Aiming FY2018 Earnings Results: Difference Between Forecast and Actual

Key insights

6 takeaways

01
Aiming's FY2018 financial results significantly missed projections, with revenue at 7,314 million yen, 474 million yen below the 7,788 million yen forecast, leading to deeper operating, ordinary, and net losses.See it on page 1
02
The new title, Gestalt Odin, underperformed by failing to meet active user targets despite promotional spending, indicating difficulties in user acquisition within a competitive market.See it on page 2
03
Existing titles faced monetization challenges; Sword and Magic Logres: Ancient Goddesses did not see expected spending or conversion rates from new character classes, despite stable active users.See it on page 2
04
Caravan Stories' first-anniversary event successfully increased active users, but Aiming failed to monetize this expanded audience sufficiently.See it on page 2
05
The mobile gaming sector's volatility, characterized by high costs and unpredictable user engagement, was a key factor in the forecasting discrepancies.See it on page 2
06
Despite the FY2018 shortfall, Aiming did narrow its losses compared to the previous fiscal year, which had significantly higher deficits.See it on page 1

Summary

Aiming’s fiscal year 2018 financial results reveal a significant shortfall compared to the projections issued in October 2018. The company reported annual revenue of 7,314 million yen, falling 474 million yen short of the forecasted 7,788 million yen. Consequently, the company recorded an operating loss of 1,486 million yen, an ordinary loss of 1,509 million yen, and a net loss attributable to owners of the parent of 1,553 million yen, all of which represent deeper deficits than the initial guidance.

The primary driver for these results was the underperformance of both new and existing game titles. The newly launched title, Gestalt Odin, failed to meet active user targets despite planned promotional expenditures, as the company struggled to acquire new users in a highly competitive market. Simultaneously, established titles faced monetization challenges. While Sword and Magic Logres: Ancient Goddesses maintained stable active user counts, the implementation of new character classes failed to stimulate the expected levels of spending or conversion rates among players. Similarly, although the first-anniversary event for Caravan Stories successfully increased the active user base, the company was unable to generate sufficient monetization across that broader audience.

These findings reflect the volatility of the mobile gaming sector, where high development and marketing costs are often offset by unpredictable user engagement and spending patterns. Despite the negative variance, the 2018 results show a narrowing of losses compared to the previous fiscal year, during which the company reported significantly higher deficits. The data underscores the difficulty of forecasting revenue in a market where player behavior during anniversary events and competitive pressures frequently deviate from internal projections.