2019 Predictions: There Is a Billion to be Made in the Wake of Machine Zone

The mobile strategy game market, a critical segment of the mid-core genre, is undergoing a significant transition as established leaders face decline and new publishers capture market share. By analyzing the top 500 mobile games—excluding the Chinese, Japanese, and Korean markets—the analysis identifies three primary subcategories: 4X, Build & Battle, and Synchronous Battlers. The central thesis posits that while the category remains highly competitive, substantial revenue opportunities exist for developers who can master user acquisition, live operations, and the integration of diverse mechanics.

In the 4X subcategory, the decline of Machine Zone has created a vacuum filled by companies like IGG and FunPlus. Success in this space is increasingly driven by two distinct strategies: maintaining a singular, high-performing flagship title or building a platform to launch multiple reskinned titles that target specific demographics. Key findings indicate that theme and art style are the most vital differentiators for marketability, with intellectual property (IP) playing an increasingly important role in attracting players. Titles like Lords Mobile have demonstrated that incorporating RPG elements and complex meta-systems can effectively expand the genre's reach.

Conversely, the Build & Battle and Synchronous Battler subcategories remain dominated by Supercell. While Clash of Clans continues to lead in Build & Battle, its market share is slowly eroding as competitors introduce innovative mechanics. In the Synchronous Battler space, Supercell maintains a near-monopoly with Clash Royale; high-profile attempts by other publishers to enter this space have largely failed to gain traction. The analysis concludes that future growth in the strategy sector will rely on improved user experience, the adoption of more casual themes, and the strategic use of IPs to appeal to a broader audience of adult males.