Benchmarks: Steam Next Fest

Key insights

5 slides

Event function

Steam Next Fest primarily amplifies existing momentum, rather than creating new discovery.

The festival serves as a tool to capitalize on existing interest. Games entering with fewer than 2,000 wishlists receive minimal visibility lift.

Key finding. Steam Next Fest does not create momentum for games starting from zero; it functions as a tool to capitalize on existing interest.

Performance correlation

A game's pre-festival success tier strongly predicts its performance during Steam Next Fest.

There is little evidence of games 'breaking out' from lower tiers to Diamond status during the event. Diamond-tier games typically entered with substantial existing followings.

Predictive power. The tier of success a game enters Steam Next Fest with is highly predictive of its exit tier.

Demo impact

Most users wishlist games without playing the demo, even for top-performing titles.

Only 32% of wishlists for Diamond-tier games came from users who played the demo. The majority of wishlists were generated without any gameplay.

It's like buying a book based on its cover and description, not necessarily reading the first chapter.

32%

Share of wishlists from demo players for Diamond-tier games.

Share of wishlists without demo play: 68%

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Summary

This analysis evaluates the performance of games during the February 2025 Steam Next Fest (SNF) to determine how the event impacts wishlist acquisition and visibility. Based on a survey of 208 developers—representing approximately 9.2% of the 2,244 participating titles—the findings indicate that SNF functions primarily as an amplifier for existing momentum rather than a catalyst for discovery. The data suggests that games entering the festival with fewer than 2,000 wishlists rarely achieve significant growth, as the platform’s algorithm favors titles that already demonstrate established market interest.

Key findings reveal a stark correlation between pre-festival wishlist counts and final performance. While Valve has implemented algorithmic changes to provide more equitable initial visibility, this exposure drops off rapidly for games that fail to convert impressions into wishlists during the first two days. Diamond-tier performers, which earned over 10,000 wishlists during the event, typically entered with substantial existing followings. Furthermore, the data highlights a counterintuitive trend: the vast majority of users wishlist games without playing the demo. This suggests that demos serve more as a requirement for platform visibility and a tool for content creators than as a direct conversion funnel for the average player.

The analysis concludes that developers should treat SNF as the final stage of a marketing campaign rather than a starting point. Recommendations include refining demos through smaller, genre-specific festivals prior to SNF, hosting demos on separate Steam pages to facilitate public feedback, and focusing on proactive marketing efforts like influencer outreach. Ultimately, the festival is most effective for developers who have already cultivated an audience, as it serves to capitalize on existing interest rather than creating it from scratch.