GameDiscoverCo
GameDiscoverCo is a game industry analysis firm and newsletter run by Simon Carless. It publishes data-driven articles, reports and videos on how players find and buy video games, with a focus on Steam and PC releases.
Documents
Why You May Be Underpricing Your Video Game
Many independent video game developers significantly undervalue their products at launch, a strategic error that undermines long-term revenue potential.
- Independent developers should target a base price of $20 USD or 18 EUR for standard releases to maximize long-term revenue potential.
- Consumer purchasing decisions are driven more by visibility, community engagement, and marketing than by the base price of the game.
- Launching at a higher price point is a superior strategy because it allows for more effective promotional discounting to capture price-sensitive segments.
Game Stores: You Need More Real-Time Charts
The primary thesis of this analysis is that digital game storefronts should adopt more agile, real-time charting mechanisms to improve game discoverability.
- Steam’s algorithm-driven, real-time charts effectively allow games to gain visibility based on sales velocity, contrasting with the editorial-heavy models of console storefronts.
- Nintendo, Xbox, and PlayStation rely on manual curation and traditional publisher relationships, which often prevents independent titles from breaking out organically.
- As of August 2019, console storefronts largely operate under a legacy retail-first model rather than the data-driven, engineer-led approach utilized by Steam.
Steam's Follower Counts: Hidden in Plain Sight
Steam follower counts serve as a critical, publicly accessible metric for gauging the potential commercial performance of video games on the platform.
- Steam follower counts serve as a reliable proxy for pre-launch momentum, with a functional rule of thumb estimating first-week sales at approximately 2.5 times the total follower count.
- Games with fewer than 1,000 followers typically struggle to gain market traction, while titles with tens of thousands of followers indicate the baseline interest needed for medium-to-large-scale releases.
- Follower counts provide a transparent, publicly accessible metric for gauging commercial potential that complements private wishlist data.
Discoverability: A 'Hot or Not?' Genre Guide
This analysis evaluates the commercial viability of various video game genres in the 2019 market, providing strategic guidance for developers and investors seeking to maximize return on investment.
- Multiplayer-centric games carry high financial risk because they require large, simultaneous player counts to prevent negative community sentiment and demand constant content updates.
- Games under five hours in length struggle to command the $20 to $30 price point often required for indie developer profitability.
- Roguelites and titles featuring procedural generation remain strong commercial performers due to their high perceived depth and replayability.
Plus: How Did Those Big Steam Debuts Do?
This analysis examines the performance of major PC and console game launches during a high-traffic period in September 2023.
- Technical stability is the primary driver of player sentiment, as evidenced by Payday 3's 'Mostly Negative' reviews due to server failures despite 78,000 peak CCU, compared to Lies of P's 'Very Positive' reception with a stable launch.
- Party Animals recorded the highest Steam debut among the analyzed titles with over 104,000 peak CCU, though it faced criticism for its lack of an offline mode.
- Mortal Kombat 1 demonstrated strong multi-platform performance, maintaining high CCU on PC while securing a top-three position on U.S. PlayStation digital sales charts.
The Three Eras of Game Discoverability
The evolution of video game discoverability is defined by three distinct eras, each presenting unique challenges for developers navigating the transition from physical retail to saturated digital marketplaces.
- The current era of game discoverability, beginning in 2014, is defined by peak digital saturation where approximately 25 to 30 new games are released on Steam every day.
- Modern developers face a market where the sheer volume of competing content has replaced the lack of quality as the primary barrier to commercial success.
- Platform algorithms and editorial features no longer provide guaranteed exposure, necessitating a shift away from reliance on storefront visibility toward sophisticated, proactive marketing strategies.
The One Thing You Should Care About When Launching Your Game
The primary thesis regarding the commercial viability of premium, non-free-to-play games on Steam is that pre-launch wishlist counts serve as the most reliable indicator of future sales performance.
- Pre-launch wishlist counts on Steam are the most reliable indicator of a premium game's future commercial performance.
- A game with 1,000 wishlists at launch typically generates 500 sales in the first week and 2,500 in the first year.
- A game with 10,000 wishlists at launch typically generates 5,000 sales in the first week and 25,000 in the first year.
It's OK: The Meh-ening of Indie Console Game Sales
The primary thesis of this analysis is that the era of "console versions saving a game" is ending for independent developers.
- Console versions are no longer a reliable growth driver for independent developers, as unit sales often barely cover the cost of porting.
- On the Nintendo Switch eShop, a top 200 launch typically yields 10,000 to 20,000 initial sales, but daily volume frequently collapses to fewer than 50 copies within 30 days.
- Indie games comprise 95% of the Steam library but generate only 40% of units sold and 28% of total revenue.
Nightmare Reaper: Doing a 1.0 Steam Release the Right Way
The transition from Early Access to a 1.0 full release on Steam represents a critical inflection point for indie developers.
- A successful 1.0 launch can drive massive momentum, as evidenced by Nightmare Reaper selling 10,400 units in six days—50% of its total volume accumulated over three years of Early Access.
- Strategic marketing for the 1.0 release, including a 70-streamer Twitch event and high-reach YouTube coverage, helped nearly double the game's wishlist from 39,000 to 75,000.
- Maintaining an 'Overwhelmingly Positive' review status throughout the development cycle is essential for securing long-term discoverability and consumer trust.
Deep Dive: Turning Around Your Game's Reviews, Post-Launch
This analysis examines the critical role of expectation management and post-launch support in rehabilitating a video game’s commercial and critical standing.
- Long-term commercial success relies on aligning pre-launch marketing with actual gameplay to prevent the negative review cycles caused by mismatched player expectations.
- Developers can rehabilitate a 'Mixed' Steam rating through transparent communication and iterative updates, as demonstrated by Robotality’s turnaround of the 2019 title Pathway.
- Significant content expansions, such as the 'Adventures Wanted' update for Pathway, are necessary to address core gameplay loops and technical issues that drive negative sentiment.