Q1 2026 CHARTBOOK From the Wealth Management Chief Investment Office: A guide to interpreting the economy & markets

W WEALTH CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICE The Wealth Chief Investment Office is dedicated to helping our clients achieve financial wellness through the delivery of insightful thought leadership, disciplined management of high quality, diversified portfolios tailored to each client’s needs and objectives, and differentiated Wealth Planning services.

| 01 | CIO Overview 04 | | --- | --- | | 02 | Market Recap 05 | | 03 | 2026 Outlook & Key Themes 09 | | 04 | Macro Overview 35 | | CONTENTS 05 | Equities 44 | | 06 | Fixed Income 62 | | 07 | Alternative Investments 69 | | 08 | 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections 72 | | 09 | Portfolio Strategy 76 | | 10 | The Long-Term Perspective 97 |

tdown that distorted economic data, and a volatile Q4 2025 closed on a constructive note, capping a resilient year. Despite a record 43-day U.S. government shutdown that distorted economic data, and a volatile November largely attributed to artificial intelligence (AI) bubble fears, markets rallied as major asset classes ended at or near all-time highs. ech names and Al enthusiasm. Metals were standout U.S. large-cap equities, as measured by the S&P 500, delivered a total return for the year of 17.9%, driven by tech names and AIenthusiasm. Metals were standout performers, with gold and silver surging 65% and 146%, respectively. Gold peaked as investors sought a safe haven amid trade-war jitters and central banks continued stockpiling bullion. For the year, international equities outpaced U.S. markets with returns exceeding 30%, while U.S. fixed income posted a solid 7% gain. The consumer landscape remains K-shaped: affluent households continue to drive spending, while lower me consumers remain cautious. Against this backdrop, -income consumers remain cautious. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered two 25-basis-point cuts in October and December—three reductions in total for the year, marking the first time since 2024. Minutes from the December Federal Open Market committee (FOMC) meeting highlighted growing internal divisions, with a still-hawkish minority voicing concerns over lingering inflation risks.

oint cuts in October and December—three reductions in total for the year, marking the first time since 2024. Minutes from the December Federal Open Market committee (FOMC) meeting highlighted growing internal divisions, with a still-hawkish minority voicing concerns over lingering inflation risks. Investors were reminded once again of the tried-and-true first principles of remaining disciplined and avoiding the typical behavioral mistakes that come with attempting to time the markets. Having a diversified portfolio in sync with one’s financial plan is the best way to weather market storms, while staying invested through market cycles over time. The U.S. economy continues its careful balancing act in early 2026 —maintaining growth while remaining agile enough to respond to changing conditions. As AI and disruptive technologies continue to gain traction across industries, we are witnessing an innovation wave that demands similar agility from investors and businesses alike. Just as a skater must look ahead while remaining acutely aware of their positioning and the ice’s ever-changing texture, today’s investment landscape requires a blend of confidence in the trajectory of transformative technologies and The nimbleness to adapt as market dynamics evolve.

nesses alike. Just as a skater must look ahead while remaining acutely aware of their positioning and the ice’s ever-changing texture, today’s investment landscape requires a blend of confidence in the trajectory of transformative technologies and The nimbleness to adapt as market dynamics evolve. The AI revolution isn’t simply propelling us forward—it’s reshaping the very surface we’re gliding across, creating both opportunities for growth and moments that test our ability to maintain composure through transitions. In this environment, investors are seekin g to harness this momentum without sacrificing the precision and balance that separate a graceful performance from a stumble. rom a stumble. 2026 should bring its own set of surprises and lessons. The U.S. economy may continue to benefit from the AI infrastructure b uildout, but face challenges from a slowing labor market and weaker fundamentals for low-income consumers. Market volatility may pick up, given a higher bar from elevated valuations and potential for firmer inflation. Overall, our view is that we are transitioning into a new era of prolific and accelerating innovation and disruption, bringing opportunities and risks for the economy, markets, and society at large. isks for January 16, 2026 Niladri ‘Neel’ Mukherjee Chief Investment Officer, TIAA Wealth Management