Benchmarks: How Many Wishlists Can I Get From Steam Next Fest

This analysis provides benchmarks for Steam Next Fest (SNF) performance based on data from 182 survey responses regarding the February 2026 event. The primary objective is to help developers set realistic expectations for wishlist acquisition and evaluate their performance relative to industry peers. The findings emphasize that pre-festival momentum is the most significant predictor of success, with total pre-event wishlists showing a strong correlation (Spearman r = 0.825) to wishlists earned during the festival.

Performance is categorized into four tiers: Diamond (10,000+ wishlists), Gold (7,000–9,999), Silver (1,000–6,999), and Bronze (0–999). Data indicates that the Steam algorithm identifies top performers rapidly, typically within the first two days of the event. While all games receive a baseline of visibility initially, the algorithm quickly shifts impressions toward high-performing titles, effectively creating a "winner-take-all" environment where middle-tier visibility is minimal.

Key findings suggest that wishlist velocity—the rate at which a game accumulates wishlists—is a critical metric, though total accumulated wishlists remain the strongest indicator of potential success. Furthermore, the "Demo Conversion Rate" (the ratio of players who both played and wishlisted a demo) serves as a useful diagnostic tool, with a 20% conversion rate identified as a benchmark for success. However, low conversion rates in co-op titles may be an outlier due to the influence of "tastemaker" players who drive group engagement without individual wishlisting.

The analysis concludes that developers should prioritize launching demos well in advance of the festival to allow for iterative improvements and to build a substantial wishlist base. Maintaining a separate Steam page for the demo is recommended to facilitate player feedback and reviews. Ultimately, the data suggests that high wishlist counts and strong velocity are symptoms of a high-quality game, and developers are advised to focus on product quality and early, sustained marketing efforts rather than relying on last-minute strategies.