Is Going Viral All Luck?

Key insights

6 slides

Strategic approach

Marketing success relies on balancing owned, paid, and earned media types.

Developers can systematically reduce reliance on chance by categorizing marketing efforts into these three types.

Key Insight. Marketing success relies on a balance of three media types: Owned (your own channels), Paid (ads), and Earned (organic viral exposure).

Unpredictable but powerful

Earned media is unpredictable but can be optimized by targeting specific, passionate niches.

Viral social media posts or influencer coverage offer high visibility. Developers should focus on creating specialized, high-quality products that resonate with specific audiences.

Targeted Approach. Earned media, such as viral Reddit posts, is unpredictable but can be optimized by targeting specific, passionate niches rather than attempting to appeal to a broad, casual audience.

Increasing probability

Developers can increase viral success by creating games aligned with known audience preferences.

Consistent engagement in relevant communities also improves the chances of organic discovery.

Strategic Alignment. Developers can increase the probability of viral success by creating games that align with known audience preferences, such as city builders on Steam, and by consistently engaging in relevant communities.

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Summary

Marketing a video game is often perceived as a game of chance, particularly when developers achieve viral success through platforms like Reddit. However, the primary thesis is that while viral moments involve an element of luck, they are not entirely random. By categorizing marketing efforts into owned, paid, and earned media, developers can systematically reduce their reliance on chance and increase the probability of success through strategic planning and consistent execution.

Earned media, such as viral social media posts or influencer coverage, offers high visibility but remains the most unpredictable category. To mitigate this volatility, developers should focus on creating specialized, high-quality products that resonate with specific, passionate audiences. Rather than attempting to appeal to a broad, casual demographic, developers who target niche communities—such as fans of specific genres or subcultures—significantly improve their chances of organic discovery. Furthermore, success in earned media is often the result of diligent preparation, including understanding platform-specific etiquette and engaging with communities consistently over time.

To build a robust marketing strategy, developers must balance earned media with owned and paid channels. Owned media, consisting of mailing lists, Discord servers, and social media followings, provides a predictable, controlled connection to an audience, though it requires substantial time to cultivate. Paid media offers a reliable, albeit costly, alternative that guarantees visibility without the risk of moderator intervention. Ultimately, a successful marketing approach integrates all three categories: leveraging owned media for stability, using paid media for targeted reach, and optimizing the product and messaging to maximize the potential for earned, viral growth.