous of Epic's, you know, what Unreal is doing.
No, this is PR puff pieces from the Mandalorian. They used it once cuz it was good marketing. What share of revenue do you think comes from non-gaming activities related to Unreal Engine?
10% of what is already 5% of Epic's revenue?
100%. It's not a real business. And so like when Unity was going IPO, I was getting calls to do some kind of like analysis on the TAM for different verticals for engines, right? I'm like, you're going [ __ ] public and telling people that you're actually targeting these groups and you don't even know what the [ __ ] TAM is? It's like it's like it was all complete folly and [ __ ] right? That's I mean, sorry, this moving on. All right, corre corrections. I don't want to go on a rant on [ __ ] Unity. They're actually in good shape right now, by the way. It looks like things are actually looking up for him.
What's going on with Vector?
Yeah, I mean, Vector is real like to some degree. Like, it is a better tool

and they they are getting some traction out there. The question is whether or not like app level just [ __ ] annihilates them in some way, you know, just goes after them again. And their core engine business is absolute [ __ ] But the engine business is what it is, but it's not growing. It's not interesting. So the fundamental question around Unity right now is whether or not they can actually access the information they suggest that they can. Right? If they can access engine information from their clients, then they might actually be able to be competitive against AppL. And some people think they can and some people think they can't. So that's kind of the big thing. But what's his name? Bronnberg is doing an amazing job so far. Even though I don't think people like him all that much. I think he's doing what's necessary to get that company back on track. So
interesting.
Two cents on Bramberg versus Ricatello just from from Unity events. So I vividly remember we're in Tel Aviv. Seford was sitting next to me and Ricatello was given a speech and it was about metaverse and as soon as he finished the speech he ran away like

it's you can ask Seford what running from the stage looks like he ran away just not to take the questions and then on the on the last appfest that Unity hosts Bramberg was there and I remember like the stark difference because when there was halftime quarter time whatever you call it like in between the talks he was actually there mixing with key clients who are all present at this event. So, that's just my my two cents of seeing both of them work in a glimpse.
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All right, moving on. Quick correction regarding my Diablo Immortal efforts. I did get a call from someone about that was on this team and he generally objected to my assessment of the efforts from Blizzard on Diablo Immortal versus Netty's, right? He claims that it was more like 50/50, right? Which I think is complete [ __ ] [ __ ] Frankly, honestly, it's not 50/50, dude. Like, and he even he admitted that it was like 8020 in terms of personnel. And so, if you think about manh hours, I I'm sticking with the 9010. All right. But what he did say was that they did have an amazing team that pulled this thing

together on the Blizzard side, like 40 to 50 people that were really high quality, which is totally true, and I totally know this, right, is that they pulled together a team that was really good with PMs and designers, and they did the herculean effort of pulling Netis along and making this game as good as it was, particularly on the single player side. So, they did the heavy lifting, which is totally true, and I will acknowledge that. My main point has always been and I think we were in both in agreement on this is that this game would have never been made by Blizzard alone, right? The way it was for mobile, right? And without Netis, it would just never been made. And basically
what I'm always been saying all along is that Blizzard has way too much creative integrity to do what it takes to make money on mobile, right? So it's just like it's an impossible, you know, solve to some degree. and they actually did it with Mortal. But the reason why they are no longer, it looks like they are completely moving away from mobile. It's likely because they just couldn't get their the people on board to do what it takes to do what

they need to do for mobile.
Regarding your correction, I what what is that? I think I can hear Irvine cheering from my house right now. There's still a huge amount of people that work on that that love hearing, you know, that you know your support and they are still kicking ass. they are still driving a lot of revenue. You know, there's a woman who's leading that team which is like again like super super inspiring like payw she
she's a [ __ ] gangster rockstar.
She's a badass. That's part of the reason I'm making the apologies cuz I know that she's [ __ ] amazing and I don't want to like getting a lot of love.
Yeah. Yeah. No, no, they are responsible for a lot of what's amazing right now and so thank you for saying that. I know that that makes them happy. All right, let's get into the headlines. So from a market perspective, oh, Phil gave me this one. This is really interesting. So this is like a kind of like a social media meets Steam kind of integration news. So these kinds of platforms are

things that I think are going to be like absolutely gamechanging and and Phil hopefully you agree is why you put it in here. So Billy Billy is a Chinese video sharing platform. If you haven't heard of it, it's kind of like the animation geek culture YouTube plus Twitch of China. So they are adding a oneb button steam wish listing soon. So Phil, you found this post from Salva Joe on LinkedIn. Are we going to agree that this is kind of like a PM plus a PMM's like acquisition dream?
This is huge. I actually think this is quite enormous news which is being buried. I think the Chinese pronunciation is bey. It's YouTube. It's anime. It's basically otaku culture for the Chinese market. And this is how a lot of Chinese users discover games. And so the fact that there's going to be a oneclick ad to Steam wish list. It's exactly what you said. I mean, it's a dream for marketers. And this is the theme we keep going back to in the last two years on the podcast is the growth of Steam in China has been basically

responsible for the lion share of Steam's overall growth. The key question I have here, and I actually reached out to Zala, but I didn't get a comment in time for the podcast, is where is the wish list going? Is this going to the VPN Chinese steam or is this going to the domestic steam that no one uses? And I would be fascinated if this went to the VPN steam because it feels like it's now just openly flagrant violation of Chinese law and everyone seems to be okay with it. The CCP is okay with it. You know, the CCP that called games the opium of the people. I'm very curious to see how this will play out. But I think this is really big news for user acquisition and the growth of Steam in China because I think this unlocks a lot of performance-based marketing spend at least getting you to the wish list part of the funnel.
I hope our own platforms here in the west take note like if you know Valve and Steam, oh my god, can you imagine if you're in Tik Tok or some of these other apps and you this or even YouTube, can you imagine going to YouTube and there was a one button press to download? Oh my god, it is a dream come true. All

right, so let's go to the other platform that had some new news. Did you guys get an email from Apple? So, Apple sent out the notification that their new Apple Games app is out. I saw it from my email. Then also, we have a Polygon article that covered this. So, so I love the title of the Polygon article. Apple's new gaming app is out and it includes features you'll swear you already had. Oh my god. Can I just like as an aside say I am an Apple user. I've been in the EOS. I am deep. I have every single possible thing that you can want. I just ordered two new Apple AirPod Pro 3s to come and show up. I'm embarrassed right now to be an iPhone user because every one of the features that comes out from them is something that an Android user had 5 years ago. And please, if you are at Apple on the iPhone or other side, like let's start catching up and being innovative versus being a fast follow.

Anyway, okay. So, the new games app came out with iOS 26, which is what launched on September 15th. I think it's rolling out slowly if you haven't already updated. I've been in the beta, so I've seen this for a while now. This was shown back at WWDC in June. So, if you remember, I think we showed an image of it was like Marvel Snap on, you know, the different devices. Good, you know, good on those guys for getting as the central image on that. So, the Apple's games app is a central hub for all games across the App Store, App Store, Arcade, and the Game Center. And this goes across all devices. So, it does go to Mac, it does go to phone. Dear Xbox, I hope you're paying attention with your Xbox Anywhere. That only actually goes to two platforms and doesn't include mobile. Just side note, this also includes personal recommendations, easy access to previously downloaded games. So, this quote from the article was really interesting. The library tab won't just show you what games you currently have installed on your device,

but every single game you've downloaded in the Apple ecosystem, including ones that have been delisted, looking at you, Flappy Bird. Social and engagement features also show up. They show you what friends are playing, offering leaderboards, event tracking, and game invites. I think you can actually do some sort of like custom challenges with your friends. I thought this also sounded interesting. Again, I'm a Mac user. The Mac version of the app comes with an extra trick. It will automatically show you all games installed on your computer, whether they are from the App Store, Steam, GOG, or anywhere else. All of those games can be booted up from the Apple Games app directly, making it an all-in-one launcher. Interesting. So, Crest, this looks like Apple Arcade subscription isn't going anywhere. Uh, and I'm not doing this to trigger an Apple Arcade rant, I promise, but what do you think about all of this?
You know, I I looked at it for a while last couple days. I I I think it's completely embedded with the new iOS 26. So, everyone should have access at this

point if you've upgraded to iOS 26.
But so far, it looks like Apple is actually finally making an effort to do something positive for the gaming category.
Okay, something nice.
I said it. Now I'm going have to burn myself, light myself on fire for saying something positive.
But the app is like streamline, you know. I it does create an opportunity to create a real friends list which obviously is a feature that's been around forever but you know in game center completely abandoned that for some reason. You can discover new games like you said you can re-engage with old games which is kind of cool for those that have churned out. You know the arcade integration is there which you know I'm not a huge fan of to be honest but certainly not good for third party but I understand it. I get it. I know what they're coming from right they have events they have achievements. I'm sure they have leaderboards. I mean, I it creates a platform that actually could be quite cool going forward, right? But I have to reiterate my previous rant from when this thing was announced. What the [ __ ] have they been doing the last

15 years, you know? Like, why is it now that they're finally uncovering all these [ __ ] basic features that Game Center should have been evolving over time, you know?
And I think it comes back to the same thing, right? They are up to something. They are totally up to something, right? This has nothing to do with gaming. This has something to do with protecting their ass on the 30% from every country in the free world that's suing their asses off. So, I don't know. So far so good though. And on the flip side of this, this is showing quite an effort. Like this is not something that is like trivial in terms of what they're building. You know, they are trying to provide some value for the publishers and maybe hopefully to fix some kind of dis, you know, the discovery issues on the app store, which is a [ __ ] abomination still. You know, it might be a little bit too late. I'm not sure how customers will actually discover this app or use this app. Is this going to help them in the process of finding games? Are you going to go from advertising and push them into the gaming app versus the store app? I don't know. There's a lot of questions, right? Yeah,

I'd love to see some CI as to like how the general consumer like
sees this app and how they use this app and or whether it is just a little bit too late and that people have already kind of like stuck in the rut of what they do in order to discover apps which is primarily likely by advertising on Facebook and half of them right so I think there's some potential here but it is unclear what their motivations are and what the future plans will be so
I have like glass half full and then glass half empty. So the glass half full take would be that now you have all your games in one place and it's the low friction and most importantly you can see the old games. You remember that game that you downloaded back on your iPhone what, five or four? That's all there. If you download it, you'd be like, why the hell did I play ever this game? There's social features. There's challenges. So, that that could be a a sleeper head. We don't know. But social is always powerful. The discovery seems to be better. So, that might help with overlooked games. Like even now as we're

looking at this, you know, top games played and very well surfaced. There is controller support. So the whole crossplatform play like who hasn't played Delta Force on their computer with a controller. It works in the landscape and now it's I don't know. I'm not going to go glass half empty here. Anyways, so the games look good on a big screen and then the glass half empty take aka the Neil Long take would be that shout out to Neil Long of Mobile Gamer Biz. So, feels like a game center dressed up, you know, friends, leaderboards, achievements, event tracking. There's nothing new in that like we had this before. And of course, you don't have to do new if you do it what existed but better. The discovery part, just like Phil is showing here, you know, it shows match masters, it shows Brawl Stars, it shows Clash Royale. So, like ton of supercell games. So, is this just the same thing where they promoting their big games and Apple

Arcade indies and then nobody else? Nobody in the middle, not and nobody who's smaller or who didn't publish with Apple Arcade. For developers, it seems like this is, you know, a bunch of new hoops that you have to jump through in order to get that coveted featuring that Apple will hold for you. And then once you get that coveted feature, is it going to be the same as it has been for a decade? a poor organic traffic. It's just, you know, they just blows your KPIs. And it feels also just like anything Apple does, a way to force hardware updates because this is their liquid glass thing, their transparency effects, the animation richness. It's just like get the new iPhone. Don't get the iPhone Air cuz it's it's weak, but get the the Pro [ __ ] 2000. Anyways, I do have to also agree with with Crest on the other 30% defense against the other 30%. I know we're going to talk about Stash later than this episode because if you're a conspiracy theorist like we all

here are on this podcast, it's corporate conspiracy theorists. You put all your games into one app and you take it from everywhere else and say in this app only Apple Pay works. So no third party payment options. And that would be the conspiracy theory of this new app that has games because under a single app you can you don't have to enforce that. So that could be it or not. We're just con conspiracy theorists. Phil, what do you think?
There's a couple structural things that I think are important to point out here. So remember your app updates including games are still going to happen on the App Store app. So you don't get updates through this app, which I think is really important. The key question is where are people going to start their discovery, right? And so this app is only relevant if people start their discovery on the games app and use the search bar within that app. That is the key question to me is how does this fit into the ecosystem? And so are people going to start discovering games through this app? Are they going to go back to

the app store? It's it's unclear to me what the product management angle is, the fact that they decided to disambiguate these things. The nice thing is the editorials are gone.
They're finally gone. And I think that the other piece here that I thought was really important that we we haven't quite talked about the top lists are back, right? So remember they moved to the top grossing lists. They still have the top download lists and now we get this game center top played games. Now I'm not quite sure what that means. I'm sure it's some measure of active users. And so that's a boon if you're Sensor Tower. And I'm very interested to see if Sensor Tower will do a press release. I'm very curious what this top played games means. But again, this goes back, remember we were talking about the GameCraft podcast and a lot of Blake and Mitch's theory around the top grossing charts being a huge doom loop because people were using it for discovery and then they were hacking UA. And so I'm very interested to see whether or not this is going to be powerful enough to reintroduce that behavior. All signs point to it won't be cuz I don't think people are going to engage in this side app. But that being said, like I agree with you guys like it is nice for Apple to throw us the bone. My concern is that

this could be negative for us because they're going to start to remove featuring from the App Store app, which is where all the discovery and impressions happen and segment it into this. They're basically just shoving all the games people into a junk app. I actually think this could be negative depending on what the actual user interaction with it is. To your point, what does the CI look like for this? I think is going to be very, very interesting.
I want to double down on on exactly what both of you are saying. And by the way, CI is consumer insights. if if you aren't following what that is is I'm in the beta so I've had this app for god a few months now I don't understand the use case for it and I am not directed to engage in the player journey using this centralized app so first when it downloads to your phone it goes at the back of all of your apps at least this is how I think about using my phone is my my first screen is like all the stuff that I use and if you're on like the fourth or fifth like scroll I'm like I'm almost never really going there. I just don't understand why I would go and

think to make this part of my player journey and engaging my games and not going to directly to my games from a user acquisition standpoint. What drives me to this app to then see this and engage with this on the daily basis? You know, if I were them and I don't know how it works, like this still needs to be somehow like in the app store and that opens up inside of the app store itself, which is what you are trained to do. you're trying to ask a player to go on a different player journey than they've ever engaged in on the device. And so that's what I'm super worried about is if they're not going to market you and direct you to this funnel, then no one's going to go to this funnel.
I couldn't agree more. I think that the key will be all the social features, right? Like that's the USP that would drive people to the app is, oh, I have a new challenge. I have to open this app or, you know, I have a new achieve and I have to I just like I don't understand. Like don't you just get that in the game that you're playing? Like I don't
I can see my achievements here.
Yeah,
I can see my achievements relative to global players. Remember that was really important for Steam data too. That's how

we saw that like for instance Call of Duty single player completion rates were collapsing. This was a great RS Technica piece a couple years back. So like a lot of more data becomes visible. But I it's got to be those social features that that bring you back your friends list management. Anytime you think about opening Xbox, you might be opening this.
All right, let's keep going. So Phil, you want to talk about Tik Tok? I think I just want to give a warm welcome to the Tik Tok family to the US of a baby. It is being sold to a conglomerate of Oracle. Silverlake, which is a private equity firm, I believe. Correct me if I'm wrong, Eric. And then, of course, A6Z is going to have a stake in it. US investors are going to hold 80%. And Americans are going to dominate the board and there's going to be one member that's selected by the US government, which is terrifying. And not only that, US users are actually going to have to move to a new app. Well, I'm very interested to see how they handle that transition. High-risk moment is making sure that transition is consistent.
Wait, when the [ __ ] is this happen?
Deal is not done,

but the final talks to be bought.
Yeah. I mean, there are some there are some shenanigans over whether or not this is going to be packaged into broader US negotiations over tariffs. The other interesting piece here is that the US firm is actually going to license the algorithm from the Chinese. Of course, like all the data is now going to go through the United States. And the next piece is like this is going to be done in 30 to 45 days, ladies and gentlemen. Like this is happening and there is a moment that this could disrupt user acquisition in mobile. So I do think there's something to planning around this and thinking about how can you leverage this? How can you take advantage of this if you know this is coming? What are the effects we expect on CPIs?
O I I just find this weird. Oracle Silver Lake which is what is it private equity
and Andre Horowitz. What is a VC fund doing here?
They're a registered investment adviser. They're not really a VC anymore. Shouldn't they exit companies, not acquire?
I have so many things to say about this, but it's all gets really political really fast. So, I'm not going to go here, but this is really fascinating. And unfortunately, my daughter is still addicted to Tik Tok. So,

as is everyone.
There goes my hundreds of thousands of dollars for education blown on a [ __ ] piece of [ __ ] app. All right, I'm not Let's just move on. This is actually fascinating. The fact that this actually got done is absolutely crazy. All right. Oh, well, let me talk about AI. So, Germanybased AI gaming tech company Bourne House has raised 15 million in series A round led by Excel with participation with Tencent and our friends at Laton Ventures. Phil, you got to show this picture. You got to you got to show this picture. So formerly known as sle which clearly is evident from the picture that these boys slay born is developing AIdriven virtual companion and social app. The company previously secured 5 million in June 24. The total funds equal 25. When I saw this picture I pinged gam. I was like girkham did you invest into a boy band? Seriously. But on a more serious note, I actually

wanted to ask Crest and the rest of you like are we in this sort of a AI forX bubble? And before you guys answer this, let me explain. So a little bit about Bourne. So I'm just taking this company as an example. I'm not saying this is the epiphany of a bubble, but just as an example of a company that gets a pretty big raise. So they released five number one global social apps. Great. Their flagship AI character, Pingu, raised, played with, and even co-parented by friends and family, has reached more than 50 million users globally, becoming the biggest AI character app with its own IP in the US born, now raised 25 million to blah blah blah blah blah. So, they prompted this whole thing as they should. And they're basically saying this one app as an example, it shows how good they are at this. And Pangu might be great, I didn't have the time to interact with it. It has 15 million downloads and 2 million in net revenue over its lifetime. Revenues are decreasing pretty rapidly at this

moment. The way I see it, it's break even at best as an app. Likely not due to the high running cost because every time you send a prompt, the AI model has to run forward passes through billions of parameters. This requires GPUs which are [ __ ] expensive as anybody who's invested in Nvidia knows to buy to run to power. And the more complicated your AI app is, the longer the prompts and the longer the outputs mean more tokens means more GPU cycles means more cost. And again, looking at these curves, again, I understand that they're going to release more great AI apps. I just don't understand where these valuations are coming from.
All I want to say is [ __ ] you guys. You stole my Pangu. Pangu is the main character in Team Fight Tactics TFT. Dear Riot, go sue them because I'm looking at the app icon and it's a Penguin and that's Pangu. So, [ __ ] you.
By the way, they talk about in this publication like how Pangu is their original IP and the first like big like

AI IP and it's literally from TFT.
Yeah, they ripped off my beloved little Pangu. Oh god, [ __ ] I don't want to get too crazy, but any of the character AI stuff is really, really scary. I listened to a podcast this morning about how different folks are falling into AI delusions and they're also falling into these like really negative relationships with these character AIs, especially kids. So, I don't know, just if you got kids, watch out for that stuff. All right, so the thing that I wanted to talk about, I was hearing some rumors that like basically I think some of the big news will be that Discord is going to IPO sometime soon. I don't know what it soon means, but I think we've been starting to see a lot of signs that are pointing towards this. So, they were rumored to go IPO back in 2122 and they've been making a ton of headway on revenue. They have the Nitro subscriptions, they have server subscriptions, they have app store and bot monetization, and then obviously on

Quests. Then they also have advertising. So, I have just as a user been seeing, you know, a ton of the advertising. We've talked about it before. You know, what they're doing is just like amazing. In terms of ads, we talked about it with Roblox as well. We saw Roblox making a lot of headway with mobile rewarded video. And I know that for Discord, they've been doing mobile ad testing with all of the big companies. I think Supercell was in there. I've also been seeing I always have my Discord open on desktop and I see ads all the time in a non-intrusive sidebar and those advertisers are top tier. it is, you know, top game companies, top streaming companies, tech and hardware, productivity, like all of the big names are involved in this. And I have to imagine that everyone is clamoring to be a part of this beta because of the segmentation and the way that you can reach these audiences. So, Crash, as the master of all of these things, is there any Sherlock Holmes work that you've done to understand if Discord IPO might

be coming soon or which comes first? Like, so we got Discord and then the other rumor we always talk about is Supercell. So, what are you finding out? What are you hearing?
Oh, actually, unfortunately, I have not heard anything specifically on Discord except what we've talked about before was the fact that they got the new CEO and he's focusing on advertising and really driving the advertising business, which is something they should have done from the get-go. We are seeing the market getting a little bit more ripe for IPOs. I think according to Chat GPT, we have like 244 IPOs this year, up 80% from last year. Some of the valuations are a little bit weaker like in terms of history. We've even seen some spaxs starting to hit the markets which is
[ __ ] scary dude because that's a disaster.
But if you think about it from the perspective of investors, if you look at the Discord investor list, we're talking about Franklin Temple 10 cau Fidelity Investments Green Oak Index Benchmark first greyark. There are a lot of

investors here that want some [ __ ] liquidity, right? because this thing has been really like invested over time. So yeah, if they can get a window, they're going to go out. The question is if they can maintain this valuation that they go out public with their advertising and the rest of the what they're trying to do from a revenue perspective. So I think it's possible. I think Discord is far more likely than Supercell given the market that they're in.
They're investing into they're at solutions now.
Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah. Which is what they should have done
from inception. long time ago.
As Se says, everything is an ad network.
Exactly. And he's also an adviser, by the way, to Discord. We talked about this on our episode.
Oh, that's right. For how long?
Absolutely.
Couple of months. I think he's a big part of Quests, too, right? Because Quests finally give us direct user attribution in HD, which is a huge step forward. And so, like, this is a lifeline. I mean, we talked about this when Quest launched, but this is just such an important problem for HD to solve. I work with a lot of HD companies that have really good user numbers,

steady monetization, but they're trying to figure out how to grow their business. This is what mobile freeto play solved. This is still a huge issue on HD and I I I'm really positive on a lot of these efforts and I just hope they pan out because we all have a vested interest in this. So let me just be clear again on this whole idea is that the benchmark guys on their podcast talking about discovery and bringing you know attribution and user acquisition to PC right and Discord is like the unique opportunity from a distribution perspective or whatever. He's like spewing this stuff out there and throwing this out there in the effort to bring more visibility into Discord to bring them public. I mean, this is all part of the whole machine of bringing people public, right? And and to get more interest in the story that they're creating. And so, you know, Mitch was out there talking about this ages ago, and that's just all part of the PR, you know, scheme to get them more interested. Will they actually this materialize and be a valuable contributor to like discovery and marketing? Who knows, right? But

just like Twitch, they're not going to make money on selling server upgrades and like funky emojis. Yeah, you're preaching to the choir here, but I've been bitching about this for for these two companies for so long. It's just like I'm tired of hearing myself talk about it, right? But whether or not it's still going to be a meaningful contributor to acquisition remains to be seen, right? But they're making the effort now, which is really, really good. And it gives them a much better story to tell Wall Street.
Yeah. If anyone is working with them on ad products, especially on the mobile side, I just would love to hear how those tests are going. I would have to imagine it's expensive, but if we start to see really high good conversion and good, you know, traffic coming through, then like it's gonna unlock magic for them. I mean, look at Apploven for God's sake.
They can never be as powerful what Appven is on mobile because you can't track as much of the information, but I would imagine that's who they're aspiring to be. All right, so let's keep going. We want to give a huge congratulations to friend of the pod

Henry Loenfels for leaving Homa and he has become the CEO of Stash. Like well done on the cons. I saw this everywhere. And my question to him is are his kids I don't know if you guys remember but his kids were on our podcast maybe last year and they were brilliant. They were awesome and I hope they can backfill him at Homa and they have their own job in the game industry.
I want to say congrats. I'm a huge fan of Henry. He's a great guy. I haven't actually spoken to him in a while because it seems like he's clearly very busy and too busy to talk to me. But as I said on LinkedIn, good luck managing Archie. He's he's a handful, right? And I really wanted to make some derogatory comment about the French or working for the French, but it seems like this is more like a move to a bigger better opportunity and has nothing to do with working for the French, but anyway, well deserved. Good luck with the with Archie and good luck at at your new gig.
Yeah, is actually doing pretty well. And I knew that something was happening because I pinged him. We pulled the stats and Home was like number one in

terms of hybrid casual in our purchase revenues. I'm like, Henry, congratulations. He was like, we've been working pretty hard, but he wasn't like pumping it. Like before, he would have reached out to me and to Phil so that we could we could show how well they're doing. So clearly something was up in the air. But I want to congratulate of course my cousin Henry. He makes the entire Feldman clan proud. So So way to go Henry. And yet like I have to be the analyst and I have to say that you don't switch the gaffer if you're winning. So you know Dom can roll the app charge clip over here but [Music] web stores. You've seen what good looks like but have you seen great app charge is the direct to consumer platform backed by the likes of Supercell and built by monetization pros from Moonactive Platika Huge Games and others. People who know the difference. App charge powers over half a billion dollars in transaction a year for top studios. Optimizing every detail. Deeply

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Oh, all right. So, Crest, let's hear about the Nintendo Direct.
All right. Well, Nintendo had their, I think, first Switch 2 official direct,

as far as I can tell, in line with the Super Mario 40th anniversary, and so they announced a few games that are coming out. First of all, remakes for Super Mario Galaxy and Galaxy 2 on October 2nd. The big announcement was a new movie in April of 2026 for Super Mario. They did announce a re-release date for Metroid Prime, which I think people will really like. They are doing Switch 2 editions of Mario Tennis, Fever, Yoshi, and Super Mario Wonder. There was a few thirdparty announcements. Pokemon Pootopia, Pokemon Legends, Hades 2, Final Fantasy 7 remake, Dragon Quest 7, I think that's a remake as well. I don't know, there wasn't that many surprises, but one of the surprises was the Virtual Boy revival potentially teased, which is fascinating. And they also announced ports of Resident Evil 7, 8, Fatal Frame 2, Stardew Valley, and Overcooked 2. So,

I think the only real notable missing thing from this particular first party announcement was any information on any new Zeldas or Smash Brothers or or the Zelda movie
or Animal Crossing movie. Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. So, there's nothing really Zelda related, Animal Crossing or Smash Brothers, which are the three big IPs that seem to be missing from this announcement. My take kind of on this is like the lack of new IP in Nintendo's library is relatively evident. Like they aren't doing anything new. It's like remaster, remake, spin-off, you know, oh my, like that's just the constant like regurgitating of the same type of content. And despite my like overwhelmingly positive take on Switch 2, both now and in the future, I think you're starting to see some of the core backlash against new IP and new things in the ecosystem because I don't think we're really seeing any type of Nintendo innovation whatsoever. And maybe people will disagree with me on this, but even the hardware itself is so iterative.

It's it's almost very Sony like, you know, or Microsoft like. So, but I think that's kind of where we are in this console cycle. And I talk about this all the time. It's like, you know, you rinse and repeat and repeat and rinse and just keep doing the same thing over and over again. And that's what really the kind of the customers want. This could impact their hardware software thing longer term, but I don't think that's going to manifest itself anytime soon, you know. But I think for the sake of the the customer and some of the core like Nintendo fanboys, I'm hoping that they get more creative inspiration going forward and create new things for the platform as it gets more mature. I mean, I think that's kind of important. But I think it's delivering again what the customers want and and despite some, you know, trepidation from a, you know, vocal minority like the IGN guys or some of the enthusiast press, I think this is what's going to make them successful. And finally, I would just say like this first holiday will really set the tone for the whole cycle. And I think they

will deliver what the customer wants more broadly. And I believe that this likely this holiday is going to be record-breaking for them given the content that they have and what they're providing for their customer. So overall, still very positive.
I think that's a great, you know, kind of summary of of everything. The things that I wanted to pull out from that, I mean, I I agree with you. I'm just I was bummed to see not there wasn't like a Zelda and you're right in the huge gap with Super Smash Brothers like I don't think they've done one since like 2018 or something like I mean so the thing I wanted to pull out was the Super Mario Galaxy movie. So that's set like you said to come out April of 2026 in the US. I have to say I didn't love the trailer. And you know, maybe it's because Super Mario Galaxy was when I was a little bit older, but I remember that being the first like 3D version of Mario. And because Mario 1, the Mario movie was already in 3D, I didn't feel that it was like a really good unique trailer that really teased anything for me other than there's more Mario coming

to the movie theater. So, if there was a tease, it was really insider. I was like, where's the little star guy? It was like some you're following a butterfly through the fields and then up into the sky. And I'm like, you know, it's not really even hitting on anything. What was interesting is this point, which is Super Mario Galaxy and Galaxy 2 are going to be released as a bundle in October, like you said. So before the holiday season, which we all know, we call it, you know, Q4 or the hard that leads into the holiday time frame. Like this is a big deal. The standalone prices are $40 and then $70 for the bundle.
Jesus. Really?
Yeah. Like I was like this, you know, this is crazy.
These games are a thousand years old.
That's what I was going to say is like these things look like ports. They didn't even say remastered. I think the articles I saw were like visualization improvements, but I was like this is insulting. This is insulting to the core player. However, on the other hand, to

your repurpose and rinse and repeat, this is brilliant because you're relaunching this content at the best time for the holiday season when all the parents are going to be out there looking for something to, you know, buy for the Switch. It's Mario, we're coming up on the movie hype and the anniversary. So, in the toy industry, we have a thing where we would relaunch all of our major IP every 5, seven, 10 years because you have a chance to reach a brand new generation of kids that don't know anything about your IP. So, Beyblade is like a toy brand that has been relaunched like three or four or five times since I started working on it back in the day. So, now what you're doing is by just putting these ports out there, all these kids have no idea that this game existed. So, to them, it's brand new. you didn't have to spend a lot of money. You've got nostalgia for older parents or like, "Oh, I remember playing that game. Isn't that great?" So, you know, the learning folks is that sometimes if you do like a little facelift and relaunch it, it's a brand new thing for others. I just think as

us, as people in the industry, it feels gross because they didn't even really make an effort to improve it.
Well, I think that's a great segue into their transition to being a Hollywood company and just rehashing old ideas. I think we should understand the Super Mario movie in the context of Nintendo's P&L. So Nintendo pre-SW Switch 2, correct me if I'm wrong, Eric, you know, around 12, 14 billion a year in gross. The Super Mario movie just in its theatrical run worldwide did around $1.4 billion. So we start to add in DVD, huge, and we start to add in DVD, streamer rights, all those things, easily going to clear two billion potentially within the year it was released. So that's a material impact on Nintendo's PNL. Oh, wo wo wo wo.
They don't get all that.
They don't get nearly any of that.
Sure. Sure. But I would argue that there's some serious margin in that because remember it's animation which No, no, no.
They don't make the movies. Like they license this [ __ ] They're going to get 10 or 15%. They don't take on
I think they're going to get a lot more.

And especially now that this thing is chugging, they're going to have be in a extremely powerful negotiating position. I mean, Hollywood executives are, I'm sure, fighting tooth and nail to get a piece of this. And I'm sure they're going to start to own more and more of the production pipeline as they be. Look it, we've got
I'll concede that. I'll concede that. But when you throw numbers like 1.5, two billion, three billion, like that's not going to the bottom line. That's the box office. Yes. Yes. Correct.
That's completely fair. But now they're going to start to be stacked. Right now it's not just one movie a year, it's two movies a year, it's three movies a year. Right. And not only that, it's animation. So your production cycles can be way quicker. They're going to [ __ ] one of these out every single year. It's coming out a year later. Jen,
no. Uh, no it's not. The movie was last year, the Super Mario movie.
So, what is that? A couple, what is it, 18 months?
That's not how it works. Animation is very expensive, very, very lengthy. It takes forever. The approval rights are from Nintendo have got to be like a huge pain in the ass. These movies are

actually incredibly expensive and which is why Nintendo farms it out to Hollywood who knows how to do that who takes all of the risk and they only make between 20 10 and 20% as kind of like a licensing fee on that. Then again what happens is all boats rise so they're going to get a cut from all the consumer products. So when Mario came out last year or two years ago even I was it 24 I think it was 24 like the toy actually I think it was 23 because I was working on a toy project and Mario was one of the top selling toy brands from an action figure perspective but that entire line only sold around maybe $130 million retail sales. you still at the margin though relative to like a physical movie. Animation can be done at a much quicker pace and at a much lower budget. Like if we were to compare this to what the Link movie is going to cost, I would argue it's going to be a lot less. Not only that, for the sequels too, it's not going to be rising costs. Like they can lock down these voice actors forever. And to your point, Jen, it's not just

the toys. Remember, they got the theme parks too, right? They have the one in California, they have the one in Japan.
Yeah. All of this is licensed. And it's, by the way, that business is amazing. When you when you license your IP,
it's it's like
what did Eric say? Line them up like coke and and snort.
Yeah, exactly. No, I he said that.
Yeah, that was that was a great line. People missed on that.
Line up those minimum guarantees and snort them up.
But these movies are going to be
the dwarfs do it all day long, right?
But but this this is this is starting to matter more and more to them, right? This is them becoming the Japanese Disney that they should have always been, right? This is them embracing their identity and I think this is really positive for them. I think it's good for the country of Japan.
That's great. Yes.
Sorry. I agree with what all that you're saying. Maybe some of the pieces of are a little exaggerated, but who who ever exaggerates on this podcast?
No. Nobody.
But yeah, I think Yeah, you're right. This is a boon for them. If if they can build us particularly a second successful movie out of this franchise and then continue to release stuff, this

will be a good margin driver for them.
But this is just the start. Their war chest is unreal. When's the Kirby movie coming? I'm sure they're already talking about it. Donkey Kong, we already have Link. They're going to be [ __ ] these out. These are ready made.
Part of the thesis of why I was really bullish on Nintendo, particularly for the Switch 2, is that the new management basically said outwardly that they were going to embrace what you're suggesting is that they were going to go broad, do movies, do theme parks, do more licensing, and get out there compared to what they've done in the past. And this was part of the positive thesis, not to mention the fact that Switch 2 was going to be is a no-brainer. So, yeah, it looks like they are starting to execute against this idea and this plan.
And one last shout out to Pokemon Poctopia. This is what people have been asking for forever is an Animal Crossing style Pokemon game. I mean, this thing is going to do gang busters.
I know. I forgot to mention that. Like, this is what Animal Crossing should have been, right? Like with Pokemon. So,
oh my god, I'll never see my wife again.

she will like lose herself in this game. 4,000 hours in Animal Crossing. It's insane.
I'm actually a little bit surprised Nintendo is allowing this kind of thing where they're literally copying their one of their biggest IPs.
Well, they don't own Game Freak though, right?
I know, but they are like attached at the hip, you know? They own like what I think 20 25%.
Let's keep going because Phil wants to take a shot at Supercell. It's not Mishka wants me to take a
Exact. No, no, no, no, no. You took a shot. And I want to I want to understand where this is coming from because I open up LinkedIn. He tags me to this goddamn assault. So, the main points that Phil has are good. There's two main points. It's been 2 years since the game Squadbusters launched. And not only have the metrics not improved despite few overhauls, but they've actually worsened. And it's clear from the graph. and he says that Supercell needs to grow Squadbuster before it becomes something far more costly which is a resource

vampire referencing to the many games in development and the many games that they have live. So understandable notes but then I'm going to add few quotes from this LinkedIn post. Quote one, Squadbusters is Supercell's first flop revealing that they failed at the IPO test. Quote two, corporatism seems to have fully embraced Supercell. Mind you, the CEO of Supercell is tagged also in this post. Quote three, what was one of Supercell's greatest strengths, moving on from projects, will now become one of its greatest weaknesses. Quote four, Moo, which has had one of the most underwhelming, confusing, and bamboozling launches, second only to Squadbusters. And last quote, the North American studio appears to have still produced Jack Squad and Supercell X has embraced Area 51 branding. Nothing goes in or out.

What the [ __ ]
Whoa, there was some positive there's some positive things in there that I applauded them for taking the risk of these launches. You know, I've been debating going and doing, you know, there was the Squadbusters post, there was the Squadbusters one month later, and you know, I've been I was debating a Squadbusters one year later, and the ultimate reality is just no one cares. And when I was writing the one month later post, you know, we said down, but not out. And I think we can finally say down and out. But the thing I raised when we did that one month later was that I was very concerned that as Supercell started to grow and become more corporate and all of the corporate politics started to enter the company that this would become a resource vampire and they would struggle to move on from it. Right? We talked about the game deaths which aren't really game deaths, the champagne popping. I was thinking about how much all this really really seems to bother me. And it really seems to bother me because there's two pieces. There's Squadbusters piece and I think there's the broader Supercell piece. But Supercell is a shining city on a hill for all of us, right? And we always talk about they don't they don't owe us jack [ __ ] But the reality is is that they are trying to IPO. It's very

obvious they're trying to IPO and they've pivoted this company. The Supercell is dead. There is no more Supercells. That whole concept is fried. And what I keep waiting for Ilkut to put in his letter for him to embrace is what this new Supercell is going to look like. This is where Supercell needs leadership the most, right? This is where they need someone to tighten the ship and to make tough choices in a corporation because here's the reality, right? Squadbusters got shipped to the London team. And they always used to talk about that game teams themselves kill games. But now that you're in a corporation, there's all these politics. They're not quite sure, you know, if we choose to kill this game, where do we go? Do we get laid off? All those things are very real reality checks that Supercell is now going to have to deal with. And they need to kill squadbusters to set the tone that like this is what happens. Sometimes games don't succeed and we need to move on from them. Ilka's letter was talking about we're not taking enough risks launching stuff. We're not doing new stuff, you know, in terms of how we launch Squadbusters, how we launch Moco. And again, I I I'm so with him on this. Like I really applaud

them for making these efforts. But now the risk is you need to be able to move on from these things. And what happens is that weakness hides in numbers. And this is a great example of it. You're 2 years into this game. You're two years into this game. You've done multiple game overhauls and the KPIs have worsened. The deer has been shot and is wounded and someone needs to put it out of its misery because Squadbusters doesn't deserve this. It doesn't deserve this. It deserves to die an honorable death and now it's just like bleeding and bleeding and bleeding. And I can imagine if you're a person on that team, you're looking at those dashboards. You're looking at the fact that this is.1% of Supercell's portfolio and you're starting to have uncertainty about what the future looks like. And so they need to be able to kill this thing and move on. And ultimately, Ilka needs I would argue to step up and not become the world's least powerful CEO, but to figure out how corporatism is going to work in scoping. And corporatism is a bad word, but it's the reality of scaling. It's the reality of trying to get these things in a place where you can have Clash Royale make a bajillion dollars. And so, I'm just hoping for more leadership and more reality checks about where they are and what they need

to do to get to the next step. It's just been really disappointing. North America, what the [ __ ] is going on over there? Like it's been what 10 years? What is Super What? Like I mean again they don't owe us anything but these things are hiding on the P&L. And if you want to make games that are remembered forever, go do that. Swatbusters is not going to be remembered forever. And take it from your number one fan. Take it from the guy who thought this had the biggest potential in terms of downloads at all. It's time to put this thing to rest. It deserves an honorable death. Give it that honorable death. And now you have to answer the tough questions, right? What are you going to do with this London team? Are they going to be laid off? Are they going to move to other teams? Those are tough questions and a CEO needs to answer that, not anyone else. A CEO.
My god, thank you, Braveheart. I felt like like the Braveheart music needs to be playing behind you during that speech. I don't think I've ever heard Phil so impassion.
I It's just they're so important to all of us and I'm just so frustrated that they they seem to have their blinders on when it comes to some of this stuff. It's time to step up. If you're serious about building games that are remember

forever, if you're serious about IPOing, like put on your big boy pants and let's go. Let's get this done and let's make hard choices. And it's going to be a series of hard choices for Superell get to IPO because remember Brawl Stars is down again, right? And the saving grace is that Clash Royale is up. But the portfolio is not looking good. You don't want to IPO with two duds. You want to be growing. You want to have a great
Last game that you shipped last game that you shipped big was 2018. Yes.
But hey, you're opening up AI labs in every sitting
and boy.
And also they use the word layoff. It's called sparked now. So you get sparked.
Oh boy.
Basically a rebranding.
No, no, I'm just kidding. Basically like you get it. A lot of new people go into this
new game development which is in a different building often and that's where you spark it out.
Either you succeed or you move out.
Well, I think we should wrap it here. I will not see you next week. I'll see you in like three or four weeks. The guys will see you next week.
All right.
We will run the show to the ground.
Jen.
Yeah.

You're going to come back. You're going to be all about attribution. I'm looking forward. It's going to be like a beautiful mind moment. You're going to see all the numbers. It's going to all make sense now. Direct response advertising.
They're going to like take like tech and like implant it right here. And then I'm going to plug into the matrix and then I'm going to start talking like Phil and say attribution. And yeah, it'll be it'll be awesome. They start start [ __ ] posting and fire speeches on LinkedIn.
All right, goodbye everybody.
Just become Phil. All right, bye guys.
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