2016 Predictions for Mobile Gaming

Mobile gaming analyst Eric Seufert's end-of-2015 outlook argues that 2016 will be shaped by three trends from the prior year: app marketplace saturation making downloads harder to win, a resulting emphasis on cross promotion as a defensive tool for retaining users, and video advertising making light, viral "gimmick" apps commercially viable. Marketing strategy, he contends, now informs game design rather than the reverse, a point illustrated by a four-quadrant framework presented at GDC Europe. He also links cross promotion's value to Activision's acquisition of King and expects further sector consolidation.

Six predictions follow, grouped under Top Grossing charts and Discovery. First, growing ad revenue will blur the tiers of the app economy, since grossing charts exclude advertising; an app ranked beyond 100th could out-earn one ranked 20th to 30th, which may encourage more experimental design. Second, one of the perennial Western top grossers (Candy Crush Saga, Game of War, Clash of Clans) will permanently leave the Top 10, as their spiritual successors (Candy Crush Soda Saga, Mobile Strike, Boom Beach) capture churn. Third, at some point no game will occupy a Top 5 US iPhone grossing slot; after Black Friday 2015, Spotify and Pandora held two of the top five spots, and YouTube reached fourth days later.

Fourth, a Chinese developer, likely backed by a conglomerate such as Tencent, will sustain a Top 20 grossing position in major Western iOS markets, building on heavy investment in Western studios. Fifth, more highly viral apps will come from outside Silicon Valley, as with Dubsmash (Germany), Ketchapp (France), Crossy Road (Australia), and Trivia Crack (Argentina), because limited capital pushes developers toward organic growth and Bay Area costs favor large companies. Sixth, discovery will shift toward non-platform communities, driven by Product Hunt, mobile eSports, and influencer campaigns. This could give small developers inexpensive footholds, though it is unlikely to deliver the scale venture-backed freemium titles require.