Unexpected Game Calculations in Educational Wargaming: Design Flaw or Beneficial to Learning?

Unexpected battle-outcome calculations in educational wargaming can either undermine or deepen learning, and this study argues that their value depends largely on how players respond to them. Drawing on roughly twenty hours of recorded sessions with eleven military cadets playing The Operational Art of War, the research examines how surprising combat results shape player attitudes. The central concern is a "Gamer Mode" stance, in which players reject the game's realism and pursue points rather than understanding, but the analysis also finds that the same surprises can prompt critical challenge and motivated inquiry into why outcomes occurred.

The evidence shows that small, frequent surprises are common, while a smaller number of significant events generate intense discussion and noticeable shifts in behavior. Two contrasting cases illustrate the range of responses. In one, a group dismissed the game's legitimacy after an artillery battalion was implausibly destroyed and turned to point-chasing. In another, a player accepted a poor judgment, reflected on tactics, and gained insight. The study's broader conclusion is that unexpected calculations are likely unavoidable given the stochastic, open-ended nature of wargaming, so the design question becomes less about eliminating them than about managing their effects.

The authors recommend handling these moments in the moment through informed instructors and peer discussion, with structured debriefing used to revisit them afterward. They also contend that exposure to friction and surprise is itself valuable preparation for real-world warfare, where outcomes frequently diverge from expectation. The scope is specific: a single wargame, a cadet population, and a limited set of recorded sessions, which bounds how broadly the findings can be generalized across educational or professional wargaming contexts.