Brutally Honest #112: UA in the Post IDFA World

This analysis examines the dynamics of user acquisition (UA) and cost-per-install (CPI) trends in the mobile gaming industry following Apple’s App Tracking Transparency (ATT) changes. The primary thesis focuses on the inevitability of CPI inflation during the scaling process, particularly during soft launches, and provides a comparative look at how different genres and geographic regions react to sustained marketing spend.

Key data points illustrate the rapid escalation of costs over a 30-day period. For a fantasy-themed PVP brawler, CPIs in the United Kingdom and Germany rose from $1.20 on the first day to $5.00 by day 30 at a consistent daily budget. In contrast, a merge game targeting a female audience saw much steeper inflation, with costs jumping from $3.00 to $14.00 over the same period. Findings indicate that broader target audiences generally experience slower CPI increases, while smaller geographic markets like Denmark reach saturation and cost peaks much faster than larger markets like Germany.

The scope of the analysis covers Western European markets, including the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland, during the 2024 calendar year. It specifically highlights the hybrid-casual segment, using the success of Supermarket Manager Simulator as a case study. This title generated $2 million in its first month by leveraging organic hype from PC platforms like Steam and social media trends on TikTok.

Methodological insights are derived from real-world campaign management and internal benchmarks. The findings suggest that successful UA in the current landscape requires a multi-channel approach, particularly utilizing TikTok for organic-to-paid scaling and implementing deeper metagame mechanics to support higher acquisition costs. The analysis concludes that while the fundamental framework for soft launching has not changed, the speed of audience saturation and the necessity of creative testing have intensified in the post-IDFA environment.