Is the VR game market expected to grow in the next years?

The sources present a deeply divided outlook: while several market research firms project strong double-digit growth for the VR gaming market over the next 5–10 years, developer surveys, platform-holder behavior, and recent sales data point to a market that remains niche, crowded, and struggling to retain users and justify large-scale investment.

Market Size Estimates and Growth Projections

Grand View Research (2025) projects the virtual reality in gaming market was valued at $32.5B in 2024 and is expected to grow from $52.4B in 2026 to $109.6B by 2030, representing a CAGR of 21.6%82. SNS Insider (2025) offers an even larger estimate, valuing the VR in Gaming Market at $42.03 billion in 2025 and forecasting it will reach $426.82 billion by 203583. AWS Marketplace (2025) values the market at $38.77 billion in 2024 and projects $194.17 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 30.8%93. Statista (2026) projects the worldwide VR market will reach US$50.9bn in 2026, with revenue expected to exhibit an annual growth rate (CAGR 2026–2030) of 10.50%92. Fortune Business Insights (2025) values the global virtual reality market at USD 20.83 billion in 2025 and projects it will reach USD 26.71 billion81.

Xsolla (2024), citing the 2023 Unity Gaming Report, states: "With a projected market revenue of $31.1 billion in 2023 and user penetration expected to reach 32.6% by 2027, VR holds immense potential for shaping the future of gaming"19. InvestGame / BCG (2025) shows "Cloud and VR" growing at a 16% CAGR from 2023 to 2028E, though it notes that "VR includes only Meta Quest game sales; other VR game sales are included in the PC or console categories"26.

Newzoo (2024) describes VR as "a growth market" but immediately qualifies: "it faces multiple challenges, specifically in retaining newly acquired users and keeping them active"7. In its 2023 report, Newzoo states: "VR is on track for steady hardware and software growth" and "Standalone headsets are on track for healthy growth, thanks to movements from Apple and Meta"111213.

Hardware Sales and Installed Base

Udonis (2025) reports that "2020 was the peak hit with an estimated ~20 million lifetime units, but newer devices haven't yet surpassed that. Analysts expect a modest return to growth in 2025 (perhaps ~6–7 million VR devices sold in 2025 vs ~5.9M in 2024), especially if Apple's entry spurs competition"5. Newzoo (2022) notes that "the VR install base is growing faster than ever before"19 and cites a "CAGR 2019-2024 of the global active VR HW install base"19.

GameDiscoverCo (2026) provides a more sobering view of recent sales: "if we filter Steam releases by 'VR-only' games across all of 2025, we get the following GDCo estimates, with only four paid titles selling >100k copies"15.

Developer and Platform-Holder Sentiment

Game Developers Conference (2020) found that "one quarter (25 percent) said VR" would be the dominant immersive reality technology in 5 years, while "32 percent" said AR and "19 percent expect AR and VR to be equally popular"16. A ResetEra report (2026) notes: "Survey says over half of developers consider VR market on decline or stagnation"86.

GameDiscoverCo (2026) reports that "first-parties are pulling back on funding. And Meta's insistence that it was the way we would be consuming content in the future has morphed into VR as a stepping stone into AR/AI"15. A YouTube analysis (2026) states: "Meta has shut down almost all of their first-party game studios conducted sweeping layoffs and publicly declared they are shifting strategies"91.

Newzoo (2024) observes: "Apple's strategy focuses on computing over games and on AR over VR" while "Meta is continuing to underline games as a unique value proposition"111213.

Challenges and Headwinds

Newzoo (2024) identifies several barriers: "The increased inflationary pressures continue to tighten consumer budgets, making investing in new hardware untenable. VR also lacks a wealth of exclusive content, leading to another barrier to more widespread adoption"7.

Unity (2022) notes: "Part of this might be people's resistance to the 'box-on-the-face' problem – so far, VR gaming may have seemed hard to access or even anti-social to some players"2.

GameDiscoverCo (2026) concludes: "the lack of multitasking and the headset social isolation has stymied VR's rise. And the idea that large, premium paid blockbuster games might be standalone profitable on these devices? Sadly, not so much…"15

Epyllion (2025, 2026) includes a section titled "A (Brief) Review of AR/VR Forecasts and Disappointments" in its reports, signaling that past projections have not materialized as expected17182022.

Dutch Games Monitor (2022) notes that "Expectations for the VR market are more positive than three years ago. There have been a number of successes, hardware has become more affordable and console providers are also putting more focus on the segment"10.

Newzoo (2021) projected the global games market would reach $218.7 billion in 2024 with a CAGR of +8.7% from 2019 to 20243. Embracer Group (2025) states the video games market reached USD 202 billion in 2025, "breaking the 200bn level for the first time ever"25. Ampere Analysis (2025) reports spending on games content and services hit $199.4bn in 2024, growing 3.5% year-on-year, and forecasts the market to reach $200bn for the first time in 2025313943.

Gaps in Coverage

The available sources do not provide a single, authoritative, up-to-date (2025–2026) forecast specifically for the VR gaming software market from a major industry analyst like Newzoo or IDC — the most recent Newzoo VR-specific data cited is from 2024, and the detailed 2024 VR special focus report is referenced but its specific numbers are behind a paywall7111213. The web sources (Grand View Research, SNS Insider, AWS Marketplace) offer widely divergent estimates (from $20.8B to $42B for 2024–2025), and none of them are library-grade industry reports. There is no coverage of VR gaming revenue by platform (Quest vs. PS VR2 vs. PC VR) for 2025–2026, and no data on VR game development costs or profitability trends. Developer sentiment data is limited to 2020 (GDC) and a 2026 ResetEra post, with no recent large-scale developer survey.