Wishlist Inflation Is Real, but You Still Need Them

The analysis confirms that wishlist inflation is a measurable phenomenon within the Steam ecosystem, characterized by a decline in the conversion rate of wishlists to unit sales over time. By comparing data from 160 games released between 2020 and 2025, the findings reveal that games released in the 2023–2025 period sold approximately half as many units per wishlist at launch compared to those released during the 2020–2022 period. This trend is attributed to several factors, including Valve’s efforts to simplify the wishlisting process, the proliferation of virtual festivals that generate low-conversion wishlists, and a broader industry-wide increase in marketing proficiency among developers.

Despite this inflation, the analysis concludes that total wishlist counts remain a primary and reliable predictor of launch-day sales performance. Statistical correlation tests, including R-squared and Spearman correlation, demonstrate that the predictive power of wishlists has remained largely stable across both time periods. Furthermore, the study evaluates the concept of "wishlist velocity"—the number of wishlists earned in the 30 days prior to launch—and finds that it does not outperform total wishlist counts as a metric for forecasting success.

The methodology relies on a survey of 160 Steam titles, segmented into two cohorts: 34 games from 2020–2022 and 126 games from 2023–2025. While the data suggests that individual wishlists are objectively less valuable today than in previous years, they continue to serve as a critical indicator for developers. The findings emphasize that while the market environment has shifted, the fundamental necessity of accumulating wishlists as a marketing objective remains unchanged.