How I Did Competitive Analysis for My Next Game

Key insights

4 slides

Market reality

Indie developers need data-driven analysis to assess commercial viability.

Focusing on empirical sales data helps identify realistic revenue expectations and uncover successful titles without traditional marketing support.

Key insight. Competitive analysis should prioritize raw sales data over industry hype.

Data filtering

Filtering large Steam datasets by specific tags isolates direct competitors.

This process narrows down a broad catalog of over 41,000 entries to a manageable cohort of relevant titles.

Method step. To determine genre viability, filter large Steam datasets by specific tags to isolate a manageable cohort of direct competitors.

41,589

Total entries in the initial Steam dataset.

Relevant titles after filtering: 42

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Summary

The primary purpose of this analysis is to provide a structured, data-driven framework for indie game developers to evaluate the commercial viability of a specific genre before entering pre-production. By shifting focus from industry hype to empirical sales data, developers can identify realistic revenue expectations and uncover successful titles that lack traditional marketing support. The core thesis is that quantitative filtering of Steam’s catalog, combined with targeted qualitative research, allows developers to mitigate risk and better understand the expectations of their target audience.

The methodology utilizes a large-scale dataset of Steam games, applying the Boxleiter/Birkett method to estimate lifetime revenue. By filtering for specific tags—such as 2D and rogue-like—the analysis narrows a broad catalog of over 41,000 entries down to a manageable cohort of 42 relevant titles. This process revealed a significant disparity between mean and median performance, with the cohort showing an average projected lifetime revenue of $367,740 and a median of $111,696. These figures serve as a benchmark for scoping future development efforts.

Beyond raw financial data, the approach emphasizes qualitative assessment, including hands-on playtesting, review analysis, and investigation into the marketing strategies of both over-performing and under-performing titles. The scope is limited to the Steam platform, focusing on the 2D platformer rogue-like sub-genre. The analysis concludes that while data is essential for strategic planning, developers must guard against analysis paralysis by time-boxing research efforts to ensure that market insights directly inform, rather than delay, the actual production of the game.