Paid Game Revenue Falls to All-Time Low on the App Store: Is Apple Arcade Having an Impact?

The premium mobile gaming market on the Apple App Store has experienced a sustained, long-term decline, reaching an all-time low in revenue share by late 2019. As of September 30, 2019, paid games accounted for only 1.8 percent of total App Store game revenue, a significant drop from the 5.4 percent share recorded in 2015. In absolute terms, premium game revenue fell from $641.9 million in 2015 to $475.7 million in 2018, with 2019 year-to-date figures reaching approximately $337.3 million.

This downward trend is mirrored in the volume of new releases. Premium game launches plummeted from 39,705 in 2014—representing 26.1 percent of all new game releases—to just 3,255 in 2019, or 7.3 percent of the total. Furthermore, the overall catalog of paid games has shrunk, falling from 43.6 percent of the total App Store game library in 2014 to 12.9 percent by September 2019. This contraction was partially influenced by Apple’s 2018 transition to 64-bit application requirements.

The analysis evaluates whether the introduction of Apple Arcade, a subscription-based service, has negatively impacted the broader premium market. Data indicates that the launch of Apple Arcade did not cause a significant chilling effect on other premium iOS games. While revenue for paid games dipped by approximately 13 percent during the month following the service's launch, this decline is largely attributed to seasonal trends, as similar year-over-year fluctuations occurred in 2018. Overall, premium game revenue remained relatively stable during the launch period compared to the previous year. The study covers global App Store data from January 2014 through October 2019, excluding the Chinese market.