Can You Guess Which Game Is a Success?

Do you think you can guess the review count of a random game on Steam? I wrote a Chrome plugin that hides the real review count of a game and instead you see this right here. You get a multiple choice question with six possible answers and you have to guess how many reviews does this game have? How many reviews a game has is a very direct proxy for how successful a game is. So this game is kind of Can you just from looking at a game, can you guess how successful the game was? Let's play this one for example. So we're not allowed to look at the real review count. We have to guess how many reviews does it have. We are of course allowed to check out the price. It's free. It came out in 2025. Let's see if it has a trailer. [Music] Okay, this could already be a positive outlier. So there are not If you go to a random game on Steam game on Steam, usually they'll have very very little reviews. This one looks competently made. It's horror. So I will give this one 540

maybe. No, it has 146. So I was wrong with my guess there. So now you get the idea of the game and I also implemented this button here. Steam usually does not have this button. This next game button brings you to a completely random game on Steam. Let's see where it takes us. Sphere game epic. This alone is already interesting. Just the option to get to a random game on Steam. It really shows you how many, sorry to say it, trash games there are on Steam. And I have to give this a little asterisk here. Um this is a bit of a harsher video. I don't know how how else to frame this. Like we'll I'm not looking to shame any other developers or anything of the sort. I'll just be very very extremely honest, right? So obviously you have like a ball rolling game here. Something like this releasing that in 2021. I don't think it's going to do very well. I'm going to guess this has eight reviews.

And that is indeed correct. So this is this is not me hating on the developers. This is me just trying to guess the correct number. For example, for this one, I don't really even have to look at it too closely. I think this has zero reviews. And that is also correct. I'm sorry, it hurts me. It hurts. It really hurts me. And also just to be clear, I practice practice this game a little bit. Oh look, this is interesting. This could be a positive outlier. So the positive outliers are the real challenge. Because you can guess a lot of games right but just by clicking the lowest one. Most of the time it's just the lowest one. But the real challenges can you spot the positive outliers? I have a feeling this could be a positive outlier. Let's check out the trailer. By the way, in case the audio is muted anywhere in this video, that means I got copyright striked and I removed the audio. So if there's audio missing anywhere, don't worry.

[Music] So the trailer does not have sound effects, which is a bit suspicious. Let's check out the price. It's early access and it's 13 bucks. It came out in 2023. All right, so I'm pretty sure it's not four reviews. It might be 72 but I don't think so cuz it looks very competently done and it has a publisher. It has two publishers. So I think this one has probably 750 reviews or more. Story rich shooting game. Let's check out the other trailer. It's quite pretty.

I'm almost tempted to give it 6,000. By the way, you are of can of course try to guess along. I think I will lock in um I think I'mma go with 750. Who is the greatest rob? This is one, I think. Lock in your guess. It is indeed one. All right, next one. Blade funk. Ay ay ay ay ay. This is the lowest one. This is seven. I could of course make the game more difficult by making the numbers closer together but like the the idea of the game is not that you have to guess if it's like 500 or 400 reviews. That would be way harder but that's kind of not the point. I want to see if I can guess how successful a game is. And so guessing if it has 300 or 400 reviews, that's that's kind of not the point. Let's see. Let's see. Let's see. This one pretty sure is zero. Yep, okay. We got interesting on this

one. This is a bit more difficult. It looks better at first glance. It has trailers. It came out in 2022. It's 15 bucks. Let's check out the trailer. It's a twin stick shooter. Yeah. Yeah. I think if you're lucky, you're very lucky you got 71. I'mma be mean. I'mma guess seven. Lock in your answer. It is seven. It is it is really heartbreaking cuz you can see how much effort went into this game and then you get like seven reviews. But it's surprisingly it's like the subtle differences a lot of the time. Like it's really strange. I feel like after looking at a couple of games like this weird Steam game mode, I really feel like I can just tell when something didn't sell too well. Casino poker.

This one's only three bucks. And but the first screenshot we see looks absolutely garbage. I'mma say five, I think. Yeah. Next one. Amazing tower defense. This looks nice. [Music] Trailer doesn't have sound effects. Visually it's nice but we can't hear the sound effects. Um yeah, in close up it doesn't hold up as well anymore. It's free to play though. It's free to play and it published in 2021. So the fact that it's free to play makes me think that it's not zero. I think it's 68. Sorry. I'm going kind of too fast for you to to guess along with me. I hope you're still having fun here. Let's like this is like GeoGuessr but for a game developers. I really like it. Like I I played this for 4 hours yesterday in the evening. I was so addicted. It's so interesting to see all of these games. It's really

really interesting. So here we have special gave special agent from 2024. It has a demo and it's two bucks. Let's check out the gameplay. How juicy it is. I think for 2024 the level of juiciness is just not enough. See, this is one I was unsure about cuz I feel like if it was more polished, if it was juicier, it could have way way more um it could have way more reviews but I think the juiciness level that I'm seeing here gives me um zero reviews vibes and I'm indeed correct. Let's check out the next one. Cosmic, a journey among shadows. Like this one looks a lot more polished. Really nice neon graphic art style. But the fact that it looks great on screenshots doesn't necessarily mean that it looks great in motion. So we also have to check it out in motion.

The trailer even has sound effects. Hm. What do we make of this? It's uh it's 1650. That's quite expensive and it's came out in 2025. I feel like platformers in 2025 is like very difficult. This could be a positive outlier potentially. So I want to be careful with my guess here. Let's watch more of the trailer. Here's the thing, right? If you wanted to play something like this in 2025, there would already be better options available. There are like two Ori games. There's like Hollow Knight. I don't think this one did too super well. Not because it's bad but just because it doesn't meet the standards you need in this genre to make it. So I'm thinking

I'm thinking 78 and if they got very very lucky, maybe it's 500 but I'm locking in the 78. Oh, it's 18. Yikes, that's brutal. See, it's it's it's a very interesting but also very painful game to play. It's like um I'm sure some of you will find it disheartening but at the same time you can also see that there are a lot of games like this on Steam that you're not really competing with. Like if you really try, you can do something that looks better than this. Let's be real. This one has five reviews. Oh, it has 36. I mean, it's a bit of a distinction without a distinction. Let's check out what I missed here. I mean, it's nine bucks. Oh, and it's very old. Corridor 7. 1994. So it's a um it's a bit of a classic apparently or something like that, very old game. And

it has a publisher. The fact that it has a publisher should always tell you that it's probably not zero or not close to zero because most publishers would be a bit embarrassed to like publish a game that has only gets like five reviews. So, if you have a publisher and everybody at the publishing team gives the game a review, then you should already be at at least at something like 10. So, if I had taken my time here, then I should could have guessed this my fault. Let's see what we get next. And you can also see that not all games are available in my region and because the button brings me to a completely random game on Steam, occasionally it'll bring me just to a game that's not available in Germany. Here we have Bunker. It's an adventure action. It's not a horror game, is it? It is It is a horror game. It's 1 euro. It does not have a publisher. It came out in 2024. Let's check out the trailer.

No. I don't think I see need to see too much more. I would be surprised if it's 45. I'm going to go with five. Yeah. I'm sorry. I'm very, very sorry. Dumb is Survivor. So, this must have been after Vampire Survivors and indeed it came out in 2025. It's two bucks. It doesn't look too bad. Let's see how juicy it is. Juiciness is what I'm really trying to look at. No, no, no, no, no. So, the sounds are the sounds are like the the gun sounded like a pea shooter. This, unfortunately, I think has six reviews. 46 if they got lucky, but it's indeed six. Let's check out the next one. Row row. Okay, let's be careful. It's only one buck. So, it the price does make a difference. If it's cheaper, it usually sells quite a bit more, especially if it's like very cheap. Let's see how juicy it is. [Music]

It looks too alien. You don't really understand what's going on and that's why I'm giving it 14 and I am correct. Moving on to the next one. Dude, the next one. Gardeheim. This one is a platformer in 2024. You cannot release a platformer with this style in 2024 and expect it to do super well. So, it's definitely not above 51. I think it's actually I mean, it's two bucks. It's two bucks. Could be 51. Let's check out the trailer. No, it's not 51. It's zero. Gubikamily Gold Edition. Another platformer. See how many platformers there are. I understand all of the people warning of making a platformer now. There are a lot of platformers. Very nice art. See, they put so much effort into the art. It does have a publisher. It's 15 usually it's 75% off. Let's

check out the trailer. [Music] So, Gold Edition kind of tells me that there's been a different edition before. Why would you make a Gold Edition if the previous edition didn't do well? The trailer is well made. What is that? What is that? It's random feature list scrolling through the screen. Maybe I should make it so that this is all the hidden cuz this is obviously quite a quite a heavy clue. So, I should not be able to see this. I'm going to fix this in one of the next versions of the plugin. But that was obviously quite a strong hint that this was at least critically well received.

So, I think my intuition was right here that this is a positive outlier. It could be it's either 730 or it's 3,000. I'm having a bit of a hard time seeing the 3,000. I think I'm locking in the 700. It is the 3,000. Not bad. Not bad. Nice, nice, nice. Next one. Quick Mortis. I I don't know what this is. It's nine bucks for a game that looks like this. This has 15. Yeah. Cat Warfare. It's free It's free to play. Check out the trailer. Hm. Hm. Does not have a publisher. Farmex. And it came out in 2020.

Unfortunately, I hope I'm wrong. I'm just going to click the five. It's 252. That is That's way more than I expected. And to be fair, this game is a lot better than other games we had a look at so far. It also looks a lot more fun in terms of gameplay. So, I I think I it would have been possible to guess that one correctly. I am just not skilled enough at review guesser yet. But I'm sure I'll get there. I'll I'll become a review guesser pro. I'm telling you, Emma. I'm a grind this review guesser game till I'm a pro review guesser. I find it really educational. It's quite, quite interesting. Counter Terrorist Agency. Hm. Counter Terrorist Agency lets you fight international terrorism and prevent attacks all over the world. It does have two publishers. It's 15 bucks. [Music] It's a strategy simulator game. Has an expensive

opening a slight slightly more effort opening cinematic. [Music] Cool music, cool maps. Quite a lot of systems here, quite a lot of depth. Skill tree. This is This is three digits. I think this three digits. Oh, who's the greatest review guesser? Next one. Next one. Next one. I'm so addicted to this game. This one has three. Next one. Wonderous Shade. Isn't this so interesting? Um, I think all of the screenshots look very samey and this came out in 2024. Uh, it's early access. It hasn't been

updated for 18 months. This has This has one. Yeah. I'm so sorry. Louis Charles in the Louvre. Explore museums' spooky attic after hours as the ghost of the little kid. I don't know. I'm bad at reading. It's exploration puzzle rogue-like with extremely noisy graphics. It's not not that they are super bad. They're just very They're very cluttery, very saturated noise all over the place. I think this is zero. Yeah, unfortunately. Unfortunately, I'm right. Galactic Protection Squad episode one. It's a VR game. That is an important hint cuz surprisingly the baseline for VR games seems to be a lot higher. It's two developers. 2020. The capsule art is a bit crap. [Music]

So, there's a very big red flag here and that is laggy trailer footage. Games with laggy trailer footage, in my experience, always do really poorly. This is I'm locking in the five. Mhm. Zodiac Landing. For some reason I don't feel like I have to look at too much more. I think this is probably one, but just to be sure, let's have a quick look at the trailer. It looks boring. It's one. It is correct. Next one. Maru Expedition can we can fly? This one. Let's check out the trailer. It does have a publisher, so it's not zero. It can't have zero reviews. Otherwise, that would be so embarrassing for the publisher. [Music] Wait, does this one actually have zero

despite having a publisher? It's free to play. It does definitely not have zero. It does have 140. Indeed it does. Indeed it does. Evil Awaits version 1.3 update new game plus. So, the fact that it got updates means that it didn't do super poorly. Came out in 2024. It's a cinematic action horror game for 15 bucks. It has cool monsters. The trailer starts with action immediately. You wouldn't believe how rare this is. Like for 90% of the games we just had a look at, the trailer does not start with action. It starts with some BS and I have to skip ahead. Here I don't have to skip ahead. That's that's a win.

Combat looks satisfying. It has voice acting. I think this has 700 733. Oops. Oops. Oops. Oops. I think it's the price. I think those would have done much better with a lower price. I think I could have guessed this one correctly. It would have been possible to guess this one. Monster Con. No, don't mention the extension dread. So funky art style. It's I think it's appealing, but what it's what is it about? It's a visual novel LGBTQ+ dating sim. Nice. Catchy music, but what is it? Can you find love at the nerdiest convention ever? Monster Con goes back to the multiplayer drafting sim formula. I think I think this game has a lot of cool good things going for it. The thing that is a bit problematic is that it's difficult to see what it is exactly. Find it

difficult to see what it is exactly at first glance. And it's 15 bucks. That's quite expensive. So I'm I could be completely wrong about this one, but I'll give it 50. It has 1,500. Let's see if there's some clues I overlooked that could have made me guess the one correctly. And you can see that uh ex-spotting these positive outliers is extremely difficult cuz your brain gets so trained on just guessing low cuz most games are low. So that when you see a positive outlier, it's very very hard. Yeah, I mean it's very solid art. It's extremely solid art and the trailer's well made. It starts with action. It Ah, yeah. It do- it does have like a cinematic animation opening that is typically something that points to having more than 100 reviews. Yeah, maybe maybe 50 is just a bit Well, it was just a bit low for this one, I guess. Yeah. Hyper body. Does it have a publisher? It's VR and it's free.

It looks not like it has a lot of reviews. I'm going to give it 10. Yeah. Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. Okay, this one once again looks solid. Solid art style. Constant pixel size. Colors that don't immediately hurt your eyes. Let's check out the trailer. [Music] How juicy is it? Unfortunately, the trailer did not convince me this is that people are going to buy this for nine bucks in 2024. Mm. Let's It's one, isn't it? Ah, it is. It is. It is. A place far away. These are very difficult cuz I don't play these kind of games. So the ones that I

don't play as often, I'm more often wrong about. This came out in 2025, so I don't feel like this looks just right for a 25 game. Maybe the nostalgia factor. But it's 10 bucks also. Let's see the trailer. Does it start with something interesting? Not really. It's one. Unfortunately, I'm right. Gun Quest. This one is four. In the other waters. This looks like it could be a positive outlier. It has a publisher. It won some kind of indie game award. Like we can't get rid of that. If it's in the trailer, then it's in the trailer. Okay, so this is uh obviously this makes me believe it did quite quite a quite a couple of numbers, right? If it got endorsed by like awards and [ __ ] It got covered by Rock, Paper, Shotgun.

Has a really good art style. It's really well made. Sound design is good. It does have really good audio. Okay, what it's what is it about? Play as an artificial intelligence guiding a standard ba ba ba through a beautiful mysterious alien ocean. A non-violent sci-fi story. Enter world of wonder, fear, and vulnerability. Actually, I think this one goes on my wish list. This looks interesting. I like exploration games. Is it already out? It came out in 2020 for 15. That's a bit expensive, but also like a confident price. I I will say that I spotted positive outlier here and I'm a lock in 1,900.

And that is indeed correct. Wow. Hey, wow. We got a positive outlier right. I feel like these if you guess the positive outliers right, that should be worth more points cuz anyone can get these here, right? This is probably 11, especially for 10 bucks. Sorry, this is not This is not going to work. Goblin Defense: Stealing Wood. It came out in 2013. So for 2013 graphics, this is not bad. It's three bucks. Let's see if it's juicy. How juicy are you? Oh, you don't have sound. Oh, you don't have a smooth trailer. Oh. Oh, what did I tell you about trailers that don't at least run at 30 FPS? Extremely extremely red flag. Unfortunately, it sold 60. I guess three. Fair enough. I mean, graphics graphics are good. Knight Solitaire. Mm. Could be a mobile port. Does Like the aspect ratio makes me think it's a mobile port. It's five bucks. This is a freaking

mobile port. I don't think it's going to work. I think it's 18. It is. Yeah. So you kind of get the idea? Unfortunately, I got to go. I just wanted to get in a quick round and show you this. I will release the Chrome plug-in in the hopefully near future after I've worked on it a little bit more. I have some cool ideas of what I want to do with it. And there will probably be more episodes of this. Let me know if you like this format, if we should do more. I think it's extremely fun to play at least. Hopefully it's fun to watch. And I think it's extremely educational. Like even though it's very painful to see how poorly a lot of these games do, I think it's extremely extremely extremely educational for game developers. Um I find it super interesting. Let me know what you think in the comments and I will see you in the next one. Cheers.