No IDFA? No Problem! Apple Can’t Kill Gaming

Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) rollout and the loss of the IDFA have been framed as a "Ragnarok of Gaming," but this July 2021 opinion piece by Tiffany Keller, Director of Product for Subway Surfers at Sybo Games, argues the impact is real but manageable. Written as a rebuttal to marketing executive Brian Bowman's claims of 30-40% revenue drops and a collapse of value-optimization bidding, it offers an industry-insider view focused on mobile game user acquisition and ad monetization, with emphasis on iOS 14.5 and 14.6 and a mix of North American and global audiences.

The central argument is that gaming fares better than other sectors. AppsFlyer data puts average ATT opt-in at 47%, ranging from 39% for casino to 51% for midcore, well above the 20% global figure cited elsewhere. Because many users were already untrackable through GDPR, CCPA, COPPA, and Limited Ad Tracking, ATT adds only about 20-30% more untrackable iOS players. For small ad-dependent studios, where iOS is often only about 20% of the audience, ATT moves just 5-10% of users into limited-tracking status. Their CPMs fall by up to 40%, but higher CPMs among remaining IDFA users and Android competition offset much of that, so losses are typically in the single digits and some studios may even earn slightly more.

The practical recommendations center on adapting rather than resisting. Studios should run separate contextual campaigns and publisher segments for limited-tracking users, use header bidding and contextual signals, and build contextual-friendly iOS ad stacks while stoking Android competition. Value optimization remains workable with up to 64 coded conversion events, though data is less rich. Native Facebook ads and organic ASO, including A/B testing, matter more, as shown by Project Makeover's rise. Hypercasual and casino took the largest iOS download declines, though Android largely made up the revenue.

The piece also assesses first-party strategies. IDFV-based cross-promotion across a portfolio could supply only about 15% of installs in other titles, and works best with genre-aligned portfolios or strong segmentation tech. Zynga's Chartboost acquisition lowers costs and enriches data but does not grant access to third-party IDFAs. The article concludes that doomsday rhetoric is unwarranted, since a market for user acquisition persists as long as players spend.