2019 Predictions: Pokemon Go Will Get a Magical Rival

The mobile gaming industry in 2019 faces a landscape where location-based games (LBGs) remain dominated by a single incumbent, while pure augmented reality (AR) titles struggle to gain traction. The analysis, which utilizes data from Sensor Tower covering the top 500 games globally—excluding China, Japan, and South Korea—concludes that AR-first games are currently at a nascent stage, hindered by low device penetration and high user friction. Significant growth in this sector is unlikely until wearable technology, such as AR glasses, achieves widespread consumer adoption.

In contrast, the LBG sub-genre has matured significantly since the launch of Pokémon Go. Despite the entry of high-quality competitors like Jurassic World Alive, The Walking Dead: Our World, and Ghostbusters World, none have successfully challenged Niantic’s market supremacy, which held an 84% share of downloads and a 92% share of revenue as of late 2018. The analysis attributes Pokémon Go’s sustained dominance to the immense global reach of its intellectual property, superior search interest, and a more balanced international revenue distribution compared to its competitors, which remain heavily skewed toward the United States market.

Looking ahead, the industry expects Niantic to maintain its leadership position, particularly with the anticipated launch of Harry Potter: Wizards Unite. While this new title is projected to expand the overall LBG market, it also presents a risk of cannibalizing the existing player base of Pokémon Go due to significant demographic overlap. Ultimately, the LBG category remains highly dependent on powerful, globally recognized intellectual property and the ability to innovate on core collection-based gameplay loops.