Which Games Hit Big in Steam's June 2024 Next Fest?

This analysis examines the performance of upcoming video games during the June 2024 Steam Next Fest and concurrent "not-E3" summer showcases. By tracking Steam follower growth, concurrent users (CCU), and wishlist estimates, the data identifies which titles are generating the most significant market friction ahead of their releases. The scope covers approximately 1,800 demos featured during the June 10–17 festival, alongside a broader analysis of 100 high-performing titles from major June press events like the Xbox Showcase and Summer Game Fest.

The primary finding identifies Once Human as the breakout success of Next Fest, leading in unique players, new followers (14,200), and peak concurrent users (19,500). The data suggests a growing trend of high-fidelity, "AAA-adjacent" 3D survival and colony management games, such as The Alters and Level Zero: Extraction, dominating player interest. Conversely, "cozy" titles like Tiny Glade—which surpassed one million total wishlists—and established IP like Metal Slug Tactics demonstrate that specialized niches and strong art direction remain viable paths to visibility.

Beyond the festival, the "not-E3" period saw massive wishlist spikes for major productions. Black Myth: Wukong is estimated to have added 850,000 wishlists in a single week, bringing its total to approximately four million, largely driven by Chinese interest. Major platform exclusives like Doom: The Dark Ages and Fable also saw six-figure wishlist growth following their reveals.

Methodologically, the analysis relies on a proprietary database that converts Steam follower growth into wishlist estimates, typically using a multiplier of 15x to 20x during major promotional events. The findings also highlight the necessity of data integrity, noting that Valve recently banned certain publishers for using bots to artificially inflate demo CCU. Overall, the industry landscape shows a tightening market where high-GDP indie developers face increased difficulty securing multi-million dollar funding, even as consumer interest in self-expression and creative gameplay rises.