Data-Driven Analysis Platform for Indie Mobile Game Publishing

The document introduces a novel data-driven analysis platform, F2PAP (Free to Play Analysis Platform), designed to empower independent mobile game developers in navigating the complexities of publishing. The core thesis posits that while self-publishing platforms are prevalent, indie developers often lack the expertise in data analysis, marketing, and business evaluation necessary for success. The F2PAP aims to bridge this gap by providing clear, actionable guidance that extends beyond traditional models like the ARM funnel.

The F2PAP platform, developed using the Design Science Research method and implemented with R ShinyApp, integrates "game content" as a critical variable alongside "channel promotion" to influence player behavior and revenue. Its architecture supports three primary functions: evaluating new version updates, assessing marketing promotions, and forecasting revenue. This comprehensive approach offers indie developers a robust toolset for data-driven decision-making.

Specifically, the platform facilitates the evaluation of marketing promotions by analyzing both marketing metrics (e.g., CPC, CPI) and in-game performance indicators (e.g., DAU, Paying Players) to optimize user acquisition strategies and budget allocation. For revenue forecasting, F2PAP employs the Holt-Winters prediction model, leveraging historical data to establish benchmarks and recommend strategies for sustainable revenue growth. The scope of this analysis is focused on the mobile free-to-play game segment, addressing the challenges faced by independent developers within this specific industry context.