Slow-Motion Slump in Scopely’s Portfolio

[Music] Okay, news from Mobile Gamer Biz from our friend Mr. Neil Long about some money that Hasbro is earning from Monopoly Go, which is interesting in and of itself. They expect to earn Hasbboro 14 million a month from the game through the end of fiscal year 2025, which I think gives you a nice sense of what life is like as a license or sitting back earning the royalty fees, which is great for Hasbro. But this is also a chance for us to like just check back in on the scope portfolio. And due to my new sensor tower R package, which I didn't get to show last week, check it out on GitHub, which I put together. I was able to pull all of man of scoples games and we can kind of look at them year-to- date from 2023, 2024 and 2025. And this graph when you look at their portfolio across their key titles, I think has a number of interesting stories about where Scopley has been.

The first one that really jumps out at you is that they are down in nearly every single game and every single KPI. So topline revenue year-to date from 2024 to 2025 is down 28%. Average MAU is down 24% and downloads are down 34%. So even when we think about like ads and web shops, some of those usual arguments we hear and those are nice like those those are nice margins to take but that should be reflected in downloads and average MAU if it was compensating for that because you would be bidding on UA at a consistent level and we don't see that be the case here or LTBS would be higher. So the fact that we don't see that is troubling. The only franchise that has had any like like meager amount of growth at scale is Mon uh excuse me, Pokemon Go at 2%. But Monopoly Go is down 36% year-to date, year-over-year. So in 2024, they had made 1.1 billion by now and 2025 they've only made 700 million by now. It is also around 60 to 65% of the portfolio revenue. So like

when this thing sneezes, Scopi is going to catch a cold. It's just the reality here. Pokemon Go is now suddenly the number two title in their portfolio at 2002 $250 million. I mean that is basically their portfolio now. 90 what 90 92% of their revenue is Monopoly Go and Pokémon Go. Like everything else just became irrelevant. And so when you go through portfolio you look at like all these source spots these bets that you thought were going to pay out. Like Stumble Guys, remember they bought that from that small finish team. It's just declined. It's declined across every single KPI. It looks it's a downward pointing arrow. Star Trek Fleet Command has really collapsed. That was really tough to watch here. It's only made $22 million up until now in 2025. In 2024, it had done $28 million. And a year before that, it was at $43 million. So, it's not looking like it's in a great place. And again, I understand web shops, people on the PC skew, but it's still I, you know, I'd expect to see more changes in MAU and downloads that would be more consistent with that. You

look at Garden Joy, you remember that? That was one of their acquisitions. I think it was was Burlington Games. Uh, you know, they gave them money. That hasn't really turned into anything. Scrabble Go, it felt like that was a layup, right? We're going after the Zinga property, right? Like we're going to go after that with the Scrabble franchise. I mean, that sounds like a layup that didn't end up turning into anything.
Yeah. Don't get me started. Scrabble has never been able to beat Words with Friends, sadly, as somebody who made the original OG Scrabble game. Yeah, Scrabble's a tough one.
And from what I understand, like they tried to scale Strikeforce and it really didn't play the way they expected it to and it's really hit all-time lows. The franchise is really struggling right now. It's still their number three game surprisingly. And just one last shout out to Yatsi with Buddies, Walter, the CEO's favorite game of all time, which continues to deliver like steady revenue, like 24 million. Like what is it going to do? Maybe 50 million on AP this this year. You know, you add in ad revenue. That's Wow. Those 60-year-old

women in Iowa playing these casual games are there's always more of them. Yeah.
And it's it's the best argument for pay to win that's ever been made is in Yatsu with Buddies. A formula that goes like underexamined. You literally just buy bonus rolls. You're literally buying win percentage.
Yeah. Yeah.
Same thing for match three games.
Uh but this remember this is also PvP. You be playing against other people. Technically, you are as well in match three games.
Nope. Nope. It's a PvE environment. Nope. Sorry, Jen.
I mean, I do. I I'm in all kinds of clan battles.
Sure. There's lava quests. There's meta layers. I mean, sure, but all that's usually bots, too, at this point.
No, I got it.
Okay. I have a few comments. one the only adjustment I would make to this is like likely they're thinking of it Pokemon Go is incremental revenue for this year because it's inorganic growth right because it's an acquisition so in that way they can say to their Saudi you

know overlords that the business isn't as bad as you're suggesting right does that make sense Phil
yeah you can just say look at we bought a revenue stream and then we add it to the money and we make more money see happy
yeah yeah exactly That's not a very compelling argument.
I know. I know. But that's what inorganic growth means really, right? So, the other part of this is that I people are kind of blowing this thing up is that Casbo suggested that they're making basically equal royalties for this year 14 million a month, right, for the rest of the year. Suggesting that they're kind of like stable revenue on Monopoly Go. That is not the case, right? Monopoly Go is down. is down significantly despite the success on the stores outside of the app stores, but they are likely more profitable because they're spending far less money on UA. And that's why the royalty for Hasbbo can be at that the same range for the rest of the year. I just want to be clear on this point. And despite all the money that they're blowing on TV ads for no [ __ ] reason,

you know, they're still more profitable because the UA spend was so insane for this game, like 500 million. Like, I don't know. I wonder what the number is for the full year of launch. I mean it must have been insane. I think it was 500 for the first le year and probably more than 500 for the next. I don't know
once that UA spend became unprofitable they spent less, right? And so I I likely that Hasbro is making money on the margin, not necessarily on the revenue per se. So there we go. But overall I think they need to get buy more product or make more product. One of the two, right? You know, like keep the growth going, the story going. I mean Monopoly Go is so huge that like it is really really hard to grow from that level, right? So
yeah, I mean we are seeing just a change in tactics based off of the life cycle. It kind of went goes back to the beginning of our chat when I was talking about Farmville. When you're on a game that's been out for multiple years, you you start to have to change your tactics. And so what they're doing is, you know, trying to maintain their

existing players, trying to launch new features and events to keep everyone inside the game so they don't have to keep acquiring new people. And they're trying to move their spenders to the Tycoon Club web shop, which if I don't know if you've done it, is a very seamless experience inside of the app where you get loyalty reward points for spending through that version of the web shop and not the main one. And I think, you know, we all know that we've heard between 20 and 50% of purchases have been moving to web shops, depending on the game. We don't know what it is on Monopoly Go. It does seem like it's starting to edge up to be kind of a higher percentage of that. I think a lot of it, Crest, to your point, is that they used to have to do marketing deductions. Yeah.
Depending on UA spend, right? And so, to your point, if UA spend is coming down, they are spending on TV and other places. that's not going to be to the same amount, then those deductions go down, which could also mean more margin

for Hasbro. So, I agree with you likely that is starting to be the case that you you're getting more margin on the web shops. There's less UA to take a deduction on and you know, so that I think that's part of the answer.
Their effective rates going up. Their effective royalty rate is going up.
Yeah, I'm agreeing with you on on that point. And then for for the next thing for you to [ __ ] on, they they've started their next kind of TV and and by the way, when their TV campaigns aren't necessarily TV campaigns, there are 360 marketing campaigns that happen to have a TV spot, but a majority of this is building new UA creative that goes out on traditional UA channels. You know, as a reminder, what they've told me, what Ben said is that for the last campaign, nine of the 10 talk creatives six months later were from these type of experiences. And so, it's just it's a way to get brand new refresh creative to try to get a new audience. They're doing a '9s sitcom theme, which, you know, it

tells you who the consumer is. It's people who have nostalgia for 90s. So, anyway, that's my wrap up on uh on Monopoly. It's [Music]