Plus: You Get a Steam Sales Estimate, You Get...

This analysis provides a comprehensive overview of current sales trends and performance metrics across major gaming platforms, including Steam, PlayStation, Xbox, Nintendo Switch, Epic Games Store (EGS), Meta Quest, and Apple Arcade. The primary focus is the introduction of a new review-based sales estimation feature for Steam games, which utilizes a modified version of the VGInsights methodology to provide "smell test" data for industry professionals.

Key findings highlight the performance of several high-profile May 2022 releases. My Time at Sandrock demonstrated a strong debut with 19,000 concurrent users (CCU), largely driven by a dedicated Chinese player base. Sniper Elite 5 also saw significant upfront engagement with 12,500 CCU, though mixed reviews suggest potential concerns for its long-term sales tail. In the console and VR sectors, Evil Dead: The Game emerged as a top performer on both PlayStation and Xbox, while Vampire: The Masquerade - Bloodhunt maintained its lead in the free-to-play category on PlayStation.

The methodology for Steam sales estimates relies on review-to-sales multipliers, with specific adjustments made for the first week of launch to account for delayed player feedback. The analysis notes that while "profile sampling" methods used by other sites can be accurate, they often overcount owners due to unplayed keys from bundles like Humble Choice. For VR, a multiplier of 110x the number of new star ratings is used to estimate buyer numbers on the Meta Quest store.

Geographically, the data emphasizes the growing influence of Chinese development teams and consumers on Steam. Looking ahead, the analysis identifies upcoming titles like Captain of Industry and Souldiers as high-potential releases based on follower counts and genre popularity. The report concludes that while shadow-dropping games at full price is generally risky, titles with dedicated fanbases, such as Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix+, can still achieve significant success through this strategy.