Do Wishlists Get Old?

The primary purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the validity of the "old wishlist" theory, which posits that early Steam wishlists lose their conversion value over time, leading developers to delay page creation. By examining the performance data of the 2021 action game Song of Iron, the analysis demonstrates that there is no empirical evidence to support the claim that wishlists degrade in quality or conversion potential as they age.

The study utilizes Steamworks cohort data to track conversion rates across different time periods. The findings reveal that conversion rates for Song of Iron remained relatively flat, with an average of 8.02% and a standard deviation of only 2%. While some months showed higher or lower conversion, these fluctuations did not correlate with the age of the wishlist. The analysis concludes that perceived "old" wishlists are not inherently less valuable; rather, low conversion is typically a symptom of a mismatch between player expectations and the final product, or a lack of market fit.

The research highlights that developers should not fear early engagement, as the visibility gained from long-term marketing efforts is essential for indie success. Furthermore, the analysis addresses the role of demos, characterizing them as a "canary in the coal mine" that accurately reflects potential sales performance rather than a cause of poor conversion. Ultimately, the data suggests that wishlists represent potential rather than a guarantee of sales. Success is determined by the quality and appeal of the game itself, and developers are encouraged to launch their Steam pages as soon as they have a clear genre, established art direction, and representative gameplay footage to maximize their marketing window.