When Will SKAN 4 Adoption Start Growing Again?

The primary objective of this analysis is to explain the recent decline in SKAN 4 adoption and forecast when growth will resume. After reaching a peak of 27% in late July 2023, SKAN 4 postbacks dropped to 9% by late August. This contraction is attributed to a critical conversion value (CV) reset bug within the SKAdNetwork framework, which caused attribution signals to zero out. In response, many major ad networks reverted their migration to SKAN 4 to avoid data loss, though some platforms, such as Unity and AppLovin, have maintained higher adoption rates.

The analysis identifies the resolution of the technical bug as a necessary but insufficient condition for renewed growth. Because the fix requires widespread adoption of updated iOS versions, the industry is currently in a holding pattern. While the fix is included in iOS 16.6, historical data suggests that mass adoption of new framework capabilities typically accelerates following major annual OS releases.

The outlook for the next inflection point is tied to the anticipated release of iOS 17 in September. Because major iOS updates historically drive rapid user adoption, the analysis concludes that SKAN 4 usage will likely begin to trend upward again in late September and throughout October. Until then, many networks are relying on a combination of SKAN 3 data and internal performance metrics to maintain measurement and optimization capabilities. The findings are based on proprietary measurement data from the Singular platform, which tracks industry-wide mobile app install postbacks.