How to Crack the Match 3 Code: Project Makeover

Project Makeover, launched in November 2020 by Magic Tavern and publisher AppLovin, is presented as the first realization of forecasts made across a four-part series on where the Match 3 genre is heading. Guest author Om Tandon, a UX strategist, argues that the next chart-breaking Match 3 title would rely on fashion and makeup themes and on four must-have design pillars, the last being storytelling. The game's quick climb into the top six grossing charts, alongside Candy Crush Saga and Homescapes, is offered as evidence.

The market context is 2020 mobile data: casual games earned roughly $9.8B, of which Match 3 accounted for $3.7B. Classic Match 3 grew only about 5% year over year, despite a COVID-driven uplift of up to 30% across genres, compared with 57% growth for meta Match 3. Classic publishers are leaning on ad monetization, which the author considers a stopgap, noting that Playrix became the largest Match 3 publisher by in-app purchase revenue. Classic Match 3 is framed as a saturated red ocean, with meta Match 3 as the open blue ocean. Because casual players have lower lifetime value and less loyalty than strategy players, a new entrant must widen the player funnel by drawing audiences from adjacent genres, as the fashion theme does.

Three distinctions are said to set the game apart. It is a Meta Heavy Match 3, with three meta loops (makeup, dress-up, decoration) outweighing a core loop that mainly generates soft currency, a balance Magic Tavern's CEO describes as intentional. It also mixes predictable rewards with unanticipated ones such as mystery boxes, personal dresses, and grooming items, to counter reward saturation. Finally, it offers a conflict-driven story with an arch villain and episodic, soap-style video content. The theme echoes Project Runway without licensing an IP, and chapter-based progression resembles Property Brothers rather than a saga or 3D map.

The author's predictions for late 2021 include more well-funded developers launching Match 3 games that break the conventional formula, few new classic hits, and a need for elder-game features that reduce dependence on the content treadmill. He also expects user acquisition to remain decisive, with more publisher-backed satellite studios and mergers and acquisitions, and a continued dilution of core in favor of meta.